Should Amon-Ra St. Brown Be Taken in the First Round in Fantasy Football?

After finishing with the third-most half-PPR points among wide receivers in 2023, Amon-Ra St. Brown enters this season as a bonafide WR1.

St. Brown is tied to one of the top offenses in football and is entering his prime at 24 years old. However, ARSB hasn't garnered the same hype of other top-end wideouts.

Although Amon-Ra has solidified himself as a rock-solid WR1, the question remains: does Amon-Ra St. Brown have the ceiling to be the WR1, and is he worth a first-round pick in fantasy?

Amon-Ra St. Brown Fantasy Football Outlook

St. Brown's 2023 Season

The public wasn't all the way bought into Amon-Ra St. Brown entering last season.

Though he finished as the WR8 in 2022, he caught only six touchdowns and was outside the top-24 wide receivers each of the final five weeks.

Consequently, St. Brown's consensus average draft position (ADP) on FantasyPros sat at 18.0 ahead of the 2023 season.

That proved to be a mistake.

Amon-Ra took another step forward in his third season, finishing with 119 receptions (tied for second in the NFL), 1,515 yards (third) and 10 touchdowns (tied for fourth).

He ended the year as the WR4 by points per game (17) and the WR3 overall (271.4).

While St. Brown caught 13 more passes and recorded 354 more yards in 2023 than he did in 2022, the biggest difference in his fantasy profile was touchdowns.

Amon-Ra scored 11 times combined in his first two seasons before crossing the goal line 10 times in 2023. That coincided with him lining up out wide more and garnering a career-high 23 red zone targets.

St. Brown's transition into a more balanced receiver isn't a complete shock, but it's something we need to monitor leading into 2024.

The 6-foot, 202-pound pass catcher should continue to be a PPR machine going forward, but his ability to maintain (or build on) last year's transformation is the key to his upside.

Amon-Ra's Ceiling

St. Brown's floor shouldn't be questioned entering 2024. He's been a top-12 wide receiver each of the past two seasons and has provided a level of consistency matched by few other wideouts.

Consider this -- dating back to Week 13 of his rookie season, Amon-Ra has cracked double-digit half-PPR points in 32 of 38 games. Over that span, he's finished with six-plus receptions 31 times.

That consistency was on full display last season as St. Brown finished with either 100 receiving yards or a touchdown in all but two games.

Fueled by an uptick in touchdowns, he solidified his status among the position's elite by finishing as a top-12 receiver in 10 of 16 games.

Touchdowns are, of course, one of the biggest separators between good and great fantasy players. But even if St. Brown would've mirrored his six-touchdown season from 2022, he still would've been the WR3 overall and a top-10 non-quarterback.

That sets him up nicely to repeat as a high-end WR1 even if he scores less often in 2024, though we shouldn't automatically assume Amon-Ra won't crack double-digit TDs again. Only 5 of his 23 red zone targets went for touchdowns -- compared to 8 of 15 for teammate Sam LaPorta.

Is St. Brown Worth a First-Round Pick?

So, we've established that Amon-Ra St. Brown has one of the safest floors in fantasy football, and he flashed a sky-high ceiling in 2023.

But is he worth a first-round pick in fantasy drafts?

Provided Jared Goff doesn't turn into a complete pumpkin, ARSB is absolutely viable among the first 12 selections.

While it's hard to argue that St. Brown has a better chance to finish as top-12 option than those wideouts around him in ADP, he certainly doesn't have a worse chance those those WRs.

Of the current top-12 picks by ADP, St. Brown finished with the fourth-most fantasy points in 2023. He won't turn 25 years old until halfway through the season and has improved each of his first three years.

St. Brown has played at least 16 games each of his first three seasons, and the Lions have finished in the top five in scoring two years running.

Throw in that ARSB has the fourth-shortest odds to record the most regular season receiving yards on FanDuel Sportsbook, and you have all the ingredients for a first-round fantasy wide receiver.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Fantasy Football Projection

numberFire's NFL projections peg St. Brown for 116 receptions, 1,498 receiving yards, and 8.7 receiving touchdowns across a 17-game season.

That comes out to 261.9 fantasy points, fourth among receivers and seventh among non-quarterbacks.

Those projections line up with Amon-Ra's WR5 ADP. He's even more coveted in FanDuel's best-ball drafts, rising to WR3 in that format.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.