Premier League Betting Picks for Matchweek 21: Can Chelsea Dominate in a London Derby?

There are a few teams on a break for this week, but there's also some big games to sink our teeth into.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Betting

Aston Villa at Everton (9:00 AM ET Sunday)

Aston Villa Moneyline (+140)

We'll start things off with Aston Villa's trip to Everton on Sunday. There has been a ton of talk about Villa's home form, but they should still be able to get things done on the road this week.

Currently, Villa are in second place in the EPL, exceeding all expectations. They rank only fifth in expected goal (xG) differential, per FBRef's model. They had a slight blip in their form recently with a draw and a loss before getting things back on track with a 3-2 win over Burnley in which they won the xG battle 3.2-1.2.

Everton have lost three matches in a row in the league and are currently in 17th place. They are this low mostly because of the 10-point deduction they received due to a financial fair play charge.

The Toffees' underlying numbers are better than the other teams near the relegation zone. Their xG differential is better than that of top-10 teams like Tottenham, Manchester United and West Ham. Where Everton's form is relegation-like is at home, where they've averaged just one point per match across 10 home games.

Aston Villa are definitely better at home but are capable of winning away against a team they are better than. Getting +!40 odds on the second-placed team against the 17th-placed team is pretty wild. With the context of Everton's point deduction, it does make some sense, but I still think Villa are good enough to win at Goodison on Sunday.

Fulham at Chelsea (7:30 AM ET Saturday)

Chelsea -1.5 (+176)

We have a West London derby early on Saturday, and it should be an interesting match.

Chelsea have been perhaps the most unlucky team in the league. Their xG differential is the fourth-best in the EPL (+10.6), but they're struggling for results -- mostly due to poor finishing. The Blues have scored just 33 goals on 39.4 xG.

They are surely hoping that adding Christopher Nkunku to the lineup will help their finishing woes. Nkunku has started just one match and scored a goal. He netting 36 goals on 30.5 xG in the Bundesliga over the past two seasons, so he should be able to add some sharpness to Chelsea's attack.

You could argue that Fulham have been one of the luckier teams in terms of their underlying data. They have the fourth-worst xG differential in the league but are in 13th overall and not really close to the relegation zone.

Fulham's form has been all over the place. They won 5-0 twice at the beginning of December and then went three straight league games without scoring before beating Arsenal in their last EPL match.

They are coming into this one off the back of losing 2-1 to Liverpool on Wednesday in the Carabao Cup, and Fulham now have a derby just three days later. Fulham aren't the deepest team, so having two matches in a week is a notable disadvantage for them. The Blues played their Carabao Cup semifinal on Tuesday, and in addition to having an extra day of rest, Chelsea have a deeper squad, one that should be able to handle fixture congestion.

Chelsea were able to win the reverse fixture 2-0 on the road. They should have what it takes to win by more than a goal Saturday at Stamford Bridge, and we're getting a great number of +176 on that happening.

Player Props

Cole Palmer to Score (+210): We get nice odds on Chelsea's leading scorer, Cole Palmer, to score at any time. Palmer has eight goals in 16 league matches (12 starts). He also has taken four penalties for Chelsea. If we expect Chelsea to be able to score in this match, Palmer has a great chance to be one of the players to find the back of the net.

Bruno Guimaraes to be Booked (+200): Bruno Guimaraes is a typical midfield hard man who hasn't been too disciplined of late. He has picked up a yellow card in five straight matches in all competitions. He might give into frustration in this weekend's match against Manchester City, especially if Newcastle are working hard to get possession. Bruno was booked in their earlier meeting of the season. With the way yellow cards have been handed out under the new standards this season, it's easy to see him picking another booking in this game.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.