One Wide Receiver to Target in Each Round of Your Fantasy Football Draft

Just a decade ago, running backs made up five of the first six picks in fantasy football by average draft position (ADP) -- even in PPR formats.

In 2024, six of the first nine players by ADP are now wide receivers in PPR formats. The "Zero RB" strategy changed the fantasy football world forever, and it's varied the way that all positions are accumulated in drafts.

Regardless of when you nab productive wideouts, there's no debating their current importance to winning fantasy football championships. With an ADP of 12.0, CeeDee Lamb was the player most commonly found on ESPN winning rosters last season (30.6%). Second in that category was Amon-Ra St. Brown (24.8%), who could be had in the middle of most second rounds. Of course, then there was the rookie league-winner himself, Puka Nacua. A last-pick dart at Nacua paid the investment in full as the historic Los Angeles Rams rookie was on 21.1% of rosters.

You can find top-of-the-line wideouts at nearly any point in a fantasy football draft, so whether you want to draft them early, late, or anywhere in between, I wanted to devise a "grocery list" of wideouts to look out for in each round.

Though tastes may differ, the ultimate goal with the groceries is the same -- a delicious meal that ends in a fantasy football title. Here's my favorite set of ingredients.

If you're looking for running backs, that piece is also available.

Note: A player's ADP data comes from FantasyPros' half-PPR data. The basis for rounds used in this piece is from 12-player leagues.

One Wide Receiver to Target in Each Round of Fantasy Football Drafts

Round 1

Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals (6.0 ADP)

In my full preview of Ja'Marr Chase, I dubbed Chase "the sleeping giant" of the first round.

CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tyreek Hill, and Justin Jefferson's limited sample of quarterback-proof production are going ahead of Chase in most leagues, but there's sort of a hidden reality about his situation. The Bengals' quarterback is significantly more accomplished than any of those four's, and Cincinnati will need Chase more than ever in 2024.

Both Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd left in the offseason, which should allow Chase to build on a 26.3% target share (13th among NFL qualifiers) and 3.7 downfield plus red zone targets per contest. Mixon and Boyd combined for 4.8 red zone opportunities per game last season, and that's where Chase needs to make up ground. He scored just seven receiving TDs (18th in the league) despite 8.0 expected touchdowns (9th), per Pro Football Focus (PFF)'s expected fantasy points model.

Joe Burrow was also not himself last year at -0.06 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db), according to NFL's NextGenStats. A healthy Burrow in camp is already a good prognosis for the Stripes despite his new haircut.

Lamb should be the first wideout of the board given his total monopoly of the Dallas Cowboys' target tree, but he's likely not making it beyond the third pick. If you select later, Chase is a roaring start to a "Zero RB" build.

Round 2

Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints (24.0 ADP)

It's possible Chris Olave has just scratched the surface of his ultimate potential.

A man I once compared to Paul George in football cleats, the smooth-gliding Saints wideout has produced back-to-back WR20 or better seasons in half-PPR formats and held a 25.0% target share last year, but his life to put up fantasy production might have gotten a whole lot easier this summer.

The Saints waived goodbye to Pete Carmichael, the author of Taysom Hill's migraine-inducing red zone role. They hired former San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings assistant Klint Kubiak in his place. This should help Olave in two key respects. The first is scoring more with less red zone buffoonery; a huge reason why Olave underperformed last year was a mere five scores compared to 6.6 expected, per PFF. Secondarily, Kubiak's offense will likely lead to better looks for him considering the uncreative 2023 Saints pushed both Olave and Rashid Shaheed into top-12 rates of running "go" routes that produce inefficient, unpredictable targets.

Derek Carr has a history of supporting solid fantasy production, including a WR3 season for Davante Adams two years ago. Olave produced in lockstep with Garrett Wilson in their final season with the Ohio State Buckeyes, so I'm not sure we're properly projecting Olave's path to be a true WR1 this season given minimal competition in New Orleans.

Round 3

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins (35.7 ADP)

An odd season might be masking just truly how good Jaylen Waddle is -- and can be in 2024.

Waddle was sixth among qualifiers in yards per route run (2.83 YPRR) last season, ranking below only Lamb, Jefferson, Hill, Brandon Aiyuk, and Nico Collins. The problem? The Dolphins had such wonky scripts -- including scoring 70 in a game -- that Waddle's overall routes were greatly suppressed (73.6% rate). The former Alabama Crimson Tide star also battled an abdominal injury that limited his effectiveness and caused him to leave three different contests early.

As Tyreek Hill now hits 30 and the Dolphins giving Waddle a massive 3-year, $85 million extension in the offseason, it wouldn't be overly surprising if this "excellent A with an excellent B" situation morphs into a true 1A-1B setup where Waddle's target share (22.7% in 2023) is much closer to Hill's (32.7%).

There's also room for him to grow in the scoring column, where he posted just four touchdowns as Miami ran for an astronomical 27 TDs in part due to those leads that limited Waddle's snaps. FanDuel's NFL season specials odds have the Dolphins with the 7th-best odds to lead the league in points (+1400) but just 13th-best odds to lead the league in wins (+2100), meaning we could get more competitive affairs, pass volume, and shootouts in South Beach this season.

Miami's end-of-season schedule passing through three cold-weather cities in their final six games has made it hard for me to pull the trigger on Hill in the first round. In the third round, Waddle could produce like a WR1 early in the season, positioning managers to sell him at the deadline if these concerns are prevalent.

Round 4

Malik Nabers, New York Giants (54.7 ADP)

The days of rookie wideouts being off the board early are long gone. In addition to Marvin Harrison Jr. being off the board in the first two rounds, Malik Nabers is quickly rising into the first four rounds.

Nabers was the sixth overall pick in May's 2024 NFL Draft, where the Giants added the perimeter weapon they so desperately needed. No Giants wideout posted better than a 19.5% target share or 775 receiving yards last season. which could both be marks the dynamic rookie from the LSU Tigers dwarfs in a healthy season.

While there's understandable trepidation about Daniel Jones relative to Harrison Jr.'s plug-and-play situation with Kyler Murray, a go-to wide receiver could be enormously helpful for Danny Dimes. He posted a manageable -0.04 EPA/db in 2022, so returning to that in lieu of last year's -0.33 should be enough to sustain decent volume for Nabers.

Though his production might not matter in terms of outcome, there is plenty of circumstantial evidence that New York will need Nabers' services. Their win total odds, per FanDuel Sportsbook, are set at a mere 6.5 victories, and PFF ranks the Giants' secondary as the second-worst in football. The team also lost Saquon Barkley without an extremely notable replacement, meaning they'll likely have a higher pass rate regardless of situation this season.

This part of the draft is where we start to get into elite volume players on poor offenses, and Nabers' exceptional draft profile mirrors that of other graduates from "Wide Receiver U" like Ja'Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson. He could be extremely special in a lost campaign.

Round 5

George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers (58.3 ADP)

A lot will have to go wrong for George Pickens to not encroach a 30.0% target share in a make-it-or-break-it season for the enigmatic pass-catcher.

The Steelers shipped off Diontae Johnson in the offseason, clearing a path in a wideout room that now only includes 2024 draftee Roman Wilson, Van Jefferson, and Calvin Austin III as notable names behind him. Wilson already left a practice on a cart and is "week-to-week" with injury, as well.

I get the concerns, though. "Going wrong" in fantasy football is new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith's specialty. The architect of recent failed seasons for Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts with the Atlanta Falcons is already doing his best to scheme up a Darnell Washington breakout at backup tight end, but it's undeniable that Pickens -- not competing in a trio like that -- should still see solid volume.

That's especially true when we can't eliminate the case for him entirely at quarterback. Justin Fields maintained a WR6 season in half-PPR leagues for D.J. Moore last season, and Russell Wilson propelled Courtland Sutton to a WR35 finish -- well beyond his ADP -- in numberFire's eighth-worst schedule-adjusted passing offense overall.

Pickens is a play on volume (and therefore floor) in this range but does provide some WR1 upside should you choose to invest in the running back position early.

With how popularized "Zero RB" has become, he might even slide a bit in your draft as this is usually the point RBs begin to fly off the board. I've leaned into a "Hero RB" build this season considering Pickens, Tee Higgins, and Zay Flowers make this a pretty sporty round to grab a wideout.

Round 6

Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders (72.3 ADP)

Defying what we know to be true about NFL passing production, Terry McLaurin has passed the 1,000-receiving-yard mark in four straight seasons despite 10 different starting quarterbacks since he entered the league in 2019.

There's an obvious reason for optimism about him in 2024. At long last, Jayden Daniels has the chance to be an elite prospect that keeps that number at 10 for a while longer. Daniels is coming off a Heisman Trophy season with Malik Nabers at LSU where he completed 72.2% of his passes and averaged 8.4 yards per rush in the teeth of the SEC.

If he hits, this Commanders offense could soar in the way the Houston Texans did with C.J. Stroud a year ago. McLaurin's counting numbers could climb the way that Nico Collins' adjusted efficiency became actual production, too. McLaurin's uncatchable targets with separation (11) were right there with Chase and Olave.

New offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury also adds to the fantasy appeal of all players inside the Washington attack. In his last season with the Arizona Cardinals in 2022, Kingsbury's offense was second-quickest in seconds per play (25.2) and had the league's fifth-highest pass rate (62.1%), via NextGenStats.

The only downside to McLaurin is that I'm often scooping up Daniels (109.3 ADP) and former first-round pick Jahan Dotson (158.0 ADP) with similar glee at a lower acquisition cost. Personally, this is usually a tight end (Kyle Pitts) or quarterback (Joe Burrow or Jordan Love) round.

Round 7

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (78.0 ADP)

This upcoming year for Chris Godwin could be an awesome reminder why coaching philosophy and general variance can both shift for a player even if the personnel is exactly the same.

Godwin still will share top pass-catching duties with Mike Evans in Tampa, and the two were far closer than the 77.3 half-PPR fantasy points between them in 2023 would suggest. Godwin had a 23.1% target share to Evans' 24.7%, and he ran 87.4% of the Bucs' routes to 85.6% for Evans.

The difference came in Evans' 13 touchdowns to Godwin's 2. PFF's expected touchdowns showed 10.6 for Evans and 6.6 for Godwin. They'd be drafted far closer together if that played out on the field.

Nonetheless, touchdown variance isn't the only reason to take him. Godwin posted three straight top-20 fantasy seasons among receivers (in half-PPR) when playing at least 50% of his snaps from the slot, and that rate dipped to just 32.1% last year. The team has confirmed he'll be back in that slot role after drafting Jalen McMillan.

McMillan -- a 1B to Rome Odunze's 1A with the Washington Huskies in 2022 before his 2023 injury-marred campaign -- is likely the biggest negative for Evans and Godwin, but a seventh-round ADP for potentially Tampa's top target-earner is hard to pass up. That's especially true given he's just 28 and a proven producer in fantasy football.

Round 8

Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers (91.3 ADP)

From Dave Canales' old NFC South club to his new one, Diontae Johnson will have an opportunity to show his slow career start in Pittsburgh was more enviornment than talent.

As mentioned with Pickens, Johnson was dealt to the Panthers before the 2024 NFL Draft, adding another proven weapon to Bryce Young's cabinet alongside Adam Thielen. Though Johnson never quite broke out, he did top 850 receiving yards in three straight campaigns amidst awful-to-mediocre quarterback play with the Steelers before 2023. In 2023, Pickens (67.1 receiving yards per game) beat out Johnson (51.2) for the top spot on the team even when adjusting for the latter's three games missed due to a hamstring injury in Week 1.

Thielen is now 33 years old, and despite a hot start in 2023, he failed to eclipse 75 receiving yards in 9 of his last 10 games. First-round pick Xavier Legette is also a second injury deep this offseason. Undoubtedly, Johnson will assume the top role in Canales' offense that orchestrated a marvelous season for Mike Evans last year, landing him a WR5 finish with an eerily similar former No. 1 pick of shorter stature.

There's very little standing in Diontae's way from a target share north of 25.0% in Carolina. If Young takes a leap toward the guy he was expected to be in draft circles last season, Johnson should pummel this acquisition cost for managers.

Round 9

Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers (104.0 ADP)

Everybody has their take on the Packers' wide receiving corps. Christian Watson is the guy I want at his average going rate.

Watson's history of fantasy production when on the field is that he's the clear lead choice among his current competitors; it's just the "when on the field" problem that we'll have to address. In his rookie season, the former South Dakota State star earned the trust of Aaron Rodgers to emerge with a team-best 22.4% target share in the last six weeks of the year, and 5.4 of those 6.4 targets per game came downfield or in the red zone.

He was limited to just eight games last season where he was off a "pitch count" and able to play at least 70.0% of the snaps. In those contests, Watson led the team in route rate (81.2%), target share (18.4%), downfield targets (3.9), and red zone looks (1.5) again.

When everyone was at full strength, he was firmly ahead of Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks on the perimeter, and Jayden Reed's slot position comes off the field in 12 personnel. Those three just had significant moments in Watson's stead to "reopen" this competition.

Obviously, the risk here is Watson's health. He's missed nine games overall in two years and has been on a "pitch count" under 60.0% of the snaps in nine others. This is the time of year where you buy or reject injury news, and I'm significantly interested by rumors that a biological study into his hamstring composition may help Watson avoid this one, consistent, nagging issue that's kept him off the field.

If he's able to suit up for a majority of Green Bay's games with this same team-best role, Watson will be putting up major fantasy points in one of the league's hottest offenses from the second half last season.

Round 10

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks (116.0 ADP)

Taken with the 20th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft as the first wideout off the board, some wondered if Jaxon Smith-Njigba would explode onto the fantasy scene as Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson did in their rookie seasons.

If you had to give him a grade on that, it may very well be "incomplete". JSN was limited to just 64.2% of the snaps last year as the slot man in a season where D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett combined to miss just one game.

This role just didn't suit him. JSN had just a 6.4 average depth of target (aDOT), eliminating some of the big-play threat (16.9 YPC in 2021) that he had established in college. The Seahawks, in turn, went out and got an offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb from the Washington Huskies, that just produced a trio of draft picks that all averaged at least 12.4 YPC in their final campaign.

Lockett's potential decline is also another factor that makes Smith-Njigba a potential breakout candidate. At 31 years old as a smaller wideout, Lockett just posted his lowest YPRR since 2017 (1.68). He's also been vocal about reducing his potential for yards after catch (YAC) by sliding to preserve his career, but that doesn't help his production. It's possible he moves to the slot in 2024.

Geno Smith was quietly effective last season, ranking eighth among qualifiers in passing success rate (49.1%). If Grubb turns this offense into a faster-paced, pass-heavy unit as he did Washington, Smith's production -- and his favorite targets -- could explode. JSN is wonderful value here if he's the #2 guy in the pecking order within that type of environment.

Round 11

Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions (123.3 ADP)

A guy with nearly identical draft capital to Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave in one of the league's best offenses is barely being selected in fantasy drafts entering his third year despite some promising moments when healthy. Does that even make any sense?

It's been a precipitous fall for Jameson Williams since draft night in 2022, yet there is reason to believe he erases a tough couple of campaigns this season. Williams' 2022 season was torched by his college ACL tear, which left him below 30.0% of the snaps in all six games played. In 2023, he was suspended for two games for violating the NFL's gambling policy, and that led to just four games with a snap share above 70.0% as Josh Reynolds vaulted him on the depth chart.

Reynolds has departed for the Denver Broncos, so it's a bit confusing that the former first-round pick is chalked up as the current WR48 by ADP when Reynolds, battling him, was the WR63. Forget Reynolds' bar of 6.3 half-PPR points per game; is it out of the realm of possibility that Jamo usurps tight end Sam LaPorta as the secondary receiving target in this offense? Williams' 1.47 YPRR wasn't horrible in a suboptimal role to produce.

PFF's expected fantasy points model shows that all of LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and both Lions running backs exceeded their expected touchdown projections last season. A lot of that had to do with the other potential contributors in Detroit, and as a result, those four are all going pretty early in 2024 drafts.

I find myself getting my most exposure to this awesome Lions offense, still led by Ben Johnson, via Williams toward the end of the draft.

Round 12

Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills (138.7 ADP)

If there's an "incumbent" in this season's new-look Bills wide receiving corps, it's Khalil Shakir. It's a bit perplexing that he's going so far behind the new challengers.

After Joe Brady took over as the Buffalo playcaller in Week 11 last season, Shakir was arguably the Bills' most impressive wideout on paper -- and I'm not even talking about his pair of playoff touchdowns. In the regular season under Brady, the former Boise State Broncos speedster posted a 72.1% route rate, leading the team in catch rate over expectation (11.0%), receiving yards over expectation per game (23.3), and YPRR (2.10). Stefon Diggs played in these games, folks.

Plenty of targets should be available with Diggs and Gabriel Davis in new cities, and I'm a bit perplexed as to why the meaningful ones are expected to end up in the hands of Keon Coleman (116.0 ADP) or Curtis Samuel (128.7 ADP) above him. Coleman's 24.9% target share last season didn't even lead a mediocre Florida State Seminoles passing attack, and there's a known limitation to Samuel's perpetually low aDOT (7.0 yards in 2023).

Brady's designed rush rate (46.5%) was second-highest in the NFL in his tenure, so we want to be wary of this passing offense in general. Still, in the final round of the draft, you could argue that Shakir represents Buffalo's best projection for downfield work on the other end of Josh Allen's cannon.

Though this fall's U.S. presidential election now has no incumbent, the incumbent wide receiver in Buffalo is running a pretty strong campaign for your pick in the final round.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.