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Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Sunday Night (Cowboys at Steelers)

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin

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Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Sunday Night (Cowboys at Steelers)

The Dallas Cowboys head east to face the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football. The Steelers are 2.5-point home favorites, and the over/under is set at 43.5, per the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

Justin Fields ($15,000) was quiet in low-scoring matchups through the first two weeks, but he posted 19.4 FanDuel points in Week 3 and then finally flashed that upside we've seen before with a 35.0-point outburst last week.

This matchup checks out for the dual-threat QB, as Dallas ranks just 24th in schedule-adjusted total defense, per numberFire, and will be without DeMarcus Lawrence (injured reserve) and likely Micah Parsons (ankle). While the Cowboys are just 19th in adjusted offense so far, this game projects to play at the fastest pace on the entire slate, per our Brandon Gdula, which could help elevate this matchup over its modest total.

Dallas will need to score points to get Pittsburgh out its typical run-heavy ways -- the Steelers are 28th in pass rate over expectation -- but if they do, it could unlock the version of Fields we saw in Week 4.

While CeeDee Lamb ($17,000) will have to contend with Pittsburgh's 13th-ranked adjusted pass defense, the volume should be there, and he's pegged for the game's most targets (10.3) in our NFL DFS projections. Lamb curiously saw just a 20.0% target share over the first three games , but that finally jumped to 30.8% in Week 4, which is more what we were expecting entering the year. He's still showing a team-best 2.31 yards per route run, and plenty of productive fantasy days should be ahead -- including perhaps tonight. Brandin Cooks has been ruled out, which could further bump up Lamb's opportunities.

Dak Prescott ($15,500) went off for 32.9 FanDuel points in Week 3 but has otherwise been held below 17 FanDuel points in his other three games. That spike week was aided by a negative game script that forced him into 51 pass attempts, and while that's less like against the Steelers, the aforementioned banged-up Dallas defense and up-tempo nature of this game could help Dak to a strong fantasy performance. Alex Highsmith (groin) remains out for the Steelers, which should also help the Dallas offense move the chains.

And speaking of Steelers injuries, Jaylen Warren is expected to be out and Cordarrelle Patterson sat out practice on Wednesday and Thursday, so Najee Harris ($12,000) could be in store for a heavy workload. Over the first four weeks, Harris has averaged 24.5 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) while earning 50.0% of the red zone carries. His main competition near the goal line is Fields (45.8% red zone rush share), so the absence of Warren and perhaps Patterson won't change that, but it's easy to see him getting a boatload of opportunities with practice squad call-up Aaron Shampklin being the next man up. Harris' rushing plus receiving yards prop is set at 83.5 yards.

Finally, George Pickens ($12,500) is the last realistic contender for MVP. The low-volume Pittsburgh passing attack has hurt Pickens, but when Fields aired it out last week, he caught 7 of 11 targets for 113 yards. Overall, Pickens is the obvious No. 1 target for Fields with a 28.2% target share, 54.6% air yards share, and 2.84 yards per route run.

Flex Targets

Rico Dowdle ($11,500) -- Dowdle led the Cowboys' backfield with 13 adjusted opportunities, but he actually saw fewer snaps (47.1%) than Hunter Luepke (51.0%). Meanwhile, Ezekiel Elliott logged just a 17.6% snap rate and seems to be an afterthought at this point. Coming up against a Steelers defense that's allowed the second-fewest FanDuel points to RBs and is numberFire's top adjusted rush defense, it's hard to see Dowdle paying off at this salary.

Jake Ferguson ($10,500) -- Ferguson is looking like the No. 2 option in the Dallas passing attack. He's seen 18 targets across his last two games for a rock-solid 24.0% target share.

Jalen Tolbert ($10,000) -- Tolbert projects for 5.3 targets with Cooks out, which is the game's fourth-best mark. While his 10.7% target share since Ferguson's return in Week 3 isn't great, he's running 79.5% of the routes in that sample.

Brandon Aubrey ($9,500) and Chris Boswell ($9,000) -- Particularly if you think this game is more likely to go under its total, the kickers are strong options to consider. Aubrey has reached double-digit FanDuel points in every game thus far.

Pat Freiermuth ($8,500) -- Beyond Pickens, Freiermuth is the only other Pittsburgh pass-catcher with a double-digit target share (19.4%).


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Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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