South Florida-Syracuse: Spread, Total, Breakdown and Best Bet for Boca Raton Bowl

About halfway between Miami and Palm Beach sits the coastal enclave of Boca Raton.

Annually since 2014, the diverse Florida city has hosted the RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl. Utilizing FAU Stadium on the beautiful campus of the Florida Atlantic Owls, this postseason contest offers an experience that is equally unique and competitive.

This year's Boca Raton Bowl will feature proud programs from opposite sides of the country. Representing the ACC, the Syracuse Orange are looking for their initial bowl win of the current decade. Across the way, 'Cuse will face the South Florida Bulls of the American Conference. USF is looking to finish above .500 for the first time time since 2018.

Prior to Thursday's kickoff in Boca Raton, let us dive into the odds and line, placing an emphasis on the most valuable of the traditional betting markets.

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Boca Raton Bowl Betting Odds: Spread, Moneyline and Total

Kickoff: Thursday (Dec. 21), 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+

Location: FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, FL

Spread: Syracuse -2.5 (-105)

Moneyline:

• South Florida: +120
• Syracuse: -122

Total: 56.5

South Florida vs. Syracuse Analysis

Making the short drive over from Tampa, the Bulls are 6-6 in head coach Alex Golesh's first season at the helm. Additionally, this is South Florida's first trip bowling since 2018. A win here for USF could prove vital for guiding the program into a successful tenure under Golesh.

As the pride of Central New York, the Orange are typically known for their basketball teams rather than prowess on the gridiron. Still, Syracuse has showcased many memorable football squads, although 2023 was not their finest season. Dino Babers did not finish his eighth year leading the Orange, as he was fired last month after starting 2023 at 5-6. As such, tight ends coach Nunzio Campanile has been elevated to interim head coach duties.

In 2023, South Florida showcased a prolific offense, scoring to the tune of 30.8 points per game (PPG). Led by sophomore signal-caller Bynum Brown (23:11 TD-to-INT ratio), the Bulls produced a lofty 455.3 total yards of offense per game. However, USF's defense has not been up to snuff in 2023, surrendering 34.9 PPG.

Syracuse enters this matchup with a dynamic ground attack. Producing north of 40 carries per game, the Orange boast several talented options in the backfield, but none better than tailback LeQuint Allen. Thus far in 2023, the explosive sophomore has accounted for 104.9 scrimmage yards per game to go along with 10 total touchdowns. Simply, Allen will be the key focus of South Florida's defense.

As mentioned, the Bulls have their deficiencies on D. In the current campaign, USF has given up an average of 4.4 yards per carry (YPC) in addition to 2.2 rushing scores per game. These are traits that ultimately can be exploited by the Orange. In his second stint as an interim coach, will Coach Campanile place Syracuse's offensive emphasis on the ground?

At numberFire, the college football power rankings provide quite a bit of separation between these respective programs. There, the Orange (-3.19 nERD) land 74th in FBS while South Florida (-14.23 nERD) shows up much further down at 111th overall. Still, FanDuel Sportsbook has the moneylines priced fairly shortly (USF +102/SYR -122) for the Boca Raton Bowl.

Naturally, this contest on Florida's Atlantic coast is viewed more narrowly since SU will be without 2023 starting quarterback Garrett Shrader (shoulder), whose season was cut short after recently undergoing surgery. With that, dual-threat sophomore Carlos Del Rio-Wilson (93.3 rating/5.0 YPC in seven games) will take the snaps on Thursday for the Orange.

South Florida vs. Syracuse Analysis Best Bet

Syracuse Moneyline (-122)

With the spread (SYR -2.5) and odds as they currently are, I find 'Cuse moneyline (-122) reflecting the highest value. Priced very near standard odds, I don't mind paying the minimal juice for a win straight up as opposed to laying 2.5 points (-105) against the spread. In the name of cashing tickets, I am simply banking for a Syracuse victory outright in Boca Raton.

Back at numberFire, the CFB game projections propose an estimated score of 34.28-25.90 in favor of the Orange. That is a victory margin of nearly nine points for Syracuse, dwarfing the set spread of 2.5. I can confidently say that my thinking here is in line with nF's model.

Last year, 'Cuse reached as high as No. 14 on the AP poll. Fast forward to now, and the program is at a bit of a crossroads after parting ways with Coach Babers. Still, I think they will handle business in their second game under Coach Campanile, setting the tone for a new era. Give me the Orange straight up.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.