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NRFI Best Bets to Target on Friday 7/26/24

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin

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NRFI Best Bets to Target on Friday 7/26/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Best Bets

Cleveland Guardians at Philadelphia Phillies

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-120)

When the Cleveland Guardians and Philadelphia Phillies face each other on Friday, it will be two pitchers who are on fantastic NRFI streaks squaring off. Ben Lively is slated to make his 18th start for the Guardians while Cristopher Sanchez is entering his 20th start in 2024.

Lively has excelled in the first inning thus far, producing a formidable 3.34 xFIP, 0.71 WHIP, and 27.0% strikeout rate while he's yet to surrender a homer in the opening frame. Those numbers have led to Lively recording a stellar 16-1 NRFI record -- including zero earned runs allowed in the first inning in each of his last 12 outings.

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Sanchez has also been excellent to open games, posting an elite 2.87 xFIP, 0.95 WHIP, and just a 1.4% walk rate in the opening inning. As a result, Sanchez has earned a 15-4 NRFI record, giving up zero earned runs in the opening frame in 10 consecutive starts.

Over the last 30 days, the Twins have tallied the sixth-worst wOBA (.237), sixth-worst wRC+ (56), and seventh-worst ISO (.090) in the first frame of games. While the Phillies have a lethal trio of Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper at the top of their lineup, Philly is registering the fifth-highest strikeout rate (25.1%) versus right-handed pitching in the last 30 days.

Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-138)

MacKenzie Gore and Sonny Gray are another pair of starting pitchers who have consistently achieved a NRFI this season, and they'll be on the mound when the Washington Nationals visit the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday. Gore is logging a solid 3.41 xFIP, 1.25 WHIP, and 36.5% strikeout rate in the first inning through his first 20 starts this year.

Aside from ranking in the 76th percentile in strikeout rate (26.4%), 65th percentile in barrel rate (6.8%), and 65th percentile in hard-hit rate (36.7%), Gore has notched a 17-3 NRFI record. Additionally, the Cardinals are sporting the 9th-worst wOBA (.300), 10th-worst wRC+ (95), and 3rd-worst ISO (.105) against left-handed pitchers over the last 30 days.

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Gray tends to strike out plenty of batters and avoid walks, sitting in the 92nd percentile in strikeout rate (30.7%) and 83rd percentile in walk rate (5.6%) across his 18 starts. The experienced righty for the Cardinals also performs well to begin games, accruing a 2.94 xFIP, 1.28 WHIP, and 29.7% strikeout rate in the first inning -- which has resulted in a 14-4 NRFI record.

Besides having the highest NRFI rate (83.5%) this season, the Nationals just allowed Dylan Cease to throw a complete game no-hitter on Thursday. In the last 30 days, Washington also boasts the 7th-worst wOBA (.299), 6th-worst wRC+ (91), 10th-worst ISO (.144), and 14th-highest strikeout rate (23.1%) when facing right-handed pitching.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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