NRFI Best Bets to Target on Tuesday 8/13/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Best Bets Today

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-118)

Great American Ball Park and temperatures in the 80s give the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds some hitter-friendly conditions to work with, but pitching should come out on top at the start for a NRFI.

Right-hander Hunter Greene has enjoyed a banner year, posting a 2.98 xERA (88th percentile), 27.6% strikeout rate (83rd percentile), 4.5% barrel rate (92nd percentile), and 32.8% hard-hit rate (87th percentile). Despite suppressing loud contact, his 0.66 HR/9 looks unsustainable for a guy allowing a 46.8% fly-ball rate, and both a 6.5% HR/FB rate and 4.19 xFIP point to some regression.

Still, it's hard to argue with his overall profile, and he's logged a NRFI in 20 of his 23 starts (87.0%). Those results are backed by him mowing down batters with a 33.3% K rate in the opening frame, as well.

Although St. Louis has performed better in the first inning lately, they still rank only 22nd in YRFI rate (23.5%) this year.

Erick Fedde comes into Tuesday with solid if unspectacular metrics, but he's consistently getting the job done in the first inning, converted a NRFI in 19 of his 23 outings (82.6%). Despite having a pedestrian 21.7% season-long strikeout rate, that jumps to 24.7% in the first inning and 26.1% the first time through the order.

The Reds have been about average in YRFI rate (26.9%), but their first-inning numbers have tailed off of late. Over the last 30 days, this offense owns the sixth-worst K rate (27.4%) and wRC+ (82) in the opening inning.

Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-130)

In one of the biggest surprises on Monday, the Chicago White Sox -- losers in 24 of their previous 25 contests -- blew out the New York Yankees 12-2, earning their first victory under new interim manager Grady Sizemore.

We probably shouldn't expect lightning to strike twice, though, and the Yankees are in a prime spot to get some revenge straight away against Tuesday starter Jonathan Cannon.

Over 12 starts (14 appearances), Cannon has amassed a 4.58 xFIP, 16.1% strikeout rate, and 40.2% ground-ball rate, and those aren't numbers that are likely to shut down all of Aaron Judge (+200 to hit a home run), Giancarlo Stanton (+260), and Juan Soto (+285). As of this writing, Judge has the shortest odds for a dinger on the entire slate.

Making matters worse for Cannon is that he's put up even uglier numbers in the first inning with a 5.54 xFIP and 11.1% K rate. The Yankees rank second in YRFI rate (39.2%) and have been even more frightening over their last 25 games (48.0%).

It's probably foolish to assume Chicago's recent change at manager will drastically improve their play down the stretch, but there have been many instances of teams rallying around interim managers like Sizemore, and they have nowhere to go but up.

If nothing else, they might be able to keep the momentum going against struggling lefty Nestor Cortes, who's failed to go five full innings in four of the last five starts while putting up a 5.45 xFIP, 15.8% K rate, and 2.3 HR/9. He's allowed a YRFI in three of those five outings, as well.

It also can't hurt that the White Sox might have just one lefty in the top half of the order against the southpaw. Against righties in 2024, Cortes has posted just a 4.29 xFIP and 21.2% strikeout rate while allowing 1.6 HR/9 off a 47.7% fly-ball rate.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.