NHL Vezina Trophy Odds: Swayman Moves to Co-Favorite After Ullmark Deal

Goalie performance is arguably the hardest year-to-year projection anywhere in the four major sports.

If you don't believe me, take a look at this past NHL season. In terms of the most useful advanced metric for goaltenders, goals saved above expectation (GSAx), we had significant risers and fallers.

Take Jordan Binnington of the St. Louis Blues. In 2022-23, Binnington's -6.45 GSAx were 15th-worst among all goalies in hockey. Last season, he stepped into the conversation for best goalie, awarded the Vezina Trophy, by sitting second overall in GSAx (29.74). He only trailed eventual winner Connor Hellebuyck (39.35 GSAx) in that regard after being one of the very worst in the sport the year prior.

Knowing this, many of the players with the shortest Vezina Trophy odds for 2024-25 are last year's front-runners. Does that mean a dark horse might emerge?

Let's dive into intriguing candidates across the market.

NHL Vezina Trophy Odds

Jeremy Swayman, Bruins (+600)

This may prove to be foolish, but I'm fading Hellebuyck at the top of this market.

The Winnipeg Jets netminder is now a two-time winner, but a shaky postseason (league-worst -6.74 GSAx) doesn't bring great confidence he bucks a growing trend that this award just doesn't go to someone back-to-back years. Martin Brodeur was the last to do so in 2006-07 and 2007-08, which ended a stretch of four in five years for arguably a top-three netminder ever. There just isn't that much separation between top guys in 2024.

Instead, let's dive into the other two co-favorites with him, starting with Jeremy Swayman of the Boston Bruins. Formerly one of the league's best goaltending prospects, Swayman is getting Vezina buzz as he'll be released into his first full season of duty after the B's traded backup Linus Ullmark to the Ottawa Senators.

The reason for it? Swayman's GSAx per game average (0.56) was right in line with Hellebuyck's (0.66) when considering he only played in 44 games splitting time with Ullmark.

Taking primary control of the reigns in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, Sway posted 11.64 GSAx in just 12 appearances. That overall mark only trailed the third co-favorite at +600.

Boston reinforced its defense with Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov on the opening day of free agency, and if they can return anywhere close as a defense to their 2.12 goals allowed per game in 2022-23, Swayman will have eye-popping counting stats to catch voters' eyes.

Igor Shesterkin, Rangers (+600)

Long considered one of the best goalies in the sport, Igor Shesterkin has a chance at his second Vezina Trophy. The first came in 2021-22.

He's definitely not struggled since winning the trophy. Shesterkin was 5th in GSAx in 2022-23 (27.84), and if there was a "down" season, it was last year when he finished 14th (17.36). That was still well above the league average, and Igor -- on the brightest stage -- turned it up to lead all netminders in GSAx in the Stanley Cup Playoffs (15.62).

The New York Rangers had an odd season last year where their 55-23-4 record was elite, but they were just 7th in goals-for percentage (55.2 GF%) and an even worse 12th in expected-goals-for percentage (51.9 xGF%). It's tough to project how their season goes, and that's a vital aspect to this award. Each of the last four Vezina winners (excluding the COVID-shortened season) came from teams that all won at least 52 games.

Shesterkin's individual talent meets the requirement to win this award, and he's a worthy co-favorite as the goaltender most would point to as the best -- and most consistent -- in the sport at present.

Jacob Markstrom, Devils (+1100)

If there's a player that stands out in the first tier, it's Jacob Markstrom for me, which is a bit crazy when there's ultimately risk as he shifts to a new team and defensive system.

On paper, the argument for Markstrom to lead the NHL in GSAx next year is certainly there. First, the former Calgary Flames netminder was second in the NHL to Hellebuyck in GSAx per game (0.60). He only logged 48 contests with Calgary due to a lower-body injury, which all but ended his Vezina campaign on the spot.

However, his new team, the New Jersey Devils, seem like a hotbed for Markstrom to demonstrate his value and thrust New Jersey into contention. They're an elite offense, ranking ninth in the NHL at 3.23 expected goals (xG) per 60 minutes last season, but they also allowed 3.22 per 60 minutes -- eighth-most.

Though Markstrom's counting stats might suffer in New Jersey, the easiest way to accrue goals saved above expectation is for expectations to be low, and that stat is paramount to winning this award. Each of the last five winners had a top-three mark in GSAx, and four of the five led the category outright.

If Markstrom turns in that sort of a team for a Devils team contending for a Metropolitan Division title, he'll be in this conversation.

Jake Oettinger, Stars (+1500)

I began talking about how cyclical goaltending can be in the NHL as Binnington went from a zero to a hero last year. My pick to do so in 2024-25 is Jake Oettinger of the Dallas Stars.

Oettinger's struggles in 2023-24 kept the Stars from running away with the Western Conference and Central Division, but the most shocking part about them was how talented the 25-year-old had already proven to be.

In 2022-23, Oettinger was eighth in GSAx (21.65). Then, his meltdown began in the 2023 playoffs, posting the second-worst GSAx (-7.39) of all goalies to appear. That translated to a down season a year ago as he could only muster 1.46 GSAx in 54 appearances -- 51st of 96 total goalies that qualified.

However, the Stars' lead man seemed to rediscover himself in this past year's postseason run. He was sixth among goalies with 4.93 GSAx, which was even more impressive given the onslaught all three of the Vegas Golden Knights, Colorado Avalanche, and Edmonton Oilers could provide. There was no cupcake in his bracket.

If Oetter can carry that positive momentum in 2024-25 as he did the negative momentum in 2023-24, the Dallas 'tendy could be set up for a showcase season on a team currently tied for the second-shortest odds to win the Stanley Cup (+1000).

Looking for the latest NHL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NHL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.