Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Thursday Night (Bills at Dolphins)

Week 1 kicked the season off with a compelling selection of island games, and this week's opener will keep that streak going, presenting an AFC East tilt between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins on Thursday night. Miami is a 2.5-point favorite, and the matchup is showing a 48.5 over/under.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

Josh Allen ($17,000) scored 31.2 FanDuel points in Week 1, throwing for a pair of touchdowns while also adding two with his legs. He predictably leads the single-game slate in our NFL DFS projections. Allen is the no-brainer option at MVP but will also be far and away the most popular choice.

If you're looking to avoid the mega chalk at MVP, Tyreek Hill ($16,500) is arguably the next-best option. Hill was a ball hog in the passing game last week, catching 7 of 12 targets for 130 yards and a score (25.5 FanDuel points). He finished with a 33.3% target share and 64.8% air yards share, well ahead of all other Dolphins pass-catchers in both categories. While Hill ought to garner plenty of attention in the multiplier slot, it's likely to still be at a fraction of Allen's MVP percentage.

De'Von Achane ($12,500) is listed as questionable after getting in a limited practice on Wednesday, but if he's active, he could have a boosted role with fellow running back Raheem Mostert already ruled out. Despite a 53.8% snap rate in Week 1, Achane logged a solid 24 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets), and his usage in the passing game was especially promising, as he was second on the team in targets (7) with a 19.4% share. The dynamic RB turned that workload into 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown (19.5 FanDuel points), and it's exciting to envision what he's capable of with even a slight bump in workload and snaps. Given that he'll be a game-time decision, he will likely have a smaller MVP roster percentage than he otherwise would.

Jaylen Waddle ($11,000) had disappointing volume in Week 1 with just 5 targets (13.9% share), but he made the most of it by catching all of them for 109 receiving yards (16.7 FanDuel points). Waddle did see three deep targets (10+ air yards), which helped him to a more encouraging 32.4% air yards share. He should see better usage moving forward and is projected for 8.7 targets, making him an intriguing contrarian MVP.

Flex Targets

Tua Tagovailoa ($14,000) -- Tua has the slate's second-best median projection behind Allen but to realistically emerge with the night's best score, he'll need to throw for 300-plus yards and multiple TDs while spreading the ball around a bit more between his pass-catchers. Considering the Bills allowed the fifth-fewest FanDuel points to QBs in 2023 and held Kyler Murray to just 14.2 FanDuel points in Week 1, this probably isn't the game to expect that kind of performance, leaving him as a better flex play than MVP.

James Cook ($12,000) -- Cook saw 25 adjusted opportunities and piled up 103 scrimmage yards in Week 1. The problem is Allen saw half of the red zone carries and was the one to score both rushing TDs, which puts a damper on Cook's weekly ceiling.

Keon Coleman ($10,000), Dalton Kincaid ($9,500), and Khalil Shakir ($10,500) -- All three players have receiving yardage prop lines between 40.5-44.5 yards on FanDuel Sportsbook. Coleman led the team in targets (5) last week, but it was hardly a dominant slice of the pie with a 21.7% target share and 28.9% air yards share. Although Kincaid had the worst box-score result of this trio, he still saw an 87.9% snap rate and 70.0% route rate, and he projects to lead Buffalo in targets (7.8) over Coleman (6.4) and Shakir (5.1). Khalil scored a TD in Week 1 but ran fewer routes than the other two.

Jeff Wilson ($6,500) and Jaylen Wright ($5,500) -- The usage of these two with Mostert out could be the biggest question of the slate. Wilson is the more likely candidate to step into Mostert's role, and that's backed by him have -165 touchdown odds. Wright was inactive in Week 1, making the rookie's role a complete wild card if he's active tonight. In the scenario where Achane is ruled out, both RBs would arguably vault into the MVP conversation as contrarian plays.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.