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Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Thursday Night (49ers at Seahawks)

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin

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Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Thursday Night (49ers at Seahawks)

We should have a fun matchup on our hands for Thursday Night Football between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. The 49ers are 3.5-point road favorites, and the total is a fairly high 48.5 points, per the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

Jordan Mason ($15,500) is averaging 24.2 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) per game and now gets to face a banged-up Seattle defense that could struggle tonight. As San Francisco's featured back, Mason has rumbled his way to 120.4 scrimmage yards per game and earned 74.3% of the team's red zone carries. Even with his limited role as a pass-catcher, the stage is set for a spike week where both the matchup and game script should work in Mason's favor.

Geno Smith ($14,500) is an appealing MVP option in the event his team is forced into comeback mode, and the Seahawks are first in pass rate over expectation to begin with. While Smith has been middle of the pack in efficiency, he leads the league in pass attempts per game (39.8) and passing yards per game (293.2), and he's even running a bit this year (29.2 rushing yards per game). He's scored 20+ FanDuel points in three of five weeks, and that's despite inexplicably throwing just one TD in each game thus far despite all that volume. This isn't an easy matchup versus the 49ers' seventh-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense, per numberFire's metrics, but the upside is there.

While the Seahawks loves to air it out, they would be wise to rely on running back Kenneth Walker III ($14,000), as the 49ers are much more vulnerable versus the run (23rd adjusted rush defense). Walker has averaged 23.0 adjusted opportunities across three games, and his usage as a receiver (51.8% route rate) keeps him involved regardless of game script. Seattle has stated it wants to get Walker the ball more, which is another promising sign for his Thursday outlook.

D.K. Metcalf ($12,000) already has two games with 20+ points on his resume this season, and while it would be nice if his 22.3% target share was higher, he's averaging 8.6 targets per game in this pass-happy attack. He also benefits from generating chunk plays off 4.2 downfield targets (10+ yards) per game, helping him to a lofty 40.8% air yards share. On a slate with a lot of big names, he probably won't see an especially high MVP roster percentage, too.

Predicting which San Francisco pass-catcher will have a big game in a given week is a headache, but Brandon Aiyuk ($11,000) and Deebo Samuel ($12,500) are both capable of leading the way in scoring. Aiyuk finally flashed that upside in Week 5 (21.7 FanDuel points) after seeing a season-high 12 targets (10 downfield). He's projected for the matchup's second-most targets (8.0) in our NFL DFS projections behind Metcalf (8.9). Samuel has been quiet over the past two weeks since returning from injury, but we shouldn't forget about the scoring potential he brings in his hybrid receiving/rushing role. His rushing plus receiving yards prop line is set at 72.5 yards.

Brock Purdy ($13,000) has been more of a floor play this season, but he did reach 25.8 FanDuel points behind 3 passing TDs in Week 3, so there's a path to a big score if Mason doesn't hog the touchdowns. Seattle's injuries extend into the pass rush and secondary, so it's entirely possible Purdy throws all over them, particularly if Geno and company are able to put up points on their end. Still, the more likely scenario is Purdy puts up a more flex-worthy score.

Flex Targets

George Kittle ($10,500) -- Kittle actually leads the 49ers in target share (23.6%) in the four games he's played and has scored 17.1, 12.5, and 16.4 FanDuel points over his last three. His 15.7% air yards share makes him less likely than others to lead the slate in scoring, but a multi-touchdown game can't be ruled out considering his team-best 36.0% red zone target share.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($10,000) -- JSN is sporting a solid 20.7% target share and 23.9% air yards share. While he hasn't put up exciting numbers outside of an outlier performance in Week 2, he has a promising 31.3% red zone target share.

Tyler Lockett ($9,500) -- Lockett remains the No. 3 option for Seattle (16.6% target share).

Jauan Jennings ($9,000) -- Jennings has a 15.4% target share and 59.5% route rate when Aiyuk, Samuel, and Kittle are healthy. He's absolutely playable at this salary, but we probably aren't seeing anything close to that Week 3 outburst again without some injuries ahead of him.

Matthew Wright ($9,000) and Jason Myers ($8,500) -- I'm not sure the kickers will be able to keep pace with the other options in what could be a high-scoring contest. Fill-in kicker Matthew Wright could be busy for the 49ers if they roll against the injured Seahawks D, though.

Zach Charbonnet ($8,500) -- Charbonnet is averaging 12.7 adjusted opportunities and a 37.2% snap rate in games with Walker active.

San Francisco 49ers D/ST ($8,000) -- Geno Smith is by no means a bad quarterback, but anyone throwing this often opens the door for turnovers and sacks, particularly against a strong defense like this. Smith was sacked seven times by the New York Giants last week.

Noah Fant ($7,500) -- Fant is logging a 64.2% route rate and 9.3% target share. He's exceeded 30 receiving yards just once this year and almost certainly needs a TD to pay off his salary.


Get ready for Thursday Night Football! All customers get one No Sweat Token for a Same Game Parlay on the 49ers vs Seahawks game happening October 10th. See here for full terms and conditions.

FanDuel customers can also bet on Squares every Thursday Night. Know all the odds, for all the numbers. It's the same Super Bowl Squares game you've played before — only way better. Learn more at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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