Should the Vikings Re-Sign Sam Darnold or Start JJ McCarthy in 2025?

Even if you're not a Minnesota Vikings fan, Monday night was tough to watch.

Sam Darnold regressed into his old self, taking 9 sacks on 49 drop backs as the Vikings lost to the Los Angeles Rams, 27-9, ending a 14-win season in miserable fashion.

Now, the focus shifts to 2025. Darnold is part of why they won 14 games, a mighty tough accomplishment, especially in such a tough division. So, should they re-sign Darnold? Franchise-tag him to buy an extra year of wiggle room? Or is it time to rip the band-aid off and turn straight to 2024 first-rounder J.J. McCarthy?

To me, the answer is pretty clear. McCarthy should be the guy going forward.

Sam Darnold's 2024 Statistics

Part of the calculus behind that decision is that Darnold's underlying numbers likely weren't as good as perception this year.

The Vikings finished the year 10th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted passing offense rankings. Their 0.17 Adjusted Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per play was less than half that of the league-leaders (the Baltimore Ravens at 0.40 and the Detroit Lions at 0.35).

That's where they ranked while having a solid infrastructure around Darnold in a top-notch play-caller and quality pass-catchers.

If Darnold were still on a 1-year, $10 million contract, you'll take that all day. It helped them win 14 games and nearly snag the 1 seed. But with the projected quarterback franchise tag cost at $41 million, according to OverTheCap, that's a different story.

JJ McCarthy's Outlook and Injury

The other key factor here is that the Vikings have a ready-made, lower-salaried alternative waiting in the wings in McCarthy.

McCarthy missed all of his rookie season due to a torn meniscus, on which he had a second operation in November. However, all reports have said he'll be ready for organized team activities in the spring.

McCarthy was a true talent coming out, according to my quarterback prospect model. In that, McCarthy ranks in the 95th percentile among quarterback prospects invited to the combine since 2010, based on his age, experience, and collegiate efficiency. That was the second-best mark in last year's class, trailing only Jayden Daniels. Obviously, Caleb Williams was also a better prospect once you factor in pedigree and film, but McCarthy had a good profile and went high in the draft.

If you put a player like that in a quality environment -- which the Vikings have proven they've got -- you can find upside that's hard to equal if you're paying big money to a quarterback who doesn't elevate his teammates. It's an upside swing, even if the floor is lower without having seen McCarthy in regular-season game action.

The Vikings' Quarterback Plan

Part of the appeal in franchise-tagging Darnold is it gives you insurance if McCarthy struggles. You've seen what he can do in the offense, and the returns were good.

I'd argue you could get that same insurance out of Daniel Jones at a much lower price tag.

Jones signed with the Vikings' practice squad this fall after being released by the New York Giants. They added him to the 53-man roster prior to the playoffs, though he was ultimately the emergency third quarterback Monday night.

Jones is a flawed quarterback; there's a reason he was benched by the Giants.

But the reality is that Jones has as many career top-15 finishes in Total NEP (which factors in both passing and rushing while deducting for expected points lost on sacks) as Darnold. Jones' best season in that metric -- eighth in 2022 -- was better than Darnold's ranking this year (13th).

If you want a quarterback who has struggled with other teams but has shown he can do something in the right circumstances, why not take the cheaper route and do so with Jones?

Jones is an unrestricted free agent, but his desire to stay with the Vikings -- given Kevin O'Connell's wizardry and McCarthy's uncertainty -- should be high. It's honestly a perfect marriage, if they can find a way to make it work.

It's never fun to change quarterbacks after a 14-win season where the team was so close to showing a ceiling. But eschewing Darnold in favor of McCarthy and Jones would leave the Vikings the cap space necessary to address an aging secondary and a poor run game, so in this case, the uncertain route does seem to be the optimal one.

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