Seahawks at Bears Single-Game NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football

The busy week of NFL action continues tonight with a TNF clash between the Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is a 3.5-point road favorite, and the total is 42.5 points.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Seahawks at Bears NFL DFS Picks

MVP Candidates

Per usual, both quarterbacks are strong MVP picks.

Quietly, Caleb Williams ($14,000) has been putting up some big fantasy days, scoring at least 25.0 FanDuel points in three of his past five games. While it's not usually very pretty, the rookie is finding a way to get it done in DFS. His legs boost his floor and ceiling as he's run for at least 27 yards in five of his last six games. Seattle isn't an easy matchup, but it's not a really tough one, either, with the Seahawks giving up the 14th-most FanDuel points per game to QBs (17.1). I give Williams an edge over Geno Smith ($14,500).

Speaking of Geno, he's a solid MVP play, as well. Our NFL DFS projections have him slightly in front of Caleb (17.1 to 15.8). He's coming off a 26.36-point outburst last week, but prior to that, he'd put up five consecutive outputs of fewer than 17.0 FanDuel points. The reason I have Smith behind Williams is the matchup. Chicago allows the third-fewest FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks (14.7).

My favorite MVP play of the night is Zach Charbonnet ($11,000). Kenneth Walker III is out, which means we'll see a lot of Charbonnet. Walker sat in Weeks 13 and 14. In those games, Charbonnet played exactly 80% of the snaps in each, going for 37.8 and 13.1 FanDuel points. He racked up 11 targets across the two games and will be busy tonight. The NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook have his rushing plus receiving yards prop set at 96.5 yards, and he holds -160 touchdown odds.

Flex Targets

On the Seattle side, Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($15,000) has been excellent of late, but that's resulted in him having the slate's highest salary. I prefer to roster D.K. Metcalf ($13,000). Metcalf has logged snap rates of 89% and 93% over the last two weeks, and we know he can hit for a big play. His receiving yards prop is a solid 59.5 yards.

Of course, if you prefer JSN, go for it. The second-year wideout is breaking out, amassing 12 targets in each of his last two games. He's paced Seattle's WRs in snaps in four straight weeks. His receiving yards prop is up at 72.5 yards.

D'Andre Swift ($10,000) has played at least 69% of the snaps in four consecutive games, benefitting from Roschon Johnson ($7,500) playing just one fully healthy game in that span. Johnson played 27% of the snaps last week in his return from injury, so he's still a factor. But Swift looks like the clear RB1 in Chicago's backfield. His rushing plus receiving yards prop is 75.5 yards, although his TD odds are just +180.

Keenan Allen ($12,000) has been Williams' favorite target lately, nosing in front of D.J. Moore ($10,500) and Rome Odunze ($9,500). Allen has 13 targets in both of the Bears' last two games, and he's played at least 92% of the snaps in eight of the past nine games. With that said, Allen's yardage prop (59.5) is barely in front of Moore's (55.5). I side with Moore between the two of them. Odunze is more of a dart throw, and his yardage prop is 43.5 yards.

None of the tight ends in this game are all that appealing. If I had to use one, it would be Noah Fant ($7,500). He makes some sense as a value play. However, his yardage prop is just 30.5 yards, and his +420 touchdown odds are an eyesore.

You can make a decent case for either defense. Our model projects Seattle's D/ST ($9,000) for 8.1 points and Chicago's D/ST ($8,500) for 6.9. Williams has taken multiple sacks in all but one game this season, although he hasn't thrown a pick in nine straight games.

If you think this game is a low-scoring one -- the over/under is 42.5 -- the kickers are worth a look. Jason Myers ($9,000) comes in at a projection of 9.0 FanDuel points while we have Cairo Santos ($8,500) projected for 8.3.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.