How Will Josh Jacobs' Holdout Affect Fantasy Football and Vegas' Betting Odds?

The Las Vegas Raiders and running back Josh Jacobs were unable to agree to terms on a long-term contract prior to Monday’s July 17th deadline. The team applied the franchise tag to their star back in March, but Jacobs did not sign the contract. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Jacobs is now expected to hold out throughout the duration of the Raiders’ training camp, which is set to begin on July 25th.

Per Schefter, Jacobs “cannot be fined for not attending training camp,” and would only “lose money” by sitting out into the regular season and forfeiting game checks. Since he is not technically under contract with the team, the team is unable to subject him to fines.

While it is expected that Jacobs will not participate in the Raiders’ training camp practices this summer, it is still unclear whether or not the former first-round pick will return to the team for the first week of the season. Jacobs had an outstanding 2022 season, leading the league in touches (393) and yards from scrimmage (2,053) while notching 12 total touchdowns, but it could be worth noting that he entered last season in an already-tenuous relationship with the Raiders’ franchise.

Following the 2021 campaign, the Raiders did not pick up the former first-round pick’s fifth-year option, putting Jacobs on track to become a free agent this offseason. The team parted ways with the general manager (Mike Mayock) and coach (Jon Gruden) who drafted him so highly back in 2019, and 2022 head coach Josh McDaniels appeared set to utilize a running-back-by-committee approach in his first year as the team’s play-caller. Jacobs’ role was further put into question by his head-scratching usage during the 2022 preseason, which did cause some speculation that Jacobs could be on the trading block.

No trade materialized, and Jacobs’ outstanding play made it hard for the Raiders to even take him off the field in 2022 as they struggled to a six-win season. Now with former quarterback Derek Carr starting for the New Orleans Saints and an injury-prone Jimmy Garoppolo expected to become the Raiders’ starter, the team would have been set to rely on Jacobs more heavily than ever for offensive production in 2023.

Betting Impact of Josh Jacobs' Holdout

The quarterback change in the offseason for Las Vegas has left them as distant threats to win their division or make a run at the Lombardi Trophy as is. Jacobs' absence could be a massive blow to an otherwise dubious offense for the upcoming season.

To this point, the Raiders’ betting markets have yet to shift, but their odds will be worth monitoring in the coming weeks as Jacobs’ holdout continues.

Here is Vegas' current outlook in certain NFL betting odds markets at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Fantasy Fallout of Josh Jacobs' Holdout

Assuming a full year, Jacobs would enter the season as numberFire’s RB4 for fantasy football in 2023 and is projected for 250.3 fantasy points over a full 17 games. His projections include 312 carries for 1,390 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns (the most in the league) as well as 40 receptions for 252 yards and 1.5 more touchdowns through the air.

Jacobs didn’t leave much room for any other backs to produce in 2022. Teammates Brandon Bolden and Zamir White, who were the team’s second and third backs, combined for just 34 carries over the entire year. If the star back’s holdout does continue into the regular season, Bolden and White (as well as teammate Ameer Abdullah) would be expected to shoulder most of the load in Jacobs’ absence.

Bolden has played under head coach Josh McDaniels for most of his long career but was not a strong member of the Raiders’ offense last season behind Jacobs. He is still under contract for the upcoming season, though, and could see more work in 2023 due to having McDaniels’ trust. Bolden does have plus size at the position and ability to play on passing downs and could be worth monitoring in PPR-style fantasy leagues.

White will be a second-year player entering the 2023 campaign after joining the team as a fourth-round draft pick in 2022. The Georgia alum didn’t see much work as a rookie but could take up the mantle as the team’s lead back Jacobs continues his holdout into the regular season. The former top prospect weighed in at 215 lbs at the NFL Combine and blazed a 4.40-second 40-yard dash at the event after, averaging over five yards per carry in each of his collegiate seasons. White could be the favorite for goal-line opportunities behind Jacobs with a strong training camp this offseason.

The Raiders did retain the services of Ameer Abdullah for the 2023 season after the journeyman back had a nice season as the team’s primary pass-catching back. He caught 25 passes for 211 yards and a score last season, but he has primarily buttered his bread as a return-game specialist over the past few years.

The Raiders do not seem like major candidates to bring in a veteran replacement back in free agency if Jacobs does hold out into the regular season. The team has the third-lowest estimated cap space remaining, according to OverTheCap.com, and is considered to be serious underdogs to win their own division at +1400 odds --the worst by far in the AFC West). Former workhorses like Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, and Kareem Hunt don’t seem like realistic options for Las Vegas, but the team could look into cheaper free agent veterans like Rex Burkhead (who has played with McDaniels in several seasons), Mark Ingram, and Giovani Bernard to help bolster their depth chart.

We will need to monitor Jacobs’ situation throughout the offseason to know whether or not he does intend to return to the team for the regular season. If he does return, he should be expected to reprise his role as one of the most electric talents in the league at the position. He’ll leave pretty massive shoes to fill if he does maintain his holdout into the regular season, and the Raiders’ likeliness to lean into a committee approach at the position behind him could make players like Zamir White, Brandon Bolden, and Ameer Abdullah unreliable and unappetizing options for fantasy football.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.