Olympic Basketball: Best Bets for Thursday 8/1/24

Basketball at the 2024 Paris Olympics is rolling along. The women's competition features a four-game slate for Thursday. The men's competition will pick back up on Friday.

Olympic Basketball Best Bets

United States Women vs. Belgium

Breanna Stewart Over 18.5 Points (-106)

The USA will meet up with Belgium on Thursday at 3:00 pm ET.

The States won their first game against Japan by a score of 102-76. Breanna Stewart contributed 22 points in 26 minutes.

Stewart and A'ja Wilson are the clear leaders of Team USA. They've each won two MVPs in their WNBA careers and were the main contributors to the team's Gold medal run in the 2020 Olympics. Stewart was named the MVP in the 2020 games.

Stewie and A'ja each played a team-leading 26 minutes against Japan and combined for 31 field goal attempts (FGA), nearly half of the shot attempts for the team. This has been the norm.

So, heading into Thursday's contest, I like Stewie to score over 18.5 points, especially since the USA has a 93.5-point implied team total.

Belgium isn't nearly as small as Japan's team. In turn, we probably won't see Stewart walk past the opposing defense to the same degree as Monday's game.

However, she's still an at-will scorer against these inferior teams, and since Belgium may keep things a bit more competitive than Japan, we could see Stewart log more minutes. I'm also encouraged that she scores the majority of her points from high-percentage areas of the floor, which mitigates the risk of a bad shooting performance.

In addition, Stewart did not attempt a free throw against Japan despite averaging the third-most free throw attempts in the WNBA.

I expect Stewart to take on a similar workload that afforded her 22 points last time out. Tack on the possibility for freebies at the charity stripe and perhaps a slight uptick in minutes, and I'll side with the over.

Chelsea Gray Over 7.5 Assists (-120)

Arm one of the best point guards in the world with Stewart and Wilson, and an assist-friendly environment emerges.

Chelsea Gray collected 13 assists in the USA's win over Japan. She notched 10 dimes by halftime before playing less in the second half due to a blowout.

Gray logged 21 minutes in that game and should continue to see the most floor time behind Stewart and Wilson. Save for Kahleah Copper, who was limited after getting hurt against Japan, every member of Team USA played at least 11 minutes, while all but two played at least 14 minutes.

That's a somewhat uncharacteristic level of playing time parity for basketball in the Olympics. Sure, the women's USA team is so dominant that they can afford to share the wealth, but I'd consider 21 minutes for Gray closer to the floor than the ceiling.

The dimes won't be as easy to come by this time around since Belgium is a taller team than Japan. Even still, Gray should still be able to dump the ball inside to Stewart or Wilson for easy buckets, so I'll back the over on her assist prop.

Australian Women vs. Canada

Canada Over 66.5 Points (-122)

Canada dropped their first game to France by a score of 75-54.

54 points in 40 minutes is as brutal as it sounds, but that's what happens when a team shoots 32.1% from the field and 27.8% from downtown.

The North ran into a particularly infamous stretch in the second quarter. They scored just two points in that period and went 0-for-7 from downtown.

The Canadians are not this bad at basketball. Led by WNBA players Bridget Carleton, Kia Nurse, and Aaliyah Edwards, we could expect regression to strike in Thursday's game against Australia.

Carleton of the Minnesota Lynx owns a shining 43.5% 3P% in the WNBA this season, which is the third-best mark in the league. The sharpshooter is primed for better days against an Australia team that surrendered 29 three-point attempts (3PA) to Nigeria in their first Olympic contest.

Australia let up 75 points to Nigeria, even with the Nigerians going 35.3% from the field. This speaks to Australia's poor defense and quick pace.

This matchup looks to be fruitful for Canada's offense and shooting regression could rear its head, so I'll take them to score over 66.5 points.

Canada's ugly showing against France may have them underrated. I'd consider backing Canada +8.5 at -120 odds and their moneyline at +300 odds. They need a win in the group stage and I'm of the opinion that they are closer to Australia's level than the markets are suggesting.

Kia Nurse Over 10.5 Points (-113)

Kia Nurse mustered 11 points against France. She logged 27 minutes and took the second-most field goal attempts on the team.

Since I believe Canada is set up for greater scoring success than before, I'll side with Nurse to exceed 10.5 points once again. Save for Edwards, Canada's bench is used sparingly. This affords Nurse, Canada's starting shooting guard, appealing usage.

She went just 1-for-4 from downtown against France. Perhaps she'll have better shooting luck this go-around, or simply take on a higher shot volume against an Australia team that allowed Nigeria to shoot 29 3PA. Canada shot just 18 3PA in their first game.

Nurse has usage and a friendly scoring matchup on her side, so I'll target the over on her points prop.

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