Pop-Tarts Bowl: Best Bets and Props for Iowa State vs. Miami

There are plenty of bowl games to watch across the college football landscape this weekend, and one of the matchups that stands out is the Pop-Tarts Bowl between the Iowa State Cyclones and Miami (FL) Hurricanes. The trophy for the Pop-Tarts Bowl is a functional toaster, so there's extra motivation for both teams to come away with a win.

During the regular season, the Cyclones tallied a 10-3 record, with their latest contest being a 45-19 defeat to the Arizona State Sun Devils in the Big 12 Championship game. As for the Hurricanes, they finished the regular season with a 10-2 record, having lost two of their final three games to fall short of earning a playoff spot.

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets should we target for Saturday's Iowa State-Miami showdown that kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET?

All college football odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Iowa State vs. Miami Betting Picks

Miami Over 30.5 Points (-112)

Even though he's expected to be one of the first players selected in the 2025 NFL Draft, Cam Ward is going to make his last start as a member of the Hurricanes in Saturday's contest. While he wasn't able to take home the Heisman Trophy, Ward notched the highest QBR (88.1) and most total expected points added (103.2) among qualified quarterbacks in college football this season.

As a result of Ward's spectacular performances from under center, Miami led the nation in scoring, averaging 43.1 points per game. Even with Iowa State deploying a defense that surrendered the 38th-fewest points per game (23.1), this team total seems a bit low for the Hurricanes.

Besides Miami producing 36-plus points in 11 of their 12 games this year, they are fifth in expected points added per rushing attempt (0.102) and expected points added per drop back (0.135) while ranking first in early down expected points added (0.294). The Hurricanes also excel at converting third and fourth downs, posting the best third and fourth down success rate (56.4%).

Considering that Iowa State allowed an average of 30.6 points in their previous seven games, I'll take the highest scoring offense in college football to achieve 31-plus points in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.

Miami -3.5 (-112)

Along with taking the Hurricanes to score 31-plus points, I'll also side with them to cover the spread against the Cyclones. If the matchup versus Arizona State in the Big 12 title game showed us anything, it's that you can generate explosive plays when facing the Cyclones' defense.

Against the pass, Iowa State allows the fifth-fewest yards per game (165.1), but they permit the 55th-most yards per completion (12.2). On the ground, the Cyclones surrender the 35th-most rushing yards per game (179.6) and 10th-most yards per attempt (5.2) after giving up 198 scrimmage yards and 3 touchdowns to Cameron Skattebo in the conference championship.

Despite Miami's dynamic offense being the primary reason why we're backing the Hurricanes to cover the spread, their defense deserves some credit, as well. Miami's defense is 15th in expected points added per rushing attempt allowed (-0.076), 19th in expected points added per drop back allowed (-0.074), and 15th in overall defensive success rate (36.6%).

Of the 10 wins the Hurricanes secured this season, 9 of them were by four-plus points.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.