One Bust to Avoid in Each Round of Your Fantasy Football Draft

Personally, the most crucial element of fantasy football is knowing who not to take.

While we obsess over "value" at average draft position (ADP) this time of year, your season isn't going to end because your WR2 is healthy, in the lineup, and producing at a WR3 level. You're going to lose your league because your second-round pick isn't getting the ball or is out for the season.

So, while I've written up a running back or a wide receiver to target in each round of your fantasy football draft, it's much more important for me to write up the landmine to avoid in each round. If you miss out on those RBs or WRs, your team could still ball out. Your late-round pick could be a gem. If you take these guys early, your season might be toast.

Here's a list of guys I'm not touching with a 10-foot pole in any fantasy drafts. They're almost all popular names and players, so let out a chuckle if your leaguemates take them.

Note: A player's ADP data comes from FantasyPros' half-PPR data. The basis for rounds used in this piece is from 12-player leagues using half-PPR scoring.

Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid

Round 1

A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles (9.7 ADP)

To me, A.J. Brown is the worst pick of this year's first round. You really get nothing elite for an elite investment other than his on-field talent.

Does Brown's workload fit that description? Kind of. He was sixth in target share last season (30.4%), but that dropped to 27.5% in his final eight games, and this doesn't profile to be an offense where he's going to be the guy by a mile. DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are the incumbents, and the team added star running back Saquon Barkley and 2022 first-rounder Jahan Dotson this offseason. There are plenty of mouths to feed; I'm expecting a much lower target share for him in 2024.

Well, is he attached to a top-shelf passer? Not really. Jalen Hurts' fantasy excellence came more from his 15 rushing scores last year than his 0.00 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) as a passer. He trailed Derek Carr and Geno Smith in that category.

Quietly, Brown posted just 8.8 fantasy points per game (FPPG) over his final eight contests. Kellen Moore, the Birds' new offensive coordinator, will probably help this team's overall efficiency, but there's no guarantee that bump significantly translates to Brown versus other players.

Running back gets scarce from the third round through the sixth round. Do yourself a favor and snag Saquon Barkley or Jonathan Taylor where Brown would go, locking in a positional advantage heading into the dead zone.

Round 2

Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams (16.3 ADP)

As a dynasty manager of Kyren Williams, I can't trade him for peanuts right now. I badly want to. It's because we all kind of know "the deal" here.

The undoubted, featured tailback in a Sean McVay offense is as good as a fantasy asset gets, and we saw that with Williams last year. The fifth-rounder from the Notre Dame Fighting Irish has far exceeded NFL expectations and dominated to the tune of an RB2 finish in FPPG (19.9) last season. Kyren saw a gaudy 25.5 adjusted opportunities per game last season (fifth among qualifying RBs).

The problem is Williams doesn't seem built for this role, and the Rams know it, too. They drafted Blake Corum in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft, and they wouldn't have with a truly elite, physical running back.

Williams missed seven games in his rookie year with a hamstring injury, and a broken hand cost him five contests last season. He missed OTAs with a foot injury this season. The 5'9" tailback isn't built to carry this sort of workload.

There are only two likely outcomes to Kyren's season. He'll either get an elite workload early and likely break down once more, or in an effort to conserve him for the postseason, Corum will significantly eat into those opportunities that made him a steal in 2023.

Either way, it's just irresponsible to take him in the second round ahead of Travis Etienne, Isiah Pacheco, Joe Mixon and others with less competition and a longer track record of staying healthy through a full-time workload.

Round 3

Nico Collins, Houston Texans (31.3 ADP)

As my nominated top bust in fantasy football this season, Nico Collins feels like a blind investment into advanced stats without context.

Collins is a breakout candidate for most because he was second in the entire NFL in yards per route run (3.28 YPRR) last season, and his surrounding company -- Tyreek Hill, Brandon Aiyuk, and CeeDee Lamb -- make it pretty apparent than Collins is a good football player. The problem is the added context around Collins' last campaign.

He really came on after Tank Dell's season-ending leg injury. In the final eight games Dell and Collins played together last year, Dell's 23.2% target share was better than Collins' (21.4%), and the rookie posted 51.4 more air yards per game. They shared the exact same YPRR mark (2.57) in this time, yet Dell (64.3 ADP) is going significantly later in drafts.

Those two aren't all, as well. Stefon Diggs joins the team off six straight 1,000-yard seasons, Dalton Schultz returns and won't vanish entirely, and Joe Mixon commanded 22.6 adjusted opportunities last year in a Cincinnati Bengals offense with a stellar wide receiver corps.

It's easy to buy pieces of C.J. Stroud's arsenal, and there's a very low risk Nico is a complete faceplant if healthy because of him. However, this asking price relative to his teammates feels insane for a wide receiver that posted fewer than 8.0 FPPG in his first two years without the star quarterback. Dell and Diggs could both be better performers.

Don't draft Travis Kelce on a pitch count in this round, either.

Round 4

Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (37.7 ADP)

In many ways, Michael Pittman Jr. is not the type of player I'd write up as an obvious bust.

Pittman wasn't a touchdown merchant on the way to 12.2 FPPG a year ago, underperforming by 2.3 touchdowns relative to expectation, per Pro Football Focus' Expected Fantasy Points model. That's typically a player that could get luckier in 2024.

Overall, though, the volume-based receiver sees a huge hit from last year's 30.5% target share from -- mostly -- Gardner Minshew to working with Anthony Richardson now. Richardson's 0.01 EPA/db showed inconsistency in four games last year, and preseason reports haven't been promising on that front.

Plus, Pittman wasn't nearly as effective in five games last year where Jonathan Taylor was unleashed into at least 60.0% of the snaps. He posted just 10.2 FPPG without an end zone target in any of them as Taylor gobbled up 2.8 red zone carries per game. J.T.'s healthy and ready to go for 2024.

In a rush-first offense behind Richardson and Taylor, the team also added Adonai Mitchell in the second round of May's draft. Alec Pierce ran 93.8% of Indy's routes last year and commanded just 3.8 targets per game, which was a huge factor in Pittman's increased volume. Mitchell will now occupy that role as a talented prospect who posted 15.1 yards per catch (YPC) with the Texas Longhorns last season.

Though the uniform and Pittman's place on the Colts depth chart aren't changing, everything else about this offense has. I've got Pittman ranked as my WR32 -- well behind consensus -- while preferring the talent and/or offensive passing volume of DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Malik Nabers, or Tee Higgins in this area instead.

Round 5

Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings (55.0 ADP)

Some of these running backs that shifted teams this offseason are going to prove their ex-general managers correct. In one of the riskier decisions among them, the Green Bay Packers let go of Aaron Jones, but the talented fan favorite has a ton of red flags.

Jones' primary obstacle to paying off a fifth-round selection is health. At 29 years old, he played just 11 games last season and didn't play above 60.0% of the snaps in any regular season contest. He's averaged 2.43 missed games per season over his seven-year career. He did a good job of erasing this memory with two healthy, dynamic playoff games.

It's a significant question how many high-stakes games Minnesota will play in this season, though, per the Vikings win total odds sitting at -168 for seven or fewer Ws. This is an offense with plenty of perimeter talent and a decent offensive line when healthy, but Sam Darnold hasn't supported an elite offense yet, and Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson project to miss time already.

In a committee his entire career, Jones will have to hold off third-year back Ty Chandler for snaps. If he's given a lion's share of work, I'm not even sure he can maintain health through it.

This seems to be yet another year where the idea of having Aaron Jones as your RB2 trumps the actual experience.

Round 6

Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars (72.0 ADP)

If there's a top tight end to avoid, Jacksonville's Evan Engram is a name that stands out to me.

Similar to Pittman, Engram's TE6 finish in FPPG (10.2) in 2023 wasn't a product of touchdown variance in his direction. He only scored four times. However, when you look beyond the bottomline volume of 8.4 targets per game and don't fawn over that possibility for a tight end, there's just not much substance behind his work.

First of all, Engram's targets per game took off when Christian Kirk went down in Week 13. He was at 7.5 per game up to that point and spiked to 10.2 per game without the slot receiver that sees a lot of similar looks both short and underneath. With Kirk back healthy, that's a problem.

Secondarily, Engram only garnered 13.1% of the team's air yards in that first stretch and saw just 0.8 targets per game at least 10 yards downfield. His red zone looks (0.4 per game) weren't much better.

Though more forgivable for a high floor in PPR formats, there's not a lot of juice to lead the position in scoring -- something Dalton Kincaid, Kyle Pitts, George Kittle, and David Njoku could do if things broke exactly their way around him.

Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones being replaced on the boundary for Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabriel Davis doesn't do much to dramatically change Engram's underwhelming role. Wait for Jake Ferguson or Pat Freiermuth instead.

Round 7

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers (78.0 ADP)

Though even the narrative at FanDuel Research has been trying to secure the upside in the Packers' wide receiving room, the unspoken reality is that someone is therefore going to bomb relative to their ADP as others emerge.

I'll nominate Jayden Reed, who is a classic bust projection based on role and how he scored fantasy points last season. Reed's talent is undeniable, but the odds he emerges again from this room seem pretty slim.

Reed is a slot receiver, coming off the field and playing fewer snaps than Romeo Doubs or Dontayvion Wicks in every single game last season. He broke 70.0% of the team's snaps just twice all year. However, things got most grim in eight games where Christian Watson was off a pitch count and played at least 70.0% of the snaps.

In those contests, Reed ran just 63.8% of the team's routes and averaged just 5.7 touches per game. He just scored four touchdowns in these eight games as a band-aid to cover an unappealing workload for someone going in the top-80 picks of current drafts.

The former Michigan State Spartans standout's ability on limited touches could keep him fantasy-relevant, but I see a possibility he's hitting waivers early in the season if Watson, Wicks, and Doubs are healthy to limit him to only three-or-four receiver formations.

Round 8

Austin Ekeler, Washington Commanders (96.0 ADP)

Especially on a certain platform, selecting Austin Ekeler above teammate Brian Robinson and inside the top-100 picks seems ludicrous.

Ekeler was the RB1 overall in 2022, and his name value certainly is carrying more weight with this ADP than it did with the new-look Los Angeles Chargers front office, who let him walk from a running back corps that is still one of the weaker units in the league.

Last season, Ek averaged -0.27 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/c) compared to Robinson's +0.21. There's no doubt about the early-down role in this offense. He was brought in to be a receiving complement, but even in that area, Robinson (7.8 receiving yards over expectation per game) was more effective than Ekeler (4.3).

Something tells me this will be a frustrating backfield all season where Robinson is the more effective player but Ekeler, the league's most prominant advocate for fantasy football, will request to be involved in high-leverage situations to maintain relevance in that realm.

I'm firmly aboard the Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin hype train in Washington, but this headache can be one of my peers' issues. Tyjae Spears, Chase Brown, and Jerome Ford are high-upside handcuffs to potentially become RB1s in this tier of the draft. Meanwhile, Ekeler isn't even a lock to get early-down work over Chris Rodriguez Jr. if something happens to B-Rob.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.