Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Sunday Night (Bengals at Giants)

Sunday Night Football will feature a desperate Cincinnati Bengals team hitting the road to take on the New York Giants. The Bengals are 3.5-point favorites, and the two squads are combining for a 47.5-point total, per the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

Following a slower start to 2024, Ja'Marr Chase ($17,000) has put up 29.8, 16.0, and 39.3 FanDuel points across the last three weeks. Over that span, Chase has logged a good-but-not-great 23.4% target share, but we'll happily take these results behind 3.60 yards per route run, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He did flash a 30.8% target share last week, which is hopefully a sign of more volume to come. He's an easy click at MVP.

Chase's stellar results have naturally coincided with strong play from Joe Burrow ($16,000), who's posted 0.40 expected points per drop back over the last three games. While Cincinnati isn't playing at a particularly fast pace, they rank third in pass rate over expectation, so Burrow should continue to air it out at a high clip. Quarterbacks tend to have higher MVP roster percentages, but it's easy to see a scenario where Burrow emerges with the slate's top score against a roughly average Giants defense.

Daniel Jones ($14,000) has quietly recorded between 18-22 FanDuel points in three of five games, and that's without him cashing in any rushing TDs yet despite a 40% red zone rush share. While we can never rule out Jones face-planting on us, a ceiling game is very much in play against a Bengals D that's 31st in schedule-adjusted total defense and 29th in adjusted pass defense, per numberFire's metrics.

Ja'Marr's partner in crime, Tee Higgins ($13,000), has been busy since returning in Week 3, boasting a 28.0% target share, 41.0% air yards share, and 29.4% red zone target share. While he hasn't quite had the same gaudy results as Chase, he busted out for 24.8 FanDuel points last week, and his usage should lead to plenty more spike weeks ahead.

Malik Nabers (concussion protocol) has been ruled out for Sunday's game, which could lead to another big outing from Darius Slayton ($8,500). Slayton did his best Nabers impression with the star rookie sidelined in Week 5, hauling in 8 of 11 targets for 122 yards and a TD for 25.2 FanDuel points. His usage amounted to a 35.5% target share and 73.3% air yards share. Given how far down he is on the salary list, Slayton probably won't have as high a MVP roster percentage as he should, which makes him all the more intriguing.

Running back Devin Singletary ($9,500) is still recovering from a groin injury and sounds like a shaky bet to play, so Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($9,500) could be in line for a featured role again. In Week 5, Tracy went off for 130 scrimmage yards behind 22 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) and a 62.0% snap rate. His snaps could be even higher this week after fellow Big Blue RB Eric Gray got himself phased out of that game with an early fumble in Week 5. Cincinnati has allowed the highest rushing success rate to opposing RBs, further putting Tracy in the MVP conversation. However, if Singletary ultimately plays, we'll probably get a split backfield, leaving both as flex options.

Flex Targets

Wan'Dale Robinson ($11,000) -- Even with Nabers out last week, Robinson's role remained mostly unchanged as a high-volume, low-aDOT receiver. His 28.1% target share gives him a solid floor, but he's averaging just 0.8 downfield targets (10+ yards) per game, so an MVP-level performance is unlikely. He does own a promising 40.9% red zone target share, though.

Chase Brown ($10,500) and Zack Moss ($10,000) -- Both of Cincy's running backs are good to go for Sunday's matchup, which caps the ceilings of both players. Over the last two weeks, Moss has maintained his edge in snaps (63.8% to 37.0%), but the two are nearly even in adjusted opportunities (20.0 to 19.5). If we factor in targets, Brown has actually held the advantage in red zone opportunities (42.1% to 26.3%) over this sample. Brown has been the more efficient rusher this year, so hopefully the snaps begin to shift in his favor, but that's no guarantee tonight.

Evan McPherson ($9,000) and Greg Joseph ($9,000) -- Given that the Bengals have both an elite offense and poor defense, there's a good chance we get a high-scoring contest, which makes the kickers less likely to sneak into the optimal lineup. McPherson has the better projection on the road favorite.

Andrei Iosivas ($8,500) -- Since Higgins returned, Iosivas has still logged a hefty 80.0% route rate over the last three games, but his target share has dipped to 9.3%.

Mike Gesicki ($7,500) and Erick All Jr. ($7,000) -- While All has out-snapped Gesicki in three of the past four games, it's Gesicki who has run more routes over that span (53.2% to 34.0%). It's hard to rely on either one, but Gesicki still seems like the better option of the two.

Theo Johnson ($7,000) -- Johnson had season-highs in route rate (74.4%) and target share (16.1%) with Nabers out last week. He's a solid value play at this salary.

Jalin Hyatt ($5,500) -- Hyatt saw a significant boost in route rate (66.7%) as another beneficiary of Nabers being sidelined, but it didn't result in any targets. He hasn't made a catch all year and is a pure dart throw.

Opt-in to the Gronk Profit Spike and apply a 30% Profit Boost to an Anytime Touchdown Scorer wager on any NFL game happening October 13th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.