NRFI Bets to Target on Friday 6/28/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Best NRFI Prop Bets

Washington Nationals at Tampa Bay Rays

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-122)

We don't have to worry about summer temperatures boosting bats while indoors at Tropicana Field, which also happens to be the league's fifth-most pitcher-friendly park, per Baseball Savant. This matchup sits at a modest 7.5 over/under, and while we have a pair of low-strikeout pitchers taking the mound, we should feel confident in the chances of a NRFI.

Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Zach Eflin will be tasked with silencing a Washington Nationals lineup that has been a target for NRFIs all season. The Nats rank last in both YRFI rate (13.8%) and first-inning wRC+ (50). Needless to say, this isn't an offense that typically offers much resistance.

This year, Eflin has posted a solid 3.67 xFIP and 3.42 xERA, and while his 18.7% strikeout rate isn't amazing, he possesses an elite 1.8% walk rate (100th percentile). While home runs have been a slight issue (1.33 HR/9), that's far less of a worry versus a team with a league-worst .076 ISO in the first inning.

In fact, no player in this game has shorter than +520 odds to hit a home run, which should also boost our faith in Washington's Mitchell Parker keeping the Rays' bats silent.

Owning a 3.30 ERA over 13 starts, the left-handed rookie has been a bright spot for the Nationals. Although Parker is likely to face an entire lineup of right-handed batters, he's held his own versus that handedness with a 4.08 xFIP, 18.6% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate, and 0.98 HR/9.

The Rays have performed well in the first inning lately, bumping up their YRFI rate to an above-average 29.6%, but both the low total and long home run odds point to runs being hard to come by tonight.

San Diego Padres at Boston Red Sox

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-130)

We're seeing a lofty 9.5 over/under at Fenway Park (second-best in park factor), which is tied for the day's highest total. While temperatures will be in just the 70s, it's the Boston Red Sox's matchup versus right-hander Randy Vasquez that should have us jumping on this YRFI bid.

It's hard to find many positives in Vasquez's 2024 campaign. Over 10 starts, he's recorded a 4.70 SIERA and an even worse 6.81 xERA, and he's logged a NRFI in just half those outings.

Making matters worse for the righty is that Boston projects to have lefties occupying as many as five of the first six slots in the order. Against left-handed batters this year, Vasquez is showing a 5.51 xFIP, 9.3% strikeout rate, and 8.1% walk rate. Five of the 10 dingers he's allowed have come off lefties (3.00 HR/9) despite logging less than half the innings compared to righties.

Not only will Vasquez need to contend with a dangerous Rafael Devers (97th percentile in xSLG), but leadoff man Jarren Duran is a menace when he gets on base with 20 stolen bases. While Boston is 14th in YRFI rate (28.8%), this looks like a golden opportunity to add one to their tally.

Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres will face a competent Nick Pivetta (3.56 xFIP and 27.2% K rate), but if there's one thing that's evergreen for Pivetta, it's that he gives up the long ball. The right-hander has allowed 1.87 HR/9 off a 47.4% fly-ball rate, and he's in just the 21st percentile in barrel rate.

Those home run issues have contributed to Pivetta owning a less stellar 63.6% NRFI rate this season and opens the door for the Padres to give us a YRFI before the Red Sox even come to the plate. The absence of Fernando Tatis Jr. is unfortunate, but Jake Cronenworth is demonstrating solid pop this year (.186 ISO), and Manny Machado has improved his play lately (137 wRC+ in June)

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.