Olympic Tennis: Best Bets for Wednesday 7/31/24

The men's and women's singles tennis tournaments are underway at the Paris Olympics. On Wednesday, the men will begin the third round while the women enter the quarterfinals.

Where can we find betting value in the next batch of matches?

Olympic Tennis Best Bet

Lorenzo Musetti vs. Taylor Fritz

Fritz ML (+105)

Taylor Fritz continues to show improved form on clay this season after notching a 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-2 win over Jack Draper in the second round, setting the stage for a third-round encounter versus Lorenzo Musetti.

Although the American finds himself as the slight underdog to the Italian, there's an argument he should perhaps be the favorite.

As a quick refresher, Fritz entered these games with a 13-6 record on clay for the year and wrapped up the clay swing up with his best-ever result at the French Open (round of 16). It's not like his form fell off in the grass season that followed, either, as he would go on to win a title at Eastbourne and reach the quarterfinals at Wimbledon.

Musetti has won both his Olympic matches in straight sets but came into the tournament with a modest 7-7 clay record. While Musetti has defeated Fritz in both of their meetings this season, they're 2-2 overall in their head-to-head, and their last match was a three-and-a-half-hour five-setter at the aforementioned Wimbledon.

Per Massey Ratings' matchup tool, Fritz has a 62% win probability against Musetti on clay, which would imply that the American should be a -163 favorite. Fritz also has the higher clay-blended Elo rating than Musetti, per Tennis Abstract. Given their last encounter, this one could be a tight matchup, but there's value in backing Fritz at plus odds.

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