Premier League Betting: Best Bets and Player Props for Matchweek 17
The English Premier League is off and running for the 2024-25 campaign.
When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?
Premier League Betting Picks and Prop Bets for Matchweek 17
Brighton at West Ham (10 a.m. ET Saturday)
Brighton Over 1.5 Goals (-113)
After a stellar start to the season, Brighton have hit a skid. They've got enough in the attacking tank, though, to score multiple goals at West Ham this weekend.
Despite some meh results of late, the Seagulls are still creating chances. They've produced at least 1.0 expected goals (xG) -- per FBRef's xG model -- in all but one match this campaign. They've totaled at least two goals in five of their past nine fixtures.
West Ham are a friendly matchup. The Hammers have given up at least 1.4 xG in eight of their last nine outings, with the lone exception coming against an Everton team that doesn't offer much going forward. For the season, West Ham have allowed 28.7 xG, the fourth-most, through 16 matches.
Brighton's moneyline (+135) is appealing to me, but I'd rather take the Seagulls' defense out of it and back Brighton to score at least twice.
Arsenal at Crystal Palace (12:30 p.m. ET Saturday)
Under 2.5 Goals (-108)
These two teams just played Wednesday night in North London in the EFL Cup, and Arsenal won 3-2. I think we'll see a lower-scoring match on Saturday.
For one, Arsenal rotated their squad quite a bit for the cup match, not starting either of William Saliba or Gabriel Magalhães, their star center-backs. Both came on in the second half and -- for the most part -- kept Crystal Palace quiet, with Palace's second-half goal coming late when they were down 3-1 and were in all-out attack mode.
Arsenal had the league's best defense last year, and it's the same story this campaign, with the Gunners conceding just 14.2 xG, a league-best clip. Palace has netted only 17 EPL goals through 16 matches, and Arsenal should be able to keep them quiet.
The bigger concern for the under is whether Palace's defense can bottle up Arsenal. I think they can.
Despite Palace sitting in 15th in the table, their defense has been solid, especially at home -- where they've surrendered just 9.6 xG through eight matches. At home this year, they've blanked both Manchester United and Tottenham while also holding Newcastle to 0.0 xG.
On top of that, Arsenal's attack hasn't been that great away from the Emirates, with the Gunners amassing only 10.9 xG over eight away fixtures. Across all competitions, Arsenal have been held without a goal five times this season, and four of those instances have come on the road.
Chances should be hard to come by Saturday at Selhurst Park, and as long as Palace doesn't get bullied on set-pieces, I like this game to stay under 2.5 goals.
Wolves at Leicester (9 a.m. ET Sunday)
Facundo Buonanotte to Score or Assist (+175)
Wolves-Leicester is a massive game at the bottom of the table. While it's just Matchweek 17, this match will have big ramifications on the relegation battle.
Wolves are 19th in the table and are coming off a crushing home loss to Ipswich, another relegation candidate. That loss led to the sacking of manager Gary O'Neil, and Sunday will be Vitor Pereira's first match in charge for Wolves.
Leicester are 17th, one spot clear of the bottom three, and have -- more or less -- been what most people expected them to be, racking up 14 points through 16 matches. A win Saturday would push the Foxes eight points clear of Wolves.
Both of these sides are in the bottom six for most xG allowed, and we should see goals, with the match listed at -164 to go over 2.5 goals. That puts me on Buonanotte's goal-or-assist prop.
Buonanotte has been a key cog for Leicester. On the season, he's bagged four goals and two assists in 10 EPL starts. He paces the Foxes' regulars in shots per 90 minutes (2.16) and shots on target per 90 minutes (0.89). He is also second on the team in corners taken and handles some free kicks, giving him several paths to cashing in this market.
In what should be a higher-scoring match, Buonanotte to score or assist is my favorite prop of the weekend.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.