Rangers vs. Orioles American League Division Series Preview

The American League Division Series kicks off on Saturday when the Texas Rangers (90-72) take on the Baltimore Orioles (101-61) in the first of a best-of-five to decide one of the two squads that will play for a chance at the World Series.

Baltimore finished with the best record in the American League en route to earning the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye.

Texas, meanwhile, comes in fresh off a 2-0 sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays in the Wild Card Series. The Rangers entered the postseason as the No. 5 seed in the AL after losing the AL West on the final day of the regular season.

Contrary to the best-of-three Wild Card round where all games are played in the higher-seeded team's city, the Divisional Series allows both teams the opportunity to play in front of their home fans. The ALDS follows a 2-2-1 format with the higher-seeded squad home for the first two games.

For Game 1, first pitch from Camden Yards is slated for Saturday at 1:00 p.m. EST. The visiting Rangers come into Game 1 as +116 underdogs while the home Orioles are a moderate favorite at -136 to win the opener.

All MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Updated October 5th, 2023 at 12:00 p.m. EST

Rangers vs. Orioles AL Division Series Odds: Moneyline, Total Games, and Correct Score

• Series Moneyline:
  • Orioles: -110
  • Rangers: -110
• Total Games:
  • 3 (+270)
  • 4 (+168)
  • 5 (+146)
• Correct Score:
  • Orioles 3-0 (520)
  • Orioles 3-1 (+440)
  • Orioles 3-2 (+330)
  • Rangers 3-0 (+710)
  • Rangers 3-1 (+370)
  • Rangers 3-2 (+410)

Rangers vs. Orioles Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

• Rangers (90-72/2nd AL West):
  • nERD: 0.86 (8th)
  • Run differential: +165 (4th)
  • Home record: 50-31 (4th)
  • Away record: 42-41 (11th)
  • OPS: .790 (3rd)
  • HR/game: 1.44 (4th)
  • wOBA: .340 (3rd)
  • ERA: 4.28 (18th)
  • K%: 22.4% (21st)
  • BB%: 8.1% (T-10th)
• Orioles (101-61/1st AL East):
  • nERD: 0.61 (12th)
  • Run differential: +129 (T-5th)
  • Home record: 49-32 (6th)
  • Away record: 52-29 (T-2nd)
  • OPS: .742 (14th)
  • HR/game: 1.13 (17th)
  • wOBA: .320 (T-14th)
  • ERA: 3.91 (7th)
  • K%: 23.5% (12th)
  • BB%: 7.8% (T-7th)

Rangers vs. Orioles AL Division Series Analysis

While the two squads are priced evenly to win this series, Baltimore has slightly shorter odds to win the World Series (+700) compared to Texas (+950). The teams split the regular season series 3-3 when they each took two of three on the road. However, all six games took place before June, so there likely isn't much to take away from it.

This is an intriguing matchup on paper. Texas appears to have a more explosive offense, but Baltimore clearly boasts a better bullpen. Comparing their starters is essentially a wash, so it makes sense that the teams share -110 odds to advance.

Starting Pitchers

Texas' pitching staff is probably the biggest X-factor in the series.

Their starting rotation has seen a ton of turnover throughout the year. They lost Jacob deGrom (elbow) early but managed to stay afloat in the first half thanks to a career year from Nathan Eovaldi (3.63 ERA). Adding Jordan Montgomery (2.79 ERA) at the deadline was one of the savvier moves of the season, but both he and Eovaldi will likely be unavailable until Games 3 and 4 after they combined for 12.2 innings of one-run ball in the Wild Card round.

Until those two are ready, expect Dane Dunning and Andrew Heaney to eat as many innings as they can. Dunning (3.70 ERA) enjoyed a quiet breakout during the regular season and managed 4.0 shutout innings in his lone meeting with Baltimore during the regular season. Heaney (4.08) bounced in and out of the starting rotation and proved to be a quality bullpen piece down the stretch, but he did surrender 7 runs in 2.2 innings against Baltimore early in the season.

Baltimore may not have a true No. 1 starter on paper, but don't tell that to Kyle Bradish. Bradish was spectacular during the regular season, finishing with a 2.83 ERA and a 25.0% strikeout rate across 30 starts. He's expected to start Game 1 with Kyle Gibson (4.73 ERA), Grayson Rodriguez (25.0% K rate), and Dean Kremer (4.12 ERA) rounding out their shortened rotation.

Batting Breakdown

The Rangers' strength lies in their bats.

Texas boasts a number of quality hitters, led first and foremost by their star middle infield of Corey Seager (1.013 OPS) and Marcus Semien (.354 wOBA). Seager led the way with four hits in the Wild Card, but third-baseman Josh Jung (.334 wOBA) and outfielders Leody Taveras (.316 wOBA) and Evan Carter (.435) were right behind him with three a piece. Carter, baseball's eight-best prospect per MLB Pipeline, joined Adolis Garcia (.263 ISO, 39 home runs) as the only two Rangers to homer in the first round.

Jonah Heim (.324 wOBA), Nathaniel Lowe (.340 wOBA), and Robbie Grossman (.323 wOBA) fill out the remainder of a Texas lineup that thrives in both splits. During the regular season, the Rangers ranked fourth in wOBA (.341) against lefties and third (.339) against righties.

Baltimore was better against lefties (10th-ranked, .330 wOBA) compared to righties (17th-ranked, .316 wOBA) -- something to keep in mind against Montgomery, Chapman, Smith, and Heaney.

The Orioles don't have any MVP candidates (yet) at the plate, but they have a ton of young talent ready to break onto the national stage. Chief among those are 2022 Rookie of the Year runner-up Adley Rutschman (.352 wOBA) and current Rookie of the Year favorite Gunnar Henderson (.234 ISO). Anthony Santander (28 home runs), Ryan O'Hearn (.191 ISO), and Ryan Mountcastle (.182 ISO) aid Henderson in the power department, serving as Baltimore's 3-5 hitters.

The bottom of their lineup is chock-full of quality hitters. First-time All-Star Austin Hays (.330 wOBA) leads the way with Ramon Urias (.328 OBP), Cedric Mullins (74 RBI), and Adam Frazier (.300 OBP) rounding things out.

Bullpen Watch

Baltimore's bullpen is easily their biggest strength.

Even though the Orioles lost Felix Bautista (elbow), their bullpen still ranked fifth in ERA (3.55) and seventh in strikeout rate (25.2%) during the regular season. Yennier Cano (2.11 ERA) has seamlessly transitioned into the closing role after leading the league with 31 holds.

Jack Flaherty (25.3%) and John Means (2.83 ERA) were starters in the regular season, but they'll likely pitch in long relief. On top of that, Baltimore has a trio of solid lefties to call upon when needed -- Cionel Perez (3.54 ERA), Daniel Coulombe (2.81 ERA), and DL Hall (3.26 ERA).

Texas' bullpen is somewhat concerning after they blew the most saves (33) in the regular season and finished 24th in ERA (4.77). That said, they managed 4.1 scoreless innings against the Rays last round and do have a few notable names. Aroldis Chapman has a ton of playoff experience and maintained a 39.4% strikeout rate since arriving in Texas midway through the year. Chapman only pitched 1.0 inning during the Wild Card round, so expect to see him in Game 1.

Keep an eye on Will Smith, as well. Smith led the team with 22 saves during the regular season but lost his grip on the role toward the end of the season. He did not pitch in the Wild Card round but will likely hear his name called after Jose Leclerc closed both wins over Tampa Bay. Leclerc has been a solid arm over the past few years and posted a 2.68 ERA and 28.8% strikeout rate during the regular season.

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