Premier League Betting: Tottenham vs. Chelsea (5/2/24)

Nicholas Vazquez•@nickvaz

15d

We don't often get midweek Premier League games in the same week when we get midweek European games, but that's what we have this week. This match could have similar intensity to a big game in Europe.

This is a big London derby between Chelsea and Tottenham. Their meetings can be fiery encounters, and we saw that the last time they met in the Premier League. Tottenham got two men sent off, and Chelsea ended up winning, 4-1.

It's always a highly anticipated fixture when these teams link up. When looking at the English Premier League odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, how should we bet this game?

Tottenham vs. Chelsea Betting Picks

Best Bet: Tottenham Moneyline (+170)

This game is definitely more important to Tottenham than it is for Chelsea. Spurs can still qualify for the Champions League, as they are currently sitting seven points behind Aston Villa with two games in hand. If they want to make Europe's premier competition, they'll likely need to win all of their remaining matches.

Spurs had a tough derby defeat against Arsenal on Sunday. The underlying numbers say they were unlucky. According to FBRef, Spurs won the expected goals (xG) battle 2.3 to 1.0. This is impressive, considering Arsenal have the best xG differential in the Premier League. Tottenham have not been the strongest in xG this season, but they have been able to overcome it for the most part.

Chelsea are basically the opposite from Tottenham. They've had good xG numbers pretty much all year long but haven't turned that into good results. They have the EPL's fourth-best xG differential per 90 minutes but sit just ninth in the league table.

Tottenham are one of the best away teams in the Premier League. They've picked up the fifth-most points per match on the road this season.

Another factor to consider for Chelsea is their injuries. They will have 14 players unavailable, including seven defenders.

I think Tottenham are a better side than Chelsea, so I like getting +170 on them to win this match.

Player Prop: Son Heung Min to Score or Assist (-110)

That shaky Chelsea defensive group should have its hands full with Son Heung-Min in this match. Son has recorded a goal contribution in three of his last five matches, but his record on the season is much better.

In the Premier League this season, Son averages 0.90 goals + assists per 90 minutes. That's the best clip among Tottenham regulars and the eighth-highest mark in the league.

Some of the players he trails -- like Chelsea's Cole Palmer -- have benefited from scoring a handful of penalties this season (Palmer has nine). Son is Tottenham's penalty taker but has taken only two in the league this season.

I don't believe that there is something fundamentally different between Chelsea and Tottenham that leads to more penalties for the Blues. Spurs could be able to earn a spot kick against a Chelsea backline that is missing some of their first-choice players.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.