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Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Monday Night (Giants at Steelers)

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin

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Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Monday Night (Giants at Steelers)

Week 8 comes to a close with what could be a low-scoring contest between the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh is a 5.5-point favorite in a matchup with a 36.5 over/under.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

Malik Nabers ($16,500) is a prime MVP candidate in a game where touchdowns could be hard to come by. In his five healthy games, Nabers has an absurd 36.8% target share, 51.9% air yards share, 33.3% red zone target share, and 66.7% end zone target share, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Pittsburgh hasn't allowed a ton of fantasy points to opposing passing attacks, but they're actually just 18th in schedule-adjusted pass defense, per numberFire's metrics, giving added hope for Nabers' outlook. Wide receivers don't tend to have especially high MVP roster percentages, too, which is another added bonus.

Last week, Russell Wilson ($15,500) rewarded Mike Tomlin in his Steelers debut versus the New York Jets by averaging 0.24 expected points added per drop back, but he was hardly perfect with poor marks in completion percentage over expected (-5.0%) and passing success rate (38.7%). Still, with the help of a rushing TD, Wilson was good enough to record 24.9 FanDuel points, and he's showing the top score in our NFL DFS projections. The hesitation with slotting him at MVP is this matchup against a Giants defense that's first in sack rate (12.6%) and eighth in QB pressure rate (36.4%), according to NFL's Next Gen Stats.

Daniel Jones ($14,000) is right behind Wilson in our projections but is tougher to get behind after falling below 13 FanDuel points in three of his last four outings. Jones ranks 27th in yards per pass attempt (6.0) and is averaging -0.13 expected points added per drop back. The loss of left tackle Andrew Thomas has PFF ranking the Giants' offensive line at 25th entering this week, as well. Jones' one saving grace is his ability to run as someone who's logging 7.1 rushes for 26.3 yards per game alongside a 38.5% red zone rush share. He does have three games with 18+ FanDuel points -- none of which included a rushing score -- so he can't be completely written off.

Najee Harris ($13,500) is coming off two straight games with 100+ rushing yards, and he also scored a TD in both instances. However, in Week 7, Harris split snaps with Jaylen Warren 50/50 for the first time this season. Despite that split, Harris still saw 23 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets), and his red zone rush share was up to 61.5% with Justin Fields out of the picture. The Giants are 27th in adjusted rush defense, too.

Following the previous four players, George Pickens ($12,500) is the one other guy projected for double-digit FanDuel points. Pickens with the big winner from Pittsburgh's change at QB, scoring a season-high 22.6 FanDuel points with a 90.3% route rate, 33.3% target share, and 68.9% air yards share.

Flex Targets

Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($11,500) and Devin Singletary ($10,500) -- Tracy seems to have overtaken Singletary in the Giants' backfield after holding a significant advantage over the latter in overall snap rate (67.3% to 21.8%) and first half snap rate (75.0% to 15.6%) last week. While Pittsburgh is first in adjusted rush defense, they've allowed the ninth-most FanDuel points per target to RBs, and Tracy also saw far more routes than Singletary (60.0% to 15.0%). At this salary, Singletary is tough to justify tonight.

Wan'Dale Robinson ($10,000) -- Robinson has a 28.8% target share and 44.4% red zone target share in five games with Nabers, but his 15.5% air yards share caps his upside. Although he should get peppered with targets like always, he probably needs a touchdown to crack the optimal lineup.

Jaylen Warren ($9,500) -- Warren saw season highs in adjusted opportunities (18) and snap rate (50.0%) in Week 7. Perhaps he's finally close to full strength after dealing with injuries for much of the season. He's an appealing option at this salary.

Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST ($9,000) and New York Giants D/ST ($9,000) -- Considering the matchup's very low total, both defense are in play, and don't be afraid to toss one into your MVP slot if you're making several lineups. The Steelers project better at home against the Giants' banged-up o-line and shaky quarterback play, but we shouldn't forget that the G-Men lead the NFL in sacks this year (31).

Chris Boswell ($8,500) and Greg Joseph ($8,500) -- Likewise, the kickers are solid value options for this TD-averse matchup. Boswell has missed just one kick this season and is tied for the third-most fantasy points among kickers.

Darius Slayton ($8,000) -- Slayton's usage takes the biggest hit when Nabers plays. He has a 32.8% target share with Nabers out compared to an 11.0% share otherwise. He did run a team-high 90.0% route rate last week, though.

Pat Freiermuth ($8,000) -- Freiermuth saw the Steelers' second-highest route rate last week (77.4%), but it amounted to just 3 targets (11.1% share). He's still the closest thing to a No. 2 option in this passing attack and projects for 4.3 targets.

Van Jefferson ($7,500) and Calvin Austin III ($7,500) -- Jefferson and Austin both ran over 60% of the routes in Week 7. They're dart throws projected for between 3-4 targets each.

Theo Johnson ($7,000) -- Although Johnson pretty consistently runs routes (67.3% rate), his 7.0% target share isn't very exciting. A true touchdown-or-bust play.


Get ready for Monday Night Football! All customers get a 25% Profit Boost Token for a LIVE wager on the New York Giants vs Pittsburgh Steelers NFL game happening October 28th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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