Premier League Betting Picks for Manchester City at Brentford (2/5/24)

One of the highest scoring matchweeks in EPL history -- 41 goals from nine matches so far -- will reach its conclusion this afternoon.

Today, we will be looking at the final portion of Matchweek 23. Monday's slate features one match: Manchester City at Brentford.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this game?

EPL Betting

Manchester City at Brentford (3 p.m. ET Monday)

Over 3.5 Goals (+124)

The visitors, Manchester City, enter this contest undefeated in their last nine matches across all competitions, with just one loss in their last 13 EPL matches. Their blip in late November/early December is fully behind them, and City enter this one averaging 2.18 expected goals (xG) per match – according to FBRef – over their last five fixtures. After Liverpool’s loss on Sunday, City can go top of the league if they win each of their two games in hand.

Each of Brentford’s last three matches across all competitions finished with a 3-2 score, with two losses to Tottenham and Chelsea and a win over Nottingham Forest. They sit in 15th on the league table despite underlying metrics that indicate that they belong higher. Their xGD/90 (+0.29) ranks sixth.

The Bees have underperformed in both phases of the game, scoring 31 goals from 35.4 xG and allowing 36 goals from 29.4 xG. Their -6.2 differential between non-penalty goals and non-penalty xG is third-worst in the league. The return of Ivan Toney has helped them address that. In the two matches since Toney’s return, Brentford has scored five goals from 2.8 xG -- the first time they’ve overperformed their xG metrics in consecutive games all season.

Toney’s return has not helped them address their defensive vulnerabilities. The Bees’ last EPL clean sheet was in October. Since then, they have allowed a goal in 11 consecutive fixtures. Over their last five matches, they have conceded 2.8 goals per match from 1.78 xG per match. There have been more than 3.5 goals scored in each of their last four EPL fixtures and five of their last six fixtures across all competitions.

Playing at home hasn’t helped Brentford. They have just one clean sheet from 11 home fixtures in the EPL and have allowed the third-most home goals this season (20).

All of this is surely music to the ears of the defending champions, who are expected to have Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne together in the starting 11 for the first time since Matchweek 1. Even with both their stars missing considerable time this season, City has been the most clinical side in the EPL. Their +8.2 differential between their non-penalty goals and non-penalty xG ranks first and is nearly double the team in third, Aston Villa (+4.3).

City has scored at least two goals in six consecutive matches, with three goals in three of their last four. As much as playing at home hasn’t helped Brentford, playing on the road hasn’t hurt City this season -- actually, they have been a better side away from home. Their away +1.21 xGD/90 ranks first by a wide margin over the Gunners in second (+0.69). On the road, they rank first in xG/90 (2.2) and goals/90 (2.18).

The one area where City has not fully bounced back since their mid-season blip is on defense. In their 11 EPL fixtures since the start of November, they have kept just one clean sheet -- a 2-0 win over Sheffield United. Their xG metrics have been solid, especially against lesser competition, they have just underperformed them.

City’s road form, the presence of Ivan Toney and Brentford’s season-long struggles on defense have me looking at the over on 3.5 goals in this one.

Player Prop

Kevin De Bruyne Anytime Assist (-125): De Bruyne hasn’t missed a beat since making his return from a hamstring injury that sidelined him since Matchweek 1. He has an assist in each of his two games since his return. In 92 total minutes played since coming back, De Bruyne has a goal, two assists, and four chances created. With Haaland back and Julian Alvarez in fantastic form, KDB has two excellent options to target in the final third.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.