NL MVP Odds: Ohtani Surges Ahead As Betts Breaks Hand

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
NL MVP Odds: Ohtani Surges Ahead As Betts Breaks Hand

Throughout the 2024 Major League Baseball campaign, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been well represented within the NL MVP betting market.

Heading into Father's Day (Jun. 16), Mookie Betts was the National League MVP frontrunner at +145 odds. Notably, Betts has since suffered a broken left hand after being hit by a pitch. As it is now, the dynamic Betts has plummeted on FanDuel's oddsboard, presently showing 30-to-1 odds to win his second MVP award.

Still, Betts going down opens up a favorable opportunity for his teammate, Shohei Ohtani. When it pertains to the latest NL MVP odds, Ohtani has moved from +450 to +180 upon Betts' injury. Of course, Ohtani crushed two homers in the same game that Betts went down.

Naturally, there are other contenders in this market that don't suit up in Dodger Blue. With most teams hovering around 90 left games to play in the regular season, much of this story has yet to be written.

Let's survey the NL MVP market as currently constructed.

All MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

2024 NL MVP Odds

Shohei Ohtani+180
Bryce Harper+300
Fernando Tatis Jr.+950
Freddie Freeman+1200
Marcell Ozuna+1300
William Contreras+1900
Ketel Marte+2100
View Full Table

Shohei Ohtani, DH, Dodgers (+180)

As noted, Ohtani is enjoying one of his best offensive campaigns to date. Given that he's been unable to play the field whatsoever in 2024, Ohtani's offensive approach has not missed a beat.

Currently, Shohei owns a .449 xwOBA, which is the highest mark of his career in that metric. Simply, he is hitting the baseball well enough to be the first primary designated hitter to win the National League MVP.

Ohtani has already won two MVPs as a member of the American League, but he is now poised to add one from the Senior Circuit. Entering Monday, Ohtani is sporting a .976 OPS, which is presently the fifth-best clip in MLB. From there, his Dodgers pace the NL West while boasting the league's second-best record.

When it comes to WAR (wins above replacement), Ohtani's 3.5 listing is the highest on the Dodgers sans Betts (3.8 WAR). With no definite timetable on Mookie's return, Ohtani will be casted further into the spotlight. If the mighty DH continues to power this Dodger lineup, Ohtani should have no issues wrapping up this award.

Bryce Harper, 1B, Phillies (+300)

A player who came into MLB as the game's "Chosen One," Bryce Harper is in search of a third NL MVP. He is undergoing his sixth year with the Philadelphia Phillies, which means he has spent almost half his Major League tenure in Philly.

Harper has thrived upon making the transition from the outfield to first base. 2024 has been Harper's first full campaign at baseball's position No. 3, and in that span, he's compiled an imposing .908 OPS. To up his production, Harper is drawing walks at a 15.5% rate.

To give Harper a boost in this year's MVP betting, his Fightin' Phils are currently owners of the National League's best record. When it comes to Philadelphia's odds to win the pennant, they are yielding +270 (second-shortest). Harper has been integral to team success, as he leads Philly in home runs (15) and OPS. From there, he is second in the team in runs scored (41) and RBI (46).

With approximately one month until MLB's All-Star Game in Texas, Harper is labeled with three-to-one odds to win the upcoming NL MVP award. With Los Angeles' Betts sidelined indefinitely, Harper now finds himself as the second-shortest favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Fernando Tatis Jr., OF, Padres (+950)

A slugging spark plug atop the San Diego Padres' lineup, Fernando Tatis Jr. has performed well in 2024. To make matters sweeter for "Slam" Diego, Tatis has appeared in all 75 of the Padres' games this year.

Tatis Jr. is presently navigating his fifth MLB season. Of course, he forfeited his entire 2022 campaign after being suspended for performance enhancers. Still, that's all in the past now, as Tatis is shining on offense and defense.

For a player that has previously led the NL in home runs, earned multiple Silver Sluggers, a Gold Glove and a Platinum Glove, Tatis has never brought back a Most Valuable Player award. Is that in the cards for 2024?

Interestingly, "El Niño" trails his Padre teammate Jurickson Profar (.912 OPS/.321 BA) in a majority of offensive categories. Still, Tatis is currently listed with +950 odds to win the MVP while Profar is garnering 60-to-1 odds in the same market.

When it comes to MVP voting, having a notable name certainly helps (perhaps part of the reason Profar is viewed as a steeper long shot compared to Tatis). If the Friars -- presently eight games out of the NL West's lead -- are able to close the gap between themselves and an ailing Dodger team down the stretch, expect Tatis to receive his flowers.

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