Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Thursday Night (Buccaneers at Falcons)

Week 5 gets rolling with an NFC South matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are 2.5-point favorites in a game that's showing a 43.5 over/under, per the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

Baker Mayfield ($16,000) has been a pleasant surprise in fantasy football this year, coming into this week as the QB4 while averaging 22.7 FanDuel points per game. Most notably, he already has two ceiling games of 29+ FanDuel points, taking advantage of plus matchups against the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles. While he's less likely to reach those heights in an average matchup against the Falcons (numberFIre's 16th-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense), this game could have elevated play volume as one of the week's best spots in both pace and pass rate. Despite Mayfield presumably earning a high MVP roster percentage, he's arguably the safest choice on a slate where other options have volume and/or matchup hurdles.

Speaking of which, Bijan Robinson ($14,500) would've been a shoo-in MVP candidate at the start of the season, but he hasn't hit 15 FanDuel points in a game yet, and his most recent usage was especially concerning. Robinson has seen his adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) drop every week, (28, 24, 20, and 15), and he's gone from dominating backfield snaps in Week 1 (90.0%) to what's looking more like a timeshare (60.8%) with Tyler Allgeier in Week 4. It's worth noting that Robinson has popped up on the injury report in both Week 4 (shoulder) and this week (hamstring) -- despite ultimately being cleared both times -- which could suggest his recent usage is health-related. Tampa Bay ranks 32nd in adjusted rushed defense, so Robinson still has to be considered strongly at MVP with the hopes his volume returns -- but the risks are pretty clear.

Mike Evans ($14,000) and Chris Godwin ($12,500) continue to be a formidable one-two punch for Mayfield in the Bucs' passing attack. Evans is earning a 22.7% target share and 43.1% air yards share, and he's Baker's favorite target near the goal line with a 31.3% red zone target share and 60.0% end zone target share. Godwin leads the team in target share (26.6%) and yards per route run (2.56). Both players have demonstrated MVP-level ceilings this year and are easy to get on board with tonight.

Kirk Cousins ($13,500) has the slate's third-best score in our NFL DFS projections and is the QB on the home favorite, so he deserves a nod pretty much by default. However, he's averaging just -0.05 expected points added per drop back, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and he's averaging 11.6 FanDuel points per game in an offense that's 22nd in pass rate over expectation. Add in a matchup versus Tampa 9th-ranked adjusted pass defense, and Atlanta will be even more inclined to take a run-heavy approach. In all, a lot will have to go right for Cousins to emerge as MVP.

If a Falcons pass-catcher is going to have a spike week, it's Drake London ($11,500). London has a team-high 27.4% target share, and if we remove his quieter Week 1, that bumps up to an elite 31.1%. He's also led all Atlanta pass-catchers in air yards share (38.5%) and red zone target share (50.0%) over the last three games.

Flex Targets

Rachaad White ($10,500) and Bucky Irving ($10,000) -- Could we be starting to see a changing of the guard in the Tampa Bay backfield? In Week 4, White held a smaller edge over Irving in adjusted opportunities (16 to 14) and snap rate (59.5% to 40.5%) than in prior games. Irving has been far more efficient on the ground in rushing yards over expectation per carry (0.32 to -0.88) this year, too. As a prominent pass-catcher, White probably isn't going away completely, but it's possible we're at least nearing a more even split.

Chase McLaughlin ($9,500) and Younghoe Koo ($9,500) -- The kickers get a bump playing in a dome, and given the fairly low total, a game with modest scoring would benefit these two. Both McLaughlin and Koo have cracked double-digit fantasy points multiple times this year.

Tyler Allgeier ($9,000) -- Allgeier is an intriguing flex in case the increased role we saw last week ends up sticking. He played a season-best 41.2% of the snaps and logged 12 adjusted opportunities. Overall, Allgeier has also been the more efficient runner than Bijan Robinson in both rushing yards over expectation per carry (0.94 to -0.33) and rushing success rate (51.9% to 38.2%). The short week could further point to a split backfield if Robinson is still working through his recent ailments.

Kyle Pitts ($9,000) -- Any optimism for Pitts before the season has disappeared just a month in after putting up a goose egg in Week 4. He's seen an underwhelming 13.3% target share over four games, and last week's 66.7% route rate was a season-low. He's not completely off the table at this salary but is very hard to get excited about.

Darnell Mooney ($8,000) -- Mooney is second on Atlanta with a 21.2% target share and is averaging 3.8 downfield targets (10+ air yards) per game, helping him to a 32.6% air yards share. We'll happily take that role at this salary.

Cade Otton ($8,000) -- Otton is running 80.3% of the routes and has a 21.5% target share over the last two weeks. Injuries to wideouts Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer could further bump up his targets.

Ray-Ray McCloud ($7,500) -- McCloud has a 19.5% target share this season. Over the last three weeks, he's logged a 93.9% route rate and has firmly established a starting role in the Falcons' offense. However, he hasn't exceeded 52 receiving yards in a game yet.

Sterling Shepard ($7,000) -- Shepard recorded a 64.0% route rate and 10.6% target share last week and could see a similar role tonight due to Bucs dealing with injuries in their WR room.

Get ready for Thursday Night Football! All customers get one No Sweat Token for a Same Game Parlay on the Bucs vs Falcons game happening October 3rd. See here for full terms and conditions.

FanDuel customers can also bet on Squares every Thursday Night. Know all the odds, for all the numbers. It's the same Super Bowl Squares game you've played before — only way better. Learn more at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.