NL East Odds: Braves Still Big Favorites Despite the Phillies' Hot Start

The Atlanta Braves have been on a bit of run this past decade or so. They've won the NL East for seven straight seasons and finished with more than 100 wins in each of the last two campaigns. They're pacing for another 100-win season and are on a good track to claim an eighth straight division title.

But can they seal the deal this time with the 21-11 Philadelphia Phillies hot on their trail? Could they even stumble enough to allow the 16-15 New York Mets to catch up over the summer?

Let's check in on FanDuel Sportsbook's AL East odds market to see how those markets feel about the Braves' odds of claiming another division title.

All MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NL East Odds

Atlanta Braves (-380)

The Braves are heavy favorites to win the division already, even as we enter the month of May. Their star-studded roster carries some gravitas with it, giving them the edge over Philadelphia.

Atlanta's offense is looking like a juggernaut yet again this year. They're averaging an MLB-best 5.41 runs per game while only five other teams in the game averaging more than 5.00, period. That offense gives them a chance at winning even in games where their pitching could let them down.

Not that we've seen their pitching let them down much this year. The Braves are surrendering 3.76 runs per game on average in 2024, the sixth-fewest in the Majors and -- importantly -- the fewest in their division.

This is particularly impressive considering that the team lost top ace Spencer Strider for the season with an elbow injury. Chris Sale has been healthy and is pitching at a high level, sustaining a sub-1.00 WHIP while striking out 10.3 batters per 9 innings. Veteran arms Max Fried and Charlie Morton look on point so far, as well, and Reynaldo Lopez has worked to a team-low 1.50 ERA despite having started just one game in his previous two seasons.

There's a chance the Braves' older pitching crew -- which according to Baseball-Reference.com is the oldest in the league -- falls off as the season progresses, but like we mentioned before, their powerhouse offense should help them stay afloat through the season. It makes sense why they're the favorites to claim another division title.

Philadelphia Phillies (+300)

Despite technically having an extra win over the Braves, the Phillies are in second place in the NL East because they've played an extra three games more than Atlanta has so far. But still, it's certainly encouraging that the Phillies are pretty much keeping pace with a team whose +450 World Series Odds rank second-shortest on the market.

Is there really such a chasm between them and the Braves? Maybe, but I'm encouraged by what we've seen from Philadelphia this year, especially given the team's tendency toward slow starts in recent years. In 2023 and 2022, these Phillies were 25-30 and 21-29, respectively, by the end of May. In 2021 they fared even worse, carrying a 37-41 record through the end of June.

The 2024 Phillies are keeping pace with the Braves already, and all three of those Philadelphia teams that started slowly went on to have summer heaters and finished with winning records. If they keep on winning and go on to have their annual summer fireworks festival, this could be the team that dethrones Atlanta in the NL East.

The difference-maker for this iteration of the Phillies seems to be its pitching. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are still pitching to elite levels, but Ranger Suarez is playing unreal ball right now, too. Suarez is one of four pitchers to throw a complete game shutout and throw another 7.0 scoreless innings in the very next game after. Even Spencer Turnbull, a Detroit Tigers castoff, has looked like a stud for the Phillies this season.

The Braves are, rightfully, the favorites to win the division. They look like arguably the best team in baseball right now and have quite a bit of precedent to lean on. But the Phillies could give them a run for their money this year and look interesting at their current +300 odds.

New York Mets (+3000), Washington Nationals (+50000)

The New York Mets have the third-shortest odds to win the division at +3000. Frankly, is there really that much difference between the 16-15 Mets and the 15-16 Washington Nationals, whose +50000 odds to win the division are tied for the longest odds to win any division on the market?

To be clear, I do not especially think the Mets or the Nats have a strong chance of claiming the NL East. But they're standing on equal footing right now, and the disparity between their odds is noteworthy. If you think there's a chance the Phillies and the Braves are standing on shakier ground than it currently appears, a longshot bet on the Nationals would pay off significantly more than one on the Mets.

The Nationals might have an edge in the prospect department, as well, as both Dylan Crews and James Wood are top-15 prospects, according to MLB.com, and could add some juice to Washington's lineup in the summer.

On the flip side, the Mets have two top-50 prospects on MLB's rankings -- both Jett Williams and Drew Gilbert rank in the 40s -- and only Gilbert is expected to be called up this year.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.