Premier League Predictions Today: EPL Picks, Best Bets for Matchweek 6 (Saturday)

Saturday’s Best EPL Betting Picks in Summary

• Sunderland Moneyline (+200)
• Chelsea-Bournemouth Both Teams to Score (-195)
• Aston Villa Moneyline (+165)

The English Premier League returns from the international break on Saturday, October 10, with six matches on the schedule.

Saturday's slate features several intriguing matchups, including Sunderland hosting Brighton, Chelsea taking on Bournemouth, and Manchester United welcoming Tottenham to Old Trafford.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets stand out for today?

All soccer odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

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Today’s Best EPL Predictions: Premier League Picks

Sunderland Moneyline (+200)

Brighton at Sunderland (10 a.m. ET)

Sunderland have gotten off to a disappointing start in the standings, but their underlying numbers suggest they've been a little unlucky.

Through five Premier League matches, Sunderland have generated 9.49 expected goals (xG) while scoring just six times. That discrepancy suggests the Black Cats have created considerably more scoring opportunities than their goal total indicates.

Their most recent match was a particularly encouraging offensive performance despite the result. Sunderland scored three goals against Manchester City and generated 3.57 xG, actually exceeding City's 2.82 xG in a 5-3 defeat.

That kind of attacking production provides some optimism heading into Saturday's home matchup with Brighton.

The Seagulls have been excellent offensively, scoring 16 goals through five league matches. However, Sunderland's underlying attacking numbers suggest they have the ability to create chances against even strong opponents.

An xG-based projection from xgEdge gives Sunderland a 39% chance of winning, compared to 33% for Brighton and 28% for a draw. Those probabilities suggest the Black Cats could offer value as home underdogs, particularly at +200 moneyline odds.

Sunderland's defensive injuries are a legitimate concern, especially with Dan Ballard unavailable. Nevertheless, the combination of home-field advantage, positive attacking regression, and an attractive underdog price makes Sunderland worth considering. Also, travel could be a factor as this is a long trip up north for Brighton.

Chelsea-Bournemouth Both Teams to Score (-195)

Bournemouth at Chelsea (10 a.m. ET)

Chelsea and Bournemouth have both struggled defensively to begin the Premier League campaign, creating an appealing opportunity to target goals at both ends.

Through five league matches, Chelsea have scored 10 goals but conceded 12. That's an average of 2.4 goals allowed per contest, and the Blues have yet to record a clean sheet. Their offensive production has been encouraging, but defensive mistakes have repeatedly prevented them from translating goals into victories.

Bournemouth have experienced similar defensive issues.

The Cherries have conceded in all five Premier League matches this season while finding the net in four of those contests. In fact, both teams have scored in four of Bournemouth's first five league matches.

That combination makes today’s matchup particularly appealing for the both-teams-to-score market.

Chelsea should have opportunities to exploit Bournemouth's defensive vulnerabilities at Stamford Bridge, but their own defensive struggles make it difficult to trust them to keep a clean sheet.

Aston Villa Moneyline (+165)

Brentford at Aston Villa (10 a.m. ET)

Aston Villa enter Saturday's home matchup with Brentford looking to build on their 3-2 victory at Tottenham before the international break.

While Brentford have enjoyed an impressive start to the campaign, Villa's attacking upside and home-field advantage make them an intriguing moneyline option.

An expected-goals model from xg.football projects Villa to generate 1.64 xG against Brentford's 1.33. That same model gives Villa a 44.7% chance of winning, compared to 31.1% for Brentford and 24.2% for a draw. Villa’s +165 ML comes out to implied odds of 37.7%.

Brentford's underlying defensive numbers also provide some encouragement for Villa. Across the model's recent away-match sample, the Bees have conceded an average of 2.08 xG per match. That suggests Villa should have opportunities to create quality scoring chances, particularly if they can establish control of possession at Villa Park.

The Bees’ strong early-season form makes this a competitive matchup, but Villa's projected attacking advantage and home environment are enough for me to lean toward the hosts.

Soccer Betting FAQ

What is a moneyline bet in soccer?

A moneyline bet is a wager on which team will win the match. Because soccer matches can end in a draw, most moneyline markets include three options: the home team, the away team, or a draw.

What does “draw no bet” mean?

Draw no bet removes the draw as a losing outcome. If the match ends tied, your wager is refunded. If your team wins, the bet wins.

What is a soccer total?

A total is a bet on how many combined goals will be scored in a match. For example, an Over 2.5 Goals bet wins if at least three goals are scored.

What does “both teams to score” mean?

Both Teams to Score, often abbreviated BTTS, is a wager on whether each team will score at least one goal during the match.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.