Premier League Betting Guide Matchweek 4: Will Arsenal Top Manchester United?

Matchweek 4 -- which starts on Friday -- is the last action before the first international break of the campaign, so savor the 10 matches on offer.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Best Bets: Matchweek 4

Everton at Sheffield United (7:30 a.m. ET Saturday)

Everton Moneyline (+150)

Things aren't going well for Everton, a side that has dropped three straight matches to start the year and has netted a grand total of zero goals.

I'll admit: it's terrifying to back them, and it's 100% fair to worry about their mental state right now given that this miserable start comes on the heels of two straight campaigns where the Toffees have had to scratch and claw to fight off relegation.

But there are reasons to back Everton at Sheffield United on Saturday morning, and oddsmakers agree as the Toffees are listed as slim favorites.

The biggest reason to be bullish about Everton in this one is that Sheffield United have been an even worse side thus far. The Blades are also winless through three matches and carry an expected goal (xG) differential of -5.1, per FBRef, which is the second-worst clip in the league. They've been bad both in attack and in defense, tallying 0.5, 0.5 and 0.7 xG through three outings while giving up at least 1.5 xG in every game.

The other reason to feel somewhat good about backing the Toffees is that they haven't been as bad as their results indicate.

Everton's xG difference is only -0.8 and is 4.3 goals better than the Blades' mark. Sure, Sheffield United's xG numbers are skewed by having to play Manchester City, but their aggregate xG tally in their other two matches -- which came against Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest, two sides that are fairly comparable to Everton -- is 1.0 xG scored and 3.3 xG allowed.

I have a lot of concerns about Everton's mental state and their ability to fight back if they concede first in this game, but with that said, I think they're the better team in this matchup and aren't performing nearly as badly as their results say they are. I'm taking them to win at +150.

Manchester United at Arsenal (11:30 a.m. ET Sunday)

Arsenal Moneyline (-130)

In my eyes, this one is pretty simple: Arsenal are the better side, and once you add in the homefield advantage -- which is a huge factor given Manchester United's away woes last year -- I think Arsenal's -130 moneyline is an appealing bet.

Through three matchweeks, the Gunners have been better than Manchester United. Arsenal's xG differential sits at +3.3 while United's is at +1.9. Last season, the Gunners recorded an xG differential that was 12.6 goals better than United's, so this season is a continuation of what we've seen from these two sides since last August.

When Arsenal hosted Manchester United last season, it was a bloodbath -- at least by xG, with Arsenal winning the xG battle 3.1-0.4. That match at the Emirates wasn't the only time United struggled away from home against a top side. In fact, United struggled away from home against all the best teams in England.

In four matches versus the other four sides that joined United in the top five last year, United lost all four outings, and the aggregate scoreline was 18-5. The lone one-goal defeat of the bunch was the match at Arsenal, which finished 3-2 despite Arsenal dominating in xG.

Arsenal, meanwhile, had the third-best home xG differential in the league last year and played very well in their last home match -- which came last weekend -- amassing a 3.2-0.6 xG advantage against Fulham despite an actual scoreline of 2-2.

I think there are a lot of things pointing toward an Arsenal win on Sunday, and I like this -130 number.

Player Props

Phil Foden to Score or Assist (-155): With City currently short-handed in attack, this is Foden's chance to lock down a starting spot. He's been solid thus far, registering a pair of assists through two starts, and City can run rampant against Fulham on Saturday. City are -146 to go over 2.5 goals, and Foden has a good chance to get in on the fun with a goal or assist.

Nicolas Jackson to Score or Assist (-150): We hit on a Jackson anytime goal last week, and he's in another good spot, this time at home versus Nottingham Forest. Jackson has amassed 2.0 xG through three starts and should have chances to record a goal or assist on Saturday in a match in which Chelsea are -240 to go over 1.5 goals. I also don't mind Ben Chilwell to score/assist (+215).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.