Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 6

The Denver Nuggets have taken complete control of this series by winning three consecutive games. They are now -500 to advance to the Western Conference Finals when looking at FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA playoff odds, and about 76% of the public are on the Nuggets to cover the spread as underdogs tonight.

After winning the first two games of the series on the road, all of the Minnesota Timberwolves' momentum has completely disappeared. Denver was held to only 89.5 points per game (PPG) over the first two meetings and have logged 114.7 PPG during the previous three matchups. The Timberwolves' defense -- which finished first in rating during the regular season -- hasn't been producing at the usual rate.

How will Game 6 pan out? Will Minnesota snap their losing streak and force a Game 7, or will the defending NBA champions end this series on the road? Here's everything you need to know for tonight's collision, including the latest NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Nuggets-Timberwolves Betting Odds

Date and Time: Thursday, May 16th at 8:30 p.m. ET

Spread: Timberwolves -2.5 (-106)

Total: 205

Moneyline:

• Nuggets: +112
• Timberwolves: -132

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings and pace via DunksAndThrees.

• Nuggets:
  • nERD: 65.9 (4th)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 118.3 (4th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 112.9 (9th)
  • Pace: 97.1 (27th)
  • Against-the-Spread Record: 37-42-3
• Timberwolves:
  • nERD: 70.9 (3rd)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 115.0 (17th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 108.9 (1st)
  • Pace: 97.7 (22nd)
  • Against-the-Spread Record: 40-41-1

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Best Bet

Nuggets Moneyline (+112)

I'm expecting this series to wrap in Game 6. As previously mentioned, Minnesota's defense has not been up to snuff over the last three games. The unit now has the eighth-best defensive rating in the playoff at 111.6 (out of 16 teams). Compare this to the Wolves carrying the lowest rating in the Association at 108.4 during the regular season.

We saw the elite defense in full force during Minnesota's two wins in this series as they held Denver to a 40.5% field goal percentage (FG%). Over the last three games, the Nuggets have elevated their FG% to 55.2%. They've had a ton of success from three-point land, cashing in 36 of 77 attempts (46.8%) during the three-game winning streak. Even in Game 1's 106-99 loss, Denver still shot 41.9% from deep.

Initially, Minnesota's perimeter defense doesn't look too bad as they are giving up the fewest three-point shots per game in the postseason. However, opponents are shooting 39.7% from beyond the arc against the Timberwolves (worst mark in the playoffs). Perhaps, this is simply a stroke of bad luck with opposing teams catching fire from three.

However, I still cannot ignore this factor. Denver has been highly efficient from three in four of the games in the Western Conference Semifinals. They were also a formidable team from three during the regular season, converting 37.2% of their attempts (ninth-best).

If the Wolves' defensive struggles continue, their season could be over after Game 6. This has never been a team that relies on their scoring; they had the 14th-worst offensive rating during the regular season.

In Game 5, the Nuggets even controlled the battle around the rim. Denver outrebounded Minnesota by 5 and had 62 points in the paint compared to the Wolves' 48. This spells trouble across the board. This makes three straight games with the Nuggets winning the points in the paint battle, and controlling the glass only causes even more worry. Keep in mind that the T-Wolves have won the paint battle in five of their six wins in the playoffs and have surrendered the third-fewest points in the paint among active teams in the playoffs. If they aren't winning around the rim, it's unlikely that Minnesota will come out with the dub.

The Timberwolves have quickly unraveled after taking an early 2-0 lead in this series. The defending champions look the part once again and currently hold the second-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals (+270). The Denver moneyline has great value at +112, and considering how recent games have unfolded, I have plenty of confidence in the road underdog.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.