Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Monday Night (Seahawks at Lions)

The Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions will face off in the second Monday night game, and it's pretty safe to say this is the matchup that will garner the vast majority of eyeballs. The Lions are 4.5-point favorites, and the over/under is set at 46.5, per the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

Geno Smith ($13,000) has logged 18.8, 20.9, and 13.4 FanDuel points this year, and he should continue to post solid numbers in an offense that ranks second in pass rate over expectation. Given that the Lions are numberFire's fourth-best adjusted rush defense and have allowed the fewest FanDuel points to RBs, the Seahawks will be even more inclined to air it out. Smith has this matchup's top score in our NFL DFS projections.

A good fantasy performance from Geno could mean an even better one for D.K. Metcalf ($13,500). Metcalf has scored 20+ FanDuel points in back-to-back games, and he leads the team in target share (23.8%) and air yards share (44.0%). Given that wideouts tend to get far less attention at MVP compared to quarterbacks, he's one of my favorite choices.

The Seahawks rank second in adjusted pass defense and have allowed the fewest FanDuel points to opposing WRs, but they still haven't really been tested, either, after facing the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots , and Tua-less Miami Dolphins. Amon-Ra St. Brown ($15,000) boasts a 32.4% target share and 36.9% air yards share after seeing 6, 18, and 8 targets through three games. Unsurprisingly, he's projected for the game's most targets (9.6), receptions (6.5), and receiving yards (80.2).

Although Jared Goff ($12,500) ranks second in our projections, he's been more of a floor play so far, falling short of 16 FanDuel points in all three weeks. Both teams play at a fast pace, which could up Goff's volume, but this is still an offense that's just 25th in pass rate over expectation. They figure to rely on the run game as home favorites.

With that in mind, Jahmyr Gibbs ($14,000) and David Montgomery ($12,000) probably have more MVP appeal than Goff, though the split backfield isn't ideal for one of them hitting the ceiling we need. Montgomery has a slight edge in adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) per game (22.3 to 22.0), but Gibbs is getting more snaps (53.6% to 45.0%). While Montgomery has been a touchdown machine for the Lions since joining the team in 2023, the two backs are actually splitting carries inside the 10-yard line this year (6-5 in favor of Montgomery). One of them needs to be on the right side of touchdown luck to come away with a slate-best score, but it's certainly in the range of outcomes.

Flex Targets

Kenneth Walker III ($11,500) -- Walker can be considered as a fringe MVP, but it's tough to see him posting a spike week coming off injury in a brutal matchup. That being said, he doesn't have an injury designation after practicing in full over the weekend, and he saw 26 adjusted opportunities and a 66.7% snap rate in Week 1.

Jameson Williams ($11,500) -- Although Williams is showing a 22.5% target share and 44.2% air yards share, he caught just 1 of 3 targets for 9 yards in Week 3. Facing this defense could make it difficult for a bounce-back performance, but he's projected for 5.4 targets and still looks like the most reliable Detroit pass-catcher behind St. Brown.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($10,000) -- JSN is running as many routes as Metcalf (90.3%) and ranks second on Seattle in target share (20.8%) and air yards share (27.2%). It's worth noting that 16 of his 21 targets came in Week 2, so he hasn't exactly shown a high floor, but his usage remains promising overall.

Tyler Lockett ($9,500) -- Lockett has a 16.8% target share and 18.2% air yards share as the No. 3 option in the Seahawks' passing attack. JSN is the preferred play at nearly the same salary.

Sam LaPorta ($9,500) -- Despite suffering an ankle injury last week, LaPorta got two full practices in and doesn't have an injury designation. He posted a 77.3% route rate over the first two weeks, so things should theoretically improve, but he's one of several top tight ends to disappoint in fantasy so far this season.

Jake Bates ($8,500) and Jason Myers ($8,500) -- Kicking in a dome helps the outlooks of Bates and Myers. They're easier to buy into than most of the other options below $9000.

Noah Fant ($8,000) -- Fant has a 67.3% route rate and 12.9% target share, which is enough to get him into touchdown-or-bust territory.

Zach Charbonnet ($8,000) -- Charbonnet saw 14 adjusted opportunities and a 33.3% snap rate with Walker healthy in Week 1, and there's a chance he's earned more touches after being the featured back over the last two weeks.

Get ready for Monday Night Football! All customers get two Profit Boost Tokens (each 30%, one for a LIVE wager and one for a 3+ leg Same Game Parlay) on either NFL game happening September 30th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.