Sunday Night Football Preview: Cowboys, 49ers Renew Rivalry Under the Lights

NFL fans are in for a treat as Week 5 features one of the best Sunday Night Football matchups of the season. The Dallas Cowboys head west to The Bay to battle the undefeated San Francisco 49ers.

These franchises are bitter rivals with 39 matchups -- split at 19-19-1 -- that date back to 1960. Dallas and San Fran have collided in six NFC Championship games, including three in the 1990s.

The Cowboys-49ers battles have been recently rejuvenated with animosity. San Francisco knocked Dallas out of the postseason in the last two seasons. Ahead of Sunday's clash, the Cowboys' head coach Mike McCarthy acknowledged the high stakes of the matchup:

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The rivalry alone makes this an exciting SNF matchup. However, both teams are also contenders in the NFC. According to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL conference odds, the Cowboys have the third-shortest odds to win the NFC (+450) while the Niners are the favorite to reign supreme (+240).

San Francisco (4-0) has been tabbed as a 3.5-point favorite against Dallas (3-1), per FanDuel's NFL odds. Here's what to know for the highly-anticipated matchup, including the most favorable bets.

Cowboys at 49ers Week 5 Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

• Spread: 49ers -3.5 (-110)
• Total: 45
• Moneyline:
  • 49ers: -184
  • Cowboys: +154

Cowboys at 49ers Week 5 Matchup Analysis

numberFire's nERD-based power rankings have the Cowboys (seventh) and 49ers (second) among the top teams in the NFL. Both teams also rank in the top 13 of numberFire's adjusted offensive and defensive ratings. This is an elite matchup by all accounts as both teams boast complete rosters with the ability to excel on both sides of the ball.

Dallas had concerns entering Week 4 following its 28-16 loss against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cowboys responded by dismantling the New England Patriots 38-3. Dallas handed Bill Belichick -- the GOAT -- the largest loss of his career; what a way to rebound from a deflating Week 4 loss. The Cowboys now hold the second-best average point differential per game (+20.8).

San Francisco has simply rolled from Week 1 to Week 4. The 49ers have a point differential per game of +16.8 points (third) and rank third in overall 31.3 points per game (PPG). Christian McCaffrey has continued to dominate with a league-leading 459 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns. He also ranks third with 118 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) -- the difference between rushing yards and expected rushing yards per attempt. McCaffrey has pulled away as the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year, priced at +200 by FanDuel's NFL award odds.

With that said, let's dig into the matchup. Of course, there will be elite matchups all over the field, including Micah Parsons against Trent Williams. Rushing the passer will be a major key on Sunday night. The Cowboys lead the NFL with a 43.0% defensive pressure rate, and the Niners rank fourth at 35.0%, per Pro Football Focus (PFF).

San Fran's offensive line could have the upper hand as it holds the third-best offensive line pressure rate (23.0%). Dallas sits at 25.0%, but their allowed sack rate is lower at 8.0% compared to the 49ers at 16.0%.

Both run defenses have looked susceptible at times; the Cowboys have numberFire's 12th-best adjusted run defense while the Niners have the 15th-worst unit. This is an interesting stat, though. San Francisco ranks 11th in rushing yards allowed per carry while Dallas is 27th in the metric.

Ultimately, I believe the 49ers' run game will win the day, leading to a cover against the spread. I still cannot forget about the Cardinals running rampant on the Cowboys in Week 3, totaling 222 yards on the ground. San Francisco has covered the last two head-to-head matchups.

Cowboys vs. 49ers Prop Bets

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Brandon Aiyuk Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Brandon Aiyuk enjoyed a breakout 2022 season with a career-high 1,015 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Through three outings this season, Aiyuk is still on an upward trajectory. He could earn his first Pro Bowl or All-Pro honors at this rate.

That may come as a surprise to some, but Aiyuk has been that good. The former Arizona State Sun Devils wideout has 320 receiving yards, which is an average of 106.7 yards per game. He dominated in Week 4 against the Arizona Cardinals with a career-high 148 receiving yards. Aiyuk made defenders look silly all game long:

The advanced stats only hammer home Aiyuk's dominance. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he has a 27.4% catch rate over expected (CROE). For reference, Richie James led the league with a 11.0% CROE last season. Aiyuk is averaging 35.8 receiving yards over expected (RecYOE), showcasing his ability to rack up yards after the catch.

The fourth-year wideout is also getting targets in bulk with a 27.4% target share (tarMS%), and he's regularly receiving down the field shots with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 15.9 yards. Aiyuk also has a 39.6% share of the Niners' air yards (AY%) -- the 12th-best mark in the league.

Aiyuk is clearly excelling, but will that translate to a big night against the Cowboys? Dallas boasts numberFire's third-best pass defense and opponents have a -0.45 expected points added per dropback (EPA/DB) -- the top mark in the NFL.

This will be a tall task for Aiyuk, but I'm still riding with the emerging receiver. The Cowboys will likely possess one of the league's top pass defenses from start to finish this season, even without Trevon Diggs thanks to the emergence of Daron Bland.

However, we should look at Dallas' lack of competition. Who is the best receiver they have played? It has to be Garrett Wilson, but he had Zach Wilson throwing the ball. Still, Wilson totaled 83 receiving yards thanks to a 68-yard catch-and-run. The Cowboys have also faced the New York Giants, Cardinals, and New England Patriots, who all feature weak passing attacks.

San Francisco has the most efficient passing offense that Dallas has seen; the 49ers are third in numberFire's schedule-adjusted passing efficiency. I like the over for Aiyuk's receiving total.

Tony Pollard Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The Cowboys have made a clear effort to run the ball more often. They rank third in rushing attempts per game compared to seventh last season. Of course, this has led to more carries for Tony Pollard, especially with the departure of Ezekiel Elliott.

Pollard is averaging 18.3 carries per game compared to 12.0 last season. His increased role and a change in play-calling has helped limit Dak Prescott's turnovers. According to PFF, only 1.3% of Prescott's attempts have been turnover worthy plays (second in NFL).

Of course, most would argue Prescott's turnover struggles led to Dallas' downfall last season. The evident issue certainly contributed to the Cowboys' season-ending loss against the 49ers as Prescott threw two interceptions. Don't expect Dallas to change its formula for Week 5. They will likely continue to run the rock, meaning Pollard could be in store for a busy day.

Will Pollard be successful, though? As previously mentioned, San Francisco ranks 11th in rushing yards allowed per carry. However, some stats suggest the Niners' run defense could be susceptible.

The 49ers' run defense hold the third-worst mark with 0.09 expected points added per rush attempt (EPA/Att). According to ESPN's win rate rankings, San Francisco is only 16th in run stuff rate.

The Cowboys' offensive line is convincing me to take the over for Pollard's rushing yard total. Dallas ranks fourth in run block win rate. Most importantly, the unit could finally be healthy for Week 5. Since selecting Tyler Smith in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, the Cowboys have yet to have their best-five on the field due to various injuries. It could finally come to fruition, and that could be a scary sight for the Niners' run defense.

Smith has shined in his second season and comes off an excellent performance, graded at 93.7 via PFF. Tyron Smith was dominating before he missed the last two games, and Zack Martin is, well, Zack Martin -- a generational guard.

With Dallas' offensive line finally rounding into the form and some potential cracks in the 49ers' run defense, give me the over for Pollard.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.