Premier League Betting Guide Matchweek 3: Newcastle and Liverpool Set for a Showdown

We're already two weeks into the season, and there's no slowing down from here.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

Premier League Betting: Matchweek 3

Manchester City at Sheffield United (9 a.m. ET Sunday)

Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals (+100)

Manchester City have won two of two thus far but haven’t been at their best going forward, failing to tally 2.0 xG in either match. I think we see their high-octane attack shine on Sunday morning against Sheffield United.

The Blades, a side fresh off promotion, came into the year looking like a team doomed to go right back down to the Championship, and they’ve done nothing through two matches to make oddsmakers -- or me -- think otherwise as they are listed at -240 to be relegated and have lost the expected goals (xG) battle 1.9-0.5 against Crystal Palace and 1.4-0.5 versus Nottingham Forest, per FBRef's xG model.

Palace and Forest are likely to finish in the bottom half of the table, so if Sheffield United were overmatched in those fixtures, they’re in deep trouble versus City.

With City's moneyline at -600 and their first-half moneyline at -180, I think the best route to take to get exposure to City in this one is to back them to score over 2.5 goals at +100.

Liverpool at Newcastle (11:30 a.m. ET Sunday)

Newcastle Moneyline (+115)

The headline fixture of Matchweek 3 is the last match of the weekend, with Newcastle hosting Liverpool at 11:30 a.m. ET on Sunday. This should be a fun one.

There are a lot of numbers that point to Newcastle being the better side, and once you factor in the Magpies having home-field advantage, I like getting Newcastle at plus-money.

Going by xG, Newcastle were a good bit better than the Reds last season, with Newcastle’s xG differential at +32.4 and Liverpool’s at +21.7. On top of that, Newcastle was superb at home a year ago, posting the EPL’s second-best home xG differential (+27.7) and permitting just 14 goals in 19 matches.

Through two matches this campaign, Newcastle have continued to perform better than Liverpool have. So far, Newcastle have played at home versus Villa and at City. Against Villa, they amassed a whopping 3.3 xG and won 5-1, and at City, Newcastle put up a fight in a 1-0 loss, keeping the defending champs to just 1.0 xG. The last time City was held to 1.0 xG or lower in a home match came back in 2021-22 versus Chelsea.

Newcastle are one of the best teams in the Premier League, especially at home, and I think they’ll take all three points against a Liverpool side that is still a work in progress, particularly in midfield.

Player Props

Nicolas Jackson Anytime Goal (-105): Jackson has been lively through two matches and gets a delightful home date with Luton Town on Friday. Despite not yet opening his EPL goal-scoring account, Jackson has tallied 1.3 xG. If he keeps getting into dangerous positions, he'll score sooner rather than later, and a Luton Town side that shipped four goals at Brighton in its only match thus far is a perfect spot for Jackson to make the net bulge.

Son Heung-Min to Score or Assist (-115): Spurs have looked better than I expected sans Harry Kane, and they should be able to generate chances at Bournemouth on Saturday in a fixture that is -186 to go over 2.5 goals. According to FBRef, Son has made 11 progressive passes through two games, four of which were passes into the penalty area. He's also taken three shots and recorded nine shot-creating actions. All that to say: Son has been very active. He could thrive in what may be an open affair versus the Cherries.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.