Olympic Basketball: Best Bets for Friday 8/2/24

Basketball at the Paris Olympics continues Friday with four men's group phase games. Friday marks the beginning of the third and final wave of group phase games.

As a reminder, the top two teams from each group advance to the knockout round (along with the two best third-place teams).

Olympic Basketball Best Bets

Greece vs. Australia

Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 36.5 Points + Rebounds (-125)

Greece has had a rough showing at the Paris Olympics, suffering a pair of seven-point losses to Canada and Spain ahead of their final group phase game versus Australia.

Group A hasn't been kind to the Greeks, but that hasn't stopped Giannis Antetokounmpo from performing on the world stage. The two-time NBA MVP is averaging an Olympics-best 30.5 points per game, totaling 34 and 27 points, respectively.

He's been nearly as impactful on the glass where he's averaging the eighth-most rebounds per game (8.0).

In total, Giannis has racked up 61 points (on 34 shot attempts) and 16 rebounds. No other player on Greece has more than 26 points, 16 shot attempts, or 8 rebounds.

That's resulted in his totaling 39 and 38 combined points and rebounds across Greece's first two games. Against a fast-paced Australia team on Friday, I like that trend to continue and for Giannis to go over 36.5 points plus rebounds.

The Boomers have allowed the fifth-most points per game (86.5), but still put up a respectable 87.5 points per game themselves. As a result, this Greece-Australia matchup is tied for Friday's highest over/under (168.5).

Australia has primarily deployed two bigs thus far, 6-foot-11 Jock Landale and 6-foot-9 Nick Kay. Landale leads them in scoring and rebounding, and he's likely to spend a lot of time defending the 6-foot-11 Antetokounmpo.

The two don't have much familiarity, but they did face off head-to-head back in 2023. In a March Bucks-Suns matchup, Landale defended Giannis for a little under one minute of action, during which Antetokounmpo attempted five shots and scored four points, according to the NBA's advanced Player Tracking analysis.

That's the kind of aggression we can expect with Giannis against a middling defender. Considering his outsized role on this Greece team, I'm bullish on his chances of going over 36.5 combined points and rebounds.

Germany vs. France

France +3.5 (-110)

Victor Wembanyama Over 19.5 Points (-120)

The biggest game of the day takes place at 3 pm ET when Germany takes on France.

These sides are tied atop Group B, both sitting at 2-0.

Germany has had an easier go thus far, and that explains why they're favored against France. They've won both games by double-digits, outscoring Brazil by 13 and Japan by 20. Germany is averaging the third-most points per game (91.5) while posting the second-highest field goal percentage (51.9%) through two games.

France didn't face much resistance from Brail, beating them by 12, but narrowly avoided an upset from Japan. France eventually won, 94-90, though they needed every one of their 15 made threes to win in overtime.

But even with Japan making 16 threes (second-most in any game at the Paris Olympics), France still held them to 90 points in overtime. With Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama patrolling the paint, France's defense is one of the top units at the Paris Olympics.

You need to be able to stretch the floor against France's seven-footers, but that's not necessarily a strength of this German team. They're averaging only 10.5 threes (tied for 6th among 12 teams) on 34.4% shooting (8th) through 2 games.

Germany didn't shoot well against France in a pair of exhibitions last month, either, going 7-for-34 and 8-for-25 across 2 games.

They did split those two friendlies, but neither side was at full strength. When France won the first game (90-66), Germany was missing both Franz and Mo Wagner. Germany won the second matchup (70-66), but France didn't have Wembanyama.

Wemby torched Germany in his lone exhibition appearance, putting up 25 points on 10-of-16 shooting. France led by 20 at the half in that one.

They struggled on offense without him in the second exhibition but still managed to hold their own on defense. Even with the Wagners back, Germany scored only 70 points and trailed by as many as 11 in the first half.

With Wemby rolling (18.5 points per game) at the Paris Olympics, I'm expecting France to show up and cover +3.5 against Germany. Wembanyama should play a significant role in that, and he's already proven capable of scoring against this German side, so I'll look for him to go over 19.5 points as well.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.