Premier League Betting: Best Bets and Player Props for Matchweek 11
The English Premier League is off and running for the 2024-25 campaign.
When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?
Premier League Betting Picks and Prop Bets for Matchweek 11
Fulham at Crystal Palace (10 a.m. ET Saturday)
Under 2.5 Goals (-122)
Both of these teams have been solid defensively this campaign, and I think we'll see a match Saturday without many clear chances.
Fulham have given up the fifth-fewest expected goals (xG), per FBRef's xG model, allowing only 11.2 xG through 10 league matches. Four of their five away matches have gone under 2.5 total goals, with the exception being a 3-2 loss at Manchester City.
While the results haven't been there for Crystal Palace, it hasn't been the defense's fault. Palace are solidly midtable defensively, giving up the 11th-fewest xG (14.3). They've been particularly stingy lately at home, holding Tottenham, Manchester United and Liverpool to a combined one goal across their last three EPL matches at Selhurst Park.
Going forward, Palace have generated the sixth-fewest xG (12.3) while Fulham has recorded just the ninth-most (15.1).
We have two solid defenses facing a pair of middling attacks. When you add in the recent home form of Palace's defense, it pushes me to the under.
Ipswich Town at Tottenham (9 a.m. ET Sunday)
Brennan Johnson to Score or Assist (-130)
Spurs have been pretty dang good this season -- much better than their seventh-place standing in the table indicates -- and they can cruise past Ipswich on Sunday.
Tottenham's attack has produced the second-most xG (19.8) in the league. They've sparkled at home, netting 15 goals over five home outings. They've scored at least three goals in four of those five home fixtures.
Ipswich isn't likely to slow that down as the promoted Tractor Boys have been tagged for a league-high 22.6 xG. Away from home, Ipswich has allowed 15.0 xG across five matches. They've played away against one big-six side and conceded four in that match, although it was against Manchester City. In their last two away fixtures, Ipswich has given up four goals at Brentford and four at West Ham.
Tottenham are -142 to go over 2.5 goals, and I find Brennan Johnson's -130 score-or-assist odds appealing.
Johnson has four goals and no assists through nine league starts. He's been credited with 17 shot-creating actions this season and has tallied 0.7 expected assists. He's also taken multiple shots in six of his last seven league starts.
Johnson and Dejan Kulusevski (-125) are both enticing in this market. Just make sure they start after Tottenham played in Turkey midweek.
Arsenal at Chelsea (11:30 a.m. ET Sunday)
Chelsea Moneyline (+180)
The matchweek concludes with a London showdown between Arsenal and Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.
Arsenal are expected to get Martin Odegaard back, which is a big boost to their attack, but it also looks like Declan Rice will miss this game. All in all, I think this is a pretty even match, so Chelsea at +180 moneyline odds is attractive to me.
The Blues (+4.6) and Gunners (+5.1) have nearly identical xG differentials. The match being at Chelsea is a big deal, though. Arsenal are just 13th in away xG differential (-2.4) while Chelsea are fourth in home xG differential (+6.3).
The Gunners' recent form is a big factor, too. After going unbeaten in their first 10 matches across all competitions, Arsenal have lost three of their past six matches. All three of those losses came away from home.
Give me Chelsea to take all three points on Sunday. If Arsenal were fully healthy, I'd feel differently, but they're not.
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