Should Christian McCaffrey Be the First Overall Pick in Fantasy This Season?

Christian McCaffrey has been the best player in fantasy football before and should be picked as if he can be again in drafts this season.

The big topic of the past few weeks has been running backs -- and for good reason -- so much so that it sure does feel like fantasy football will be feeling the effects just as much as the league itself.

That's all to say that the one RB that is among the league's best, will be playing Week 1, and is utilized to the highest degree is none other than McCaffrey, who should be the top running back off the board and considered as early as No. 1 overall.

Let's dive into what McCaffrey brings to the table and where his potential is as he prepares for his first full season with the San Francisco 49ers.

Christian McCaffrey Fantasy Football Projection

(Projections via numberFire)

2023 Projected Stats: 226 rushes, 1,044.95 rushing yards, 9.6 rushing TDs, 87 receptions, 694.1 receiving yards, 5.4 receiving TDs
2023 Projected Points: 306.34 half-PPR points
numberFire Positional Projection: RB1

Chrisitan McCaffrey Fantasy Football Outlook

Back to Greatness

The injury woes that followed McCaffrey were real heading into 2023, and there were doubts about where to take him as he fell from his 1.01 spot that many were accustomed to.

In 2020 and 2021, McCaffrey missed a total of 23 games due to injury. This led to McCaffrey generally going second overall after Jonathan Taylor, which was still a big change after going first (unquestionably) in the two prior seasons.

So, the real question heading into 2022 was whether he could be that top guy again. While he didn't finish as the RB1, he did finish as a top option, leaving no reasons to worry.

In the 17 games he played, McCaffrey finished with 244 carries, 1,139 rushing yards, and 8 rushing touchdowns, and he added his usual production through the air, with 85 receptions, 741 receiving yards, and 5 receiving scores.

CMC totaled 313.86 fantasy points and averaged 18.5 points per game. He was back to being elite, finishing behind only Austin Ekeler by fewer than six points. McCaffrey racked up 13 total TDs while Ekeler finished with 18. Depending on how the 49ers' offense looks this year, McCaffrey should be able to keep up that consistency at the very least.

McCaffrey is back to being a lock as a top guy, and as he heads into his age-27 season, you should be that much more excited for what's to come.

Full Season on the 49ers

A full season with the 49ers can be what CMC needs to get back to being the unquestioned No. 1 in fantasy football, and we'll see it this season.

In his first six games with the Carolina Panthers, McCaffrey was good but not the special player he was in seasons prior, averaging 16.91 fantasy points per game. Now, that would have ranked him as the RB5 on a per-game basis, but that's not the CMC we've come to expect.

That all changed, of course, when he was moved by the Panthers, joining the 49ers for the final 11 games of the regular season and eventually the playoffs. McCaffrey went from a top-five guy to the top guy.

McCaffrey was able to play the same week he arrived in San Francisco but that was on a limited basis. The week after is when head coach Kyle Shanahan truly utilized him, and the result was outstanding at 36.3 points.

He'd go on to be an absolute force for the 49ers, as he had five games of 20-plus points on his way to averaging 19.31 points per game, which would have placed him as the RB1.

If you remove the outlier game where he played just 28% of snaps, CMC would have averaged 20.52 fantasy points per game -- the most of any non-QB.

That's a difference-maker. That's a fantasy-best player. And a full season of that should excite anyone drafting toward the top of the draft.

Taking an RB Early

Wide receivers are going early this year and have been an emphasis by drafters in the first two rounds especially. What does that mean for McCaffrey?

It should mean that his value is just as high as usual. But it also means that when you arrive at your fantasy drafts, CMC may be undervalued in favor of the receivers, and that's something to keep an eye out for. Don't be afraid of selecting the running back when there's a run on receivers early.

Injury concerns and potential holdouts are what's leading to the trend of receivers with the first few picks more than anything else. There's still value in the RB position, though, so much so that they still own much of the top 12 despite the favoring of receivers early on.

Here's a look at the top 12 in terms of points, projections, and more.

As you can see even just a season ago, half-PPR still favors the RB position, as McCaffrey outscored every non-QB outside of Ekeler and is projected to score the most of any player in 2023, according to numberFire.

Whether you play in half-PPR, full-PPR, or even standard, McCaffrey still carries the value of a 1.01 pick. If he makes it any further than that in your drafts and you have the chance to take him, consider yourself lucky.

Final Verdict: Worth 1.01

McCaffrey is the best RB on draft boards heading into 2023 fantasy drafts. There shouldn't be much doubt about that. It simply comes down to preference now at the 1.01 spot.

Justin Jefferson is the consensus top pick on any and every fantasy football website you'll use -- and for good reason.

But McCaffrey should challenge that in every way and will if the person picking in your league prefers RBs to WRs. The wide receiver depth is far deeper than running backs are. If you get a chance to get one of the best early, it may be wise to not pass that up.

numberFire has McCaffrey projected to be the RB1 in fantasy this year, expecting everything we've stated to go right with room to be even greater.

FantasyPros has McCaffrey with an ADP of 1.7, just behind Jefferson for that No. 1 spot. In FanDuel best ball leagues, McCaffrey is the first running back off the board (2.7 ADP), trailing only Jefferson and Travis Kelce.

As I've said multiple times, it'll come down to preference when selecting at the top of the draft and where McCaffrey ultimately goes. He's worth the No. 1 pick, and he's a great value if the WRs are favored over him.

It's an interesting year in fantasy with a lot of uncertainty. But what we do know is that as long as he's healthy, McCaffrey is going to be a top guy no matter what.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.