St. Thomas vs South Dakota State College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Summit League Tournament

The No. 2 seed Saint Thomas Tommies (23-8, 12-4 Summit League) take on the No. 7 seed South Dakota State Jackrabbits (14-17, 7-9 Summit League) in the Summit League tournament Thursday at Denny Sanford Premier Center, starting at 9:30 p.m. ET. Both teams will attempt to take one step closer to securing an automatic place in the NCAA Tournament.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

St. Thomas vs. South Dakota State Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Thursday, March 5, 2026
• Game time: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV channel: Summit League Network
• Location: Sioux Falls, South Dakota
• Arena: Denny Sanford Premier Center

St. Thomas vs. South Dakota State Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: St. Thomas win (78.7%)

St. Thomas is a 5.5-point favorite over South Dakota State on Thursday and the over/under is set at 150.5 points. Here's a few betting insights and trends to help you make an informed wager on the matchup.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

St. Thomas vs. South Dakota State: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• St. Thomas has put together a 14-14-0 record against the spread this season.
• South Dakota State has put together a 13-15-0 ATS record so far this year.
• As a 5.5-point underdog or more in 2025-26, South Dakota State is 4-1 against the spread compared to the 10-7 ATS record St. Thomas puts up as a 5.5-point favorite.
• The Tommies have covered the spread in a lower percentage of their home games than road games. They have covered six times in 12 games at home, and they've covered eight times in 14 games when playing on the road.
• Against the spread, the Jackrabbits have had better results on the road (7-6-0) than at home (5-5-0).
• St. Thomas has nine wins against the spread in 16 conference games this season.
• South Dakota State has seven wins against the spread in 16 Summit League games this year.

St. Thomas vs. South Dakota State: Moneyline Betting Stats

• St. Thomas has been chosen as the moneyline favorite in 23 games this year and has walked away with the win 19 times (82.6%) in those games.
• The Tommies have a win-loss record of 14-2 when favored by -295 or better by bookmakers this year.
• South Dakota State has lost all eight of the games it has been listed as the moneyline underdog this season.
• The Jackrabbits have not yet won a game when entering as a moneyline underdog with odds of +235 or longer in three chances.
• St. Thomas has an implied victory probability of 74.7% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

St. Thomas vs. South Dakota State Head-to-Head Comparison

• St. Thomas' +350 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 11.3 points per game) is a result of scoring 83.3 points per game (38th in college basketball) while allowing 72 per outing (127th in college basketball).
• St. Thomas' leading scorer, Nolan Minessale, ranks 37th in the nation scoring 19.8 points per game.
• South Dakota State is outscoring opponents by 3.1 points per game, with a +95 scoring differential overall. It puts up 75.7 points per game (182nd in college basketball) and gives up 72.6 per contest (143rd in college basketball).
• Joe Sayler's 14.5 points per game paces South Dakota State and ranks 343rd in college basketball.
• The Tommies pull down 30.4 rebounds per game (266th in college basketball) compared to the 31.1 of their opponents.
• Nick Janowski tops the team with 5.2 rebounds per game (511th in college basketball action).
• The Jackrabbits are 63rd in college basketball at 34.3 rebounds per game. That's 4.6 more than the 29.7 their opponents average.
• Damon Wilkinson averages 6.5 rebounds per game (217th in college basketball) to lead the Jackrabbits.
• St. Thomas puts up 108.5 points per 100 possessions (13th in college basketball), while allowing 93.8 points per 100 possessions (143rd in college basketball).
• The Jackrabbits rank 141st in college basketball with 99.3 points scored per 100 possessions, and 183rd defensively with 95.3 points conceded per 100 possessions.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!