Oaklawn Park Picks for Arkansas Derby Day, 3/29/25

The Oaklawn Park spur of the Kentucky Derby trail draws to a close on Saturday, March 29, with the Grade 1, $1.5 million Arkansas Derby. The race offers 100-50-25-15-10 points on the Kentucky Derby trail, meaning the top two are virtually assured a spot in the run for the roses, and even others who run well will get a spot if they run well in another prep or two. The card also features the $750,000 Fantasy Stakes (G2), a 100-point Kentucky Oaks prep that winner Thorpedo Anna used as her tune-up last year!

The Arkansas Derby and the Fantasy are the features on a 14-race card that begins at 11:20 a.m. Central Daylight Time. In addition to the two three-year-old points races, the card includes four other stakes races. Those include the Oaklawn Mile (G3) for older horses, the Matron for filly and mare sprinters, the Eclipse Overnight Stakes for older sprinters, and the American Pharoah Overnight Stakes for older dirt routers. You can watch all day long at FanDuel TV, and place your bets online with FanDuel!

Don’t forget to look at the weather and the scratches on race day. Saturday’s forecast for Hot Springs calls for a 60% chance of rain, making some scratches likely. Scratches can affect the pace scenario, so make sure to check before you bet.

Oaklawn Racing Picks

Race 1: $10,000 starter allowance, 1 ⅛ miles on the dirt - Executive Action, Cashmeup

FanDuel odds: 6-1 and 7-5

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There aren’t as many 1 ⅛-mile races for claiming or starter horses as there were in the days of yore, but Executive Action (6-1) shines when his connections can find them in the condition book: he is a perfect three-for-three at the trip. He also has two wins in six starts over an off track, meaning the rain won’t hold him back. Even though he was only fourth over a muddy track last out, that was against $30,000 starters, meaning this class drop should have him back against his friends. His tactical speed should get him a good trip. The trainer change since his last start is also a plus: he has moved to the barn of David Jacobson, who is a 21% winner with a positive ROI with new arrivals to his barn in the last three years.

In three starts since being claimed to the Norm Casse barn, Cashmeup (7-5) has been strong. After a narrow loss in a conditioned $35,000 race, he has won twice since. Both of those were victories against $12,500 starter horses over a wet track, one at 1 3/16 miles and one at 1 1/16 miles. This is a slightly lower starter condition than those two, with a distance right in between. He has been able to get a good stalking or tracking trip from a relatively outside gate in his last two, and should be able to work a similar trip in this race as well.

Race 12: Fantasy Stakes (G2), 1 1/16 miles on the dirt - Take Charge Milady, Simply Joking

FanDuel odds: 6-1 and 8-5

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Take Charge Milady (6-1) had a nightmare of a time last out in the Honeybee, with trouble at the start and more trouble during the race, even though she was already well back. Assuming she gets out of the gate better, something she has been able to do from a relatively inside gate before, she should be able to use her tactical speed to good effect. With rain in the forecast, it is also a plus that three starts back, she broke her maiden in stalk-and-pounce fashion over the mud at Oaklawn. Trainer Kenny McPeek won this race last year; he has been strong in Hot Springs this year, and has a live chance to win again at a square price.

Simply Joking (8-5) has freshened up since January, but she has two wins in stakes at Fair Grounds. She wired the Silverbulletday last out, something she may well be fast enough to do again. But, if she gets outjumped to the lead, a stalking victory in the Letellier Memorial two back showed that she can pass horses, too. Coming from the Whit Beckman barn means she may drift up from this price, at least with more established Oaklawn barns lining up with competition. But, a winning debut suggests she can fire fresh, and her Silverbulletday win showed a wet track is good news for her.

Race 13: Arkansas Derby (G1), 1 ⅛ miles on the dirt - Cornucopian, Coal Battle

FanDuel odds: 7-5 and 7-2

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Cornucopian (7-5) will be a well-defined favorite off of his impressive debut maiden win. Though he cedes experience to his foes here, there is enough leaning in his favor that he is likely to run to it anyway. He showed enough speed on debut to make him the speed of the speed in this field, likely to clear off despite the outside draw. His pedigree suggests he can stretch out, as he is a half to the likes of Guarana and Beatbox. And, he is trained by Bob Baffert, a frequent winner in three-year-old races in Arkansas and a five-time winner of the Arkansas Derby.

His strongest competition is the one best proven in the Oaklawn Park spur of the Kentucky Derby trail so far: Coal Battle (7-2). Coal Battle drew near the outside, so he should be able to work a clean trip. He is versatile to win from any kind of trip shape, as he has shown in his five career wins, including four straight stakes victories. He even has two wins over wet tracks, meaning the rainy weather should not stop him from making a strong effort.

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