Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Sunday Night (Bears at Texans)

Sunday Night Football heads to Houston in Week 2 for a matchup that pits the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year against this season's favorite to win the award. The Houston Texans are 6.5-point favorites over the Chicago Bears, and the over/under is set at 45.5.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

This could be another Joe Mixon ($14,500) game for the Texans after the veteran running back rumbled for 178 scrimmage yards and a touchdown off a whopping 36 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) in the opening week. The Bears improved their secondary in the offseason but might still be vulnerable against the run, and that's how things played out in Week 1 as they enter the weekend with numberFire's top adjusted pass defense and 19th-ranked adjusted rush defense. It remains to be seen how this shakes out over the long haul, but any RB with the potential for this kind of volume is a shoo-in MVP candidate.

Even with Mixon hogging the ball last week, C.J. Stroud ($16,000) still posted a solid 18.7 FanDuel points behind 234 passing yards and a pair of TDs. He put up the seventh-most expected points added per drop back (0.17) and fourth-best completion percentage over expected (12.6%) among starting QBs. While I wouldn't rule out an MVP performance, Stroud figures to be chalky, and this doesn't feel like a matchup for a spike week.

On the other hand, Caleb Williams ($13,000) is an intriguing MVP option, if only because he's likely to have a lower roster percentage -- particularly for a quarterback -- after face-planting in his debut for 7.2 FanDuel points. Make no mistake, his numbers were ugly across the board, but he's still +150 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Texans come in ranked 29th in adjusted total defense after coughing up 27.1 FanDuel points to Anthony Richardson, and being contrarian at MVP can vault you up the leaderboard (and avoid ties) when it works out.

One of the biggest questions surrounding the Texans' offense entering the season was how the targets would shake out in their stacked wide receiver room. Well, one week in and Nico Collins ($13,500) still looks like the top dog after leading the team with a 25.8% target share and 50.5% air yards share. His receiving yardage prop line is also the team's highest at 67.5. Although any of Houston's starting WRs could go off for a big game in a given week, Collins still looks like the one to click on first, and his MVP roster percentage probably won't be high due to his teammates. Nico was limited in practice due to an illness on Thursday, which is something to monitor, but it doesn't sound like something that should keep him from playing.

Meanwhile, the Bears' injury report is a mess, and both Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Particularly if Allen sits, it will boost the outlook for D.J. Moore ($12,000), who saw a 27.6% target share and 23.8% air yards share in Week 1. Moore also led the team in route rate (87.9%). None of Chicago's pass-catchers posted noteworthy box-score results following Caleb's poor debut, but Moore could be a major beneficiary if the rookie improves this week.

Flex Targets

Stefon Diggs ($12,500) and Tank Dell ($11,500) -- These two still have plenty of weekly upside even if Collins figures to lead the way in targets. Diggs scored two touchdowns to boost his fantasy output last week, but Dell had the advantage in both target share (22.6% to 19.4%) and especially air yards share (44.8% to 3.8%), making the latter the preferred option.

Keenan Allen ($11,000) -- Allen led the Bears with 11 targets in Week 1 and even boasted a 53.6% air yards share. If he's cleared to play, he has some fringe MVP appeal if you think Caleb will be more productive.

D'Andre Swift ($10,500) -- Swift logged just 12 adjusted opportunities in what was mostly a negative game script despite the Bears getting the win. While he dominated backfield snaps (67.9%), being a road underdog by nearly a touchdown doesn't bode well for his workload.

Rome Odunze ($10,000) -- Between Allen and Odunze, the rookie seems like the one more unlikely to play, and he logged an underwhelming 13.8% target share in his debut.

Dalton Schultz ($9,500) -- Schultz missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Even if he's active, he's fighting for scraps behind the Texans' wideouts, making him merely a touchdown-or-bust play.

Cole Kmet ($9,500) -- Kmet saw just one target in Week 1 and actually played fewer snaps in a split with fellow TE Gerald Everett. It's hard to get excited about him even if the wideouts are ruled out.

Houston Texans D/ST ($8,500) -- Houston's defense wasn't anything special last week, but another poor performance from Caleb can't be ruled out.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.