PGA Best Bets: Sony Open in Hawaii

The PGA Tour is in Hawaii for the second straight week, this time at Waialae Country Club for the Sony Open.

Six golfers inside the top-25 of the OWGR are teeing it up, headlined by Hideki Matsuyama, who won The Sentry last week in record-breaking fashion.

Here's all you need to know.

All golf odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Sony Open in Hawaii Info
Waialae Country Club Course Info

Data from GCSAA, PGA Tour, and data golf's course table unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 70
• Distance: 7,044 yards (short)
• Average Fairway Width: 34.9 yards (average)
• Average Green Size: 7,100 square feet (large)
• Green Type: Bermudagrass
• Stimpmeter: N/A
• Recent Winning Scores: -17, -18, -23, -21, -11
• Recent Cut Lines: -2, -2, -5, -4, +1

Waialae Country Club Course Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Proximity From 125 to 200 yards
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Emphasis on Driving Accuracy
• Birdie or Better Rate

Waialae's short setup de-emphasizes driving distance historically, and a lot of shorter hitters tend to float to the top of the leaderboard.

This also leads to a higher-than-average distribution of approach shots from 125 to 200 yards, already the most common range of proximity we get on Tour -- just amped up.

Also notable is typically a tight final stretch. Of the last five events, three went to playoffs, and two were decided by just one shot.

PGA Sony Open in Hawaii Betting Picks

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.

Russell Henley

• Odds To Win Sony Open in Hawaii (+2000)

Russell Henley and accuracy courses go hand-in-hand, and he has played Waialae well in recent years.

His past finishes have been T4, T32, solo 2nd (a playoff loss), T11, and a missed cut, and he won here way back in 2013.

Over his last 50 rounds, Henley ranks 7th in the field in strokes gained: tee to green and 33rd in putting.

He's also accurate (second) and good from 100 to 200 yards (ninth over the last 12 months), where a lot of approaches come from this week.

Henley played last week at Kapalua and finished T30 -- but was 17th in approach and 4th in accuracy.

J.T. Poston

• Odds To Win Sony Open in Hawaii (+4000)

J.T. Poston is another short-but-accurate driver who plays well at Waialae.

Poston has three top-25s in seven starts at Waialae in his career, including a T21 and a solo 6th the last two years.

Poston won the Shriners Children's Open in October and -- after a month away -- returned to finish T5 at The RSM Classic.

He's got a solid game across the board and is top-55 in all four strokes gained stats. Only seven other golfers in the field can say that.

Sepp Straka

• Odds To Win Sony Open in Hawaii (+6000)

Sepp Straka has been striping his irons in the fall, gaining at least 1.05 strokes per round from approach play in four straight events since September.

Last week at The Sentry, Straka finished T15 while finishing 10th in approach and 4th in driving accuracy.

Over the last 50 rounds, Straka is also the 13th-best overall ball-striker in the field.

He's made three straight cuts at the Sony Open from 2020 to 2022 and has largely hit his irons well at Waialae with positive putting on these greens.

Si Woo Kim

• Top South Korean (+220)

There are four South Koreans in the field: Tom Kim (+160), Beyong Hun An (+210), Si Woo Kim (+220), and K.H. Lee (+1100).

Si Woo Kim, though, leads the quartet in strokes gained: tee to green over the last 12 months and is a hyper accurate driver (11th in the full field in that sample).

Over the last 50 rounds, it's actually Tom Kim who has the better T2G numbers, but Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, and Beyong Hun An have some pretty similar splits of late, and Si Woo's odds are longest of the three.

Si Woo also won here in 2023.

My matchup model sees some value on Si Woo Kim in this one.

Henrik Norlander

• Top Nordic (+210)

Henrik Norlander is in a five-golfer market for Top Nordic this week, followed by Jesper Svensson (+240), Kris Ventura (+400), Tim Widing (+400), and Vincent Norrman (+650).

Of the five, Norlander's +0.35 true strokes gained per round over his last 50 is easily the best, and Svensson is next up at just +0.06.

Norlander is also gaining +0.96 SGT2G in this span, besting Ventura's +0.58; Widing is next at just +0.02.

My model sees slight value on Norlander, who has two top-20s here in the last four years, in this market.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.