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Popular Home Run Prop Bets for Tuesday 7/18/23
Everyone loves the long ball, and today, a few certain players are getting a little extra love in the homer department.
Here are the players receiving the most home run prop bets today at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Along with the player and his odds to hit a home run, you can see his pitching matchup as well as fly-ball and hard-hit rates for the pitcher and hitters. For hitters, their stats against the pitcher's handedness are provided.
Note: Data as of 4:12 p.m. Eastern.
Hitter | Bats | Bets Made | Odds to Homer | Opposing Pitcher | Pitcher Hand | Pitcher Fly-Ball% | Pitcher Hard-Hit% | Hitter Fly-Ball% (vs. Pitcher Hand) | Hitter Hard-Hit% (vs. Pitcher Hand) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | L | 4626 | +340 | Julio Teheran | R | 43.3% | 32.6% | 25.7% | 38.9% |
| Matt Olson | L | 4005 | +310 | Zach Davies | R | 34.1% | 33.7% | 48.2% | 40.8% |
| Joey Votto | L | 3792 | +360 | Anthony Desclafani | R | 33.1% | 35.7% | 51.4% | 42.9% |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | R | 2358 | +350 | Zach Davies | R | 34.1% | 33.7% | 31.1% | 40.5% |
| Shohei Ohtani | L | 2054 | +255 | Domingo German | R | 39.9% | 30.9% | 40.9% | 40.9% |
Bryce Harper to Hit a Home Run (+340)
Bryce Harper has just 4 homers this season but owns an expected home run total (xHR) of 5.2 once adjusting for environmental variables and of 6.5 without those adjustments.
He faces Julio Teheran with a platoon split. Teheran has allowed a 43.3% fly-ball rate this season, 6.0 points higher than the MLB average. Also, his home-run-per-fly-ball rate (11.5%) is lower than the average (12.3%).
In a plus-hitting park for lefties, Harper makes sense as a popular target.
Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+310)
Matt Olson owns a platoon split against Zach Davies, a righty with a low 10.5% home-run-per-fly-ball rate on the back of a lower-than-average 34.1% fly-ball rate.
But Olson has smashed righties this year: a 48.2% fly-ball rate and a 40.8% hard-hit rate.
Joey Votto to Hit a Home Run (+360)
Another lefty-versus-righty matchup is getting attention. Joey Votto is looking for his eighth home run of the year in a matchup against Anthony DeSclafani in an elite hitting environment.
DeSclafani is allowing a 35.7% hard-hit rate and has allowed 12 dingers despite an adjusted xHR number of 13.4.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
