Subway Series Preview: Betting Odds, Player Props and Key Trends

The New York Yankees and New York Mets are slated to play a two-game Subway Series this week on June 13th and June 14th. The Yankees hold a 38-29 record but stand just third in the brutal AL East. They’re nine games behind the league-leading Tampa Bay Rays’ 48-21 record but would be leading either of the two Central Divisions with their record.

The Mets are fourth in their division and hold a 31-35 record as they trail the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves by 9 games. They’re 2-8 in their last 10 games after losing 7 straight in the early part of June.

Unfortunately for viewers of this series, both teams will be missing their MVP-candidate sluggers. Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge is recovering from a toe injury on the 10-day injured list, and Mets first baseman Pete Alonso is expected to miss three-to-four weeks with a bone bruise and sprain in his wrist. Alonso (22 HRs) and Judge (19) are two of the top contenders for the home run crown this season and currently rank first and third, respectively, in homers entering this series.

Here’s how the two teams stack up for their Subway Series.

Subway Series Betting Odds

Game 1 Betting Odds

Game 1 of the series will feature an epic pitching duel between the Yankees’ Luis Severino and Max Scherzer of the Mets, and the pitching matchup is even better for Wednesday as we'll see Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole square off.

Severino is still working his way back into form after missing the early part of the season with a lat strain, allowing a 5.75 ERA in his 4 starts. He currently holds an 18/7 K/BB ratio and a 1.33 WHIP headed into tonight’s game.

Scherzer carries a 5-2 record through his first 10 starts of 2023. He has a 3.71 ERA on the season with a 29/7 K/BB ratio to go with his 1.18 WHIP. He’s been heating up of late, too. His past three games -- at Coors Field, versus the Philadelphia Phillies, and facing the Braves in Atlanta -- have been rough matchups. Against those opponents, he posted a 3.20 ERA with 27 strikeouts to just a single walk.

The game will take place on Tuesday night at 7:10 p.m. Eastern and will be aired on TBS. Here’s how the two teams shake out for Game 1 of their Subway Series.

Yankees vs. Mets Game 1 Betting Odds: Moneyline, Spread, and Total

• Moneyline:
  • Yankees: +128
  • Mets: -152
• Spread: Mets -1.5 (+134)
• Total: 7.5

Yankees vs. Mets Game 1 Projections

Win projections via numberFire

• Win Odds: The Mets are 54.8% likely to win in Game 1 of the series.

Yankees vs. Mets Game 1 Props

• Player Strikeouts:
  • Luis Severino: 5.5
  • Max Scherzer: 7.5
• To Hit A Home Run:
  • Giancarlo Stanton: +340
  • Anthony Rizzo: +400
  • Francisco Alvarez: +500
  • Willie Calhoun: +500
  • Francisco Lindor: +480
  • Gleyber Torres: +540
  • Jake Bauers: +630
  • Brett Baty: +600
  • Brandon Nimmo: +630
  • Anthony Volpe: +680
  • Billy McKinney: +680
  • Starling Marte: +830
  • DJ LeMahieu: +830
• To Record an RBI:
  • Francisco Lindor: +130
  • Starling Marte: +155
  • Giancarlo Stanton: +160
  • Anthony Rizzo: +170
  • Jeff McNeil: +165
  • Brett Baty: +170
  • Francisco Alvarez: +170
  • Brandon Nimmo: +175
  • Mark Canha: +210
  • Gleyber Torres: +210
  • Willie Calhoun: +210
  • Jake Bauers: +230
• To Record a Stolen Base:
  • Starling Marte: +310
  • Anthony Volpe: +360
  • Gleyber Torres: +510
  • Jake Bauers: +790
  • Francisco Lindor: +790
  • Mark Canha: +940
  • Brandon Nimmo: +940
  • Anthony Rizzo: +940

Yankees vs. Mets Advanced Stats Breakdown

The Yankees have battled through injuries for much of the season and have faced some of the toughest competition in baseball. According to Baseball Reference’s strength-of-schedule metric, no team in the league has faced a tougher slate of opponents than the Yankees have so far this season.

Aaron Judge will be missed, and the team will need to get more consistent production out of players like Gleyber Torres, the recently-returned Giancarlo Stanton, and rookie Anthony Volpe. Judge’s 2.8 Offensive Wins Above Replacement (oWAR) top the combined marks of Torres (1.0), Anthony Rizzo (0.8), Volpe (0.4), and Stanton (0.2) on the season.

The Mets have a team slash line of .238/.321/.394 against right-handed pitchers so far this season. It’s been an underwhelming campaign for the team at the plate so far, and the absence of Alonso won’t help that. Alonso is one of just two players on the team (Brandon Nimmo the other) with an oWAR above 1.5 on the season.

The recent emergence of Francisco Alvarez has been helpful; his .543 slugging percentage just barely trails Alonso’s .546 mark. However, the team still needs players like Francisco Lindor and Starling Marte to break out of their slumps if they want to compete for the NL East title.

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