Nuggets vs. Lakers Western Conference Finals Betting Preview: Series Odds and Player Props

Following the Los Angeles Lakers 122-101 win over the Golden State Warriors in Game 6 on Saturday, the Western Conference Finals are now set.

For the second time in four years, the Lakers will face the Denver Nuggets with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line.

The series gets going on Tuesday with Game 1 in Denver.

Here's how the Lakers and Nuggets stack up heading into the Western Conference Finals.

All NBA odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Nuggets vs. Lakers Western Conference Finals: Moneyline, Total Games, and Correct Score

• Series Moneyline:
  • Nuggets: -165
  • Lakers: +140
• Total Games:
  • 4 (+700)
  • 5 (+240)
  • 6 (+195)
  • 7 (+180)
• Correct Score:
  • Nuggets 4-0 (+1000)
  • Nuggets 4-1 (+370)
  • Nuggets 4-2 (+550)
  • Nuggets 4-3 (+340)
  • Lakers 4-0 (+1900)
  • Lakers 4-1 (+1000)
  • Lakers 4-2 (+420)
  • Lakers 4-3 (+600)

Nuggets vs. Lakers Western Conference Finals Player Props: MVP Odds and Top Points Scorer

• MVP Odds:
  • Nikola Jokic: -150
  • Anthony Davis: +350
  • LeBron James: +350
  • Jamal Murray: +1600
  • Michael Porter Jr.: +11000
  • Aaron Gordon: +11000
  • Bruce Brown Jr.: +42000
  • Austin Reaves: +12000
  • D'Angelo Russell: +12000
  • Dennis Schroder: +12000
  • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: +42000
• Top Points Scorer:
  • Nikola Jokic: -140
  • LeBron James: +400
  • Anthony Davis: +500
  • Jamal Murray: +600
  • Michael Porter Jr.: +10000
  • D'Angelo Russell: +10000
  • Aaron Gordon: +13000
  • Austin Reaves: +13000
  • Rui Hachimura: +19000

Nuggets vs. Lakers Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings, pace, and shot distribution via DunksAndThrees.

• Nuggets:
  • nERD: 60.1 (7th)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 116.9 (5th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 114.2 (18th)
  • Pace: 98.5 (21st)
  • Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
    • Rim: 39.0% (2nd) - 66.5% (3rd)
    • Mid: 24.9% (12th) - 43.4% (13th)
    • 3PT: 36.1% (21st) - 37.9% (4th)
• Lakers:
  • nERD: 53.2 (13th)
  • Adjusted Offensive Rating: 114.4 (20th)
  • Adjusted Defensive Rating: 113.9 (13th)
  • Pace: 101.3 (6th)
  • Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
    • Rim: 38.9% (4th) - 64.4% (10th)
    • Mid: 26.1% (16th) - 42.3% (22nd)
    • 3PT: 35.1% (26th) - 34.6% (25th)

Nuggets vs. Lakers Western Conference Finals Analysis

For the second time in four years, the Lakers and Nuggets will clash in the Western Conference Finals. The last time these two sides met in the playoffs, the Lakers emerged victorious in five games in the bubble in Orlando in 2020. Los Angeles went on to win the NBA Championship.

In that meeting, the Lakers entered as the number-one seed and the favorite. This time around, the roles are reversed. The Nuggets enter as the top seed and favorite to advance against the seventh-seeded Lakers.

The Nuggets' path to the WCF has been relatively smooth. They dispatched the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games with an average margin of victory of 8.8 points. Their only loss came in an overtime defeat on the road in Game 4, with the Timberwolves fighting to avoid being swept. Against the Phoenix Suns in the second round, Denver needed an additional game to advance, but the result was never in doubt. Denver delivered the knockout blow with a 25-point victory on the road in Game 6. Once again, their only losses came on the road.

The Lakers' path was less straightforward. After a disappointing regular season, LA needed the play-in tournament to even make the postseason. An overtime win over the Timberwolves earned them the 7 seed and a meeting with the Memphis Grizzlies. With the edge in experience and elite play at home, the Lakers eliminated Memphis in six games. Against the Warriors, the Lakers maintained their dominant play at home, jumping out to a 3-1 lead before closing the series out with a 21-point victory in Game 6.

The result is a WCF clash between two sides whose postseason runs have been supported by exceptional play at home. The Nuggets and Lakers are both a perfect 6-0 at home this postseason. In Los Angeles, the Lakers have team plus/minus of +18.3, best in the league. The Nuggets are second, with a plus/minus of +14.2 in Denver. Both teams are holding their opponents to under 100.0 points per game at home.

The Lakers have been the slightly better side at home, averaging 117.7 points per game compared to the Nuggets' 113.8. The Lakers have an edge from the field, shooting 48.6%, compared to 47.3% for Denver, but the Nuggets have the edge from behind the arc. At home, Denver is shooting 39.8% from three, compared to just 34.7% for the Lakers.

On the road, both teams have had their struggles. Denver is 2-3 while LA is 2-4, with blowout losses to both Memphis and the Warriors. The Nuggets' road losses have not been caused by a faltering offense. Their 118.2 points per road game leads the league. The same can't be said for the Lakers, whose 107.2 points per away game ranks ninth. The issue away from home for Denver has been their defense, which is allowing 115.0 points per road game, 15.3 more points per game than at home. The Lakers are allowing 115.2 points per away game, 15.9 more than they do at Crypto.com Arena.

The battle between Nikola Jokic and Anthony Davis may be the defining matchup of this series. Both stars have seen their impact dip on the road, but Davis' decline has been more drastic. At home, Davis has a plus/minus of +17.3 this postseason, second in the league behind his teammate Austin Reaves (+17.7). On the road, Davis' plus/minus plummets to -2.3, ranked 98th among all players during these playoffs. Jokic's production on the road decreases, too, but by a much smaller margin, moving from +10.5 at home to +5.6 on the road. His road plus/minus ranks 13th.

If the results up to this point are any indication, homecourt advantage will be a huge factor in this series. While the Lakers have been slightly better at home, they are in the position of having to win a road game to advance. Denver has been slightly better on the road and could lean on that to regain homecourt advantage should they lose it. Given the home/road splits both teams have experienced up to this point, every game in this series is crucial, starting with Game 1 in Denver on Tuesday.

As it stands, the Nuggets are favorites to win Game 1 (-245), the series (-165), and have the second-best odds to win the NBA Finals (+230).

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.