NHL Stanley Cup Odds Update: Avalanche Still the Favorites

Most teams are about halfway through the regular season, and the true contenders who can actually win the Stanley Cup are emerging. There will still be some changes at the trade deadline, but let's see where things stand as of now.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

Colorado Avalanche (+750)

The Colorado Avalanche were the favorites coming into the season and remain that halfway through.

Things have not been smooth sailing for Colorado this season. They currently aren't leading their own division, trailing the Winnipeg Jets by a point with two more games played (as of 1/17). The roster has also seen its fair share of issues.

Only five skaters have played all 44 games this season. Luckily for the Avs, three of those players have been Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon and Devon Toews. The depth was a problem last season and continues to be a question mark.

The team brought in several forwards to improve their depth. The one who has worked out the best is Jonathan Drouin, especially of late. He has nine points in his last seven games. Ross Colton has also been good, with 10 goals on the season.

Others haven't worked out as well. Ryan Johansen has just 17 points in 44 games. Tomas Tatar was put on waivers because he wasn't working out. Miles Wood also hasn't been scoring or driving play in a positive direction. In fact, all of these guys have negative expected goals (xG)%, relative to their teammates.

Colorado's overall play at five-on-five is good but not great. They rank ninth in xG% at full strength. They have the offensive firepower to make up for it but maybe not the goaltending.

Alexandar Georgiev hasn't been as good this season in his second year as a starter. He's gone from .355 goals saved above expected per 60 minutes to .078 this season. He will definitely need to elevate his play to get into Cup-winning form.

Overall, a team with MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Cale Makar is always dangerous. However, Colorado's depth and other question marks make it hard to bet on them with the shortest odds of anyone by some margin.

Carolina Hurricanes (+1000)

Like Colorado, the Carolina Hurricanes were one of the favorites for the Stanley Cup coming into the season. They've also experienced some rough stretches so far.

The 'Canes have been their typical selves from an underlying numbers standpoint. They are third in xG% and first in shot-attempt% at five-on-five. They also allow the fewest shot attempts per 60 minutes, leading the Florida Panthers by over six shots.

Carolina hasn't gotten the best production out of their forwards. Their two best forwards --Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov -- have produced at a point-per-game pace. Other than that, they have just Seth Jarvis averaging above 0.7 points per game. Luckily, they benefit from scoring from the blue line. The Hurricanes have the third-most goals from defensemen in the NHL this season.

I've buried the lead a bit with Carolina's season. Goaltending has clearly been the story. Frederik Andersen was the starter to open the year but played just six games before having to be sidelined due to blood clots. They had made plans for two other goalies to see time, but that has not worked out at all.

Antti Raanta has allowed the second-most goals above expected per 60 minutes at .655. Pyotr Kochetkov hasn't been much better, allowing .220. Overall, the 'Canes have the second-worst team percentage in the league.

If Carolina can make a trade for a goalie and maybe an extra forward, they'll be a dangerous team in the playoffs. Getting +1000 makes them an intriguing team to bet on to win it all.

Dallas Stars (+1000)

A team that made the Conference Finals last season, the Dallas Stars look set to make a deep run once again. They are third place in the Central Division behind Colorado and Winnipeg.

The Stars spent some time with Jake Oettinger injured, but he's back between the pipes now. He's a better option than Scott Wedgewood, as there's a difference of .322 goals saved above expected between them on a per-60-minute basis.

Another key player who has missed time is Miro Heiskanen, and he is still injured. Luckily, he appears close to returning. The Stars blueline is a bit thin when he's not playing, so it's vital that they get him back and ready to go.

Dallas has been a very good team possession-wise this season. They rank fourth in xG% at five-on-five. They've improved on this from last season, going from 52.96% to 55.74%

The Stars are also good on special teams. Their power play is the 10th-best in the league at 23.3%, and their penalty kill is the third-best in the league at 84.9%.

The one area where Dallas might need to improve is in their defensive depth. Ryan Suter really showed his age in the playoffs last season. He's third on the team in ice time per game, something that could cause a problem against the better teams in the West.

This thinner defense has Dallas allowing three goals per game, 19th in the league. If they can improve in this area and allow fewer goals, they have a real shot to win the Cup. The +1000 is certainly a good enough price to consider wagering on.

Florida Panthers (+1000)

The Florida Panthers were last season's runner-up for the Stanley Cup. They are at a much better place than they were at this point last season.

The Panthers spent last year on the playoff bubble, finally getting in during the last week of the regular season. This year, they are comfortably in a playoff spot, sitting seven points ahead of the Toronto Maple Leafs for second in the Atlantic Division.

Florida sort of had to tread water before their top two defensemen returned to the lineup. Since Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour both returned on November 17th, the Panthers are the sixth-best team by points percentage. They are also the second-best five-on-five team during that span in terms of xG percentage.

Part of the reason the Panthers made their run to the Final last season was due to Sergei Bobrovsky. He saved .840 goals above expected per 60 minutes in the playoffs. That was by far the best mark of any goalie in the postseason and would have been the second-most in the regular season.

Bob has saved just .213 above expected per 60 this season. This is actually better than what he did last year during the regular season when he was at .131. He'll still need to take a jump in the playoffs if the team wants to win the Cup.

The Panthers' offense has been led by a red-hot Sam Reinhart. He's second in the league with 32 goals, one off his career-high 33 just halfway through the season, though he was on pace for close to 38 in the shortened 2021 season.

Something alarming about Reinhart is that he is shooting a massive 27.8% this season. That's well above his career mark of 15.2%. We would expect this to regress towards his career average, as no player in the league can sustain scoring on over a quarter of their shots on goal.

Florida's strong possession numbers make them a good candidate to win the Cup. They are arguably the most balanced team in the East, with a good amount of offensive talent and good defensive structure. I wouldn't mind taking them at +1000 to take it down.

Boston Bruins (+1100)

The Boston Bruins were a bit of a wild card heading into this season. After having the most points of all time in a regular season last year, they lost in the first round of the playoffs and then lost their top two centers in the offseason to retirement.

Now, it seems silly that people ever doubted them. They are close to the top of the league's standings again. Boston is third in the league in points and second by points percentage.

The formula for the Bruins isn't too different this year compared to last year. They rely on David Pastrnak for offense, and he's third in the league in points with 61. They don't allow a ton of goals, the fifth-fewest per game in the league. That's in large part due to their two reliable goaltenders.

All of the other top contenders have some questions about their goaltending. Not the Bruins, who can use either Linus Ullmark or Jeremy Swayman in net and have a reasonable chance to win. Ullmark had an advantage of .168 goals saved above expected per 60 minutes last season. This year, Swayman has the edge by .079.

Where the Bruins differ from last year is in their underlying numbers. They were the fourth-best team at xG% at five-on-five during the previous campaign. This season, they actually rank only 17th. Losing possession monster Patrice Bergeron has really hurt in this area.

Boston could really use a center at the trade deadline. The problem for them is that they have very little salary cap space to use in any trade. They'll have to get very creative to address this hole in their lineup.

If they aren't able to make an addition to that spot, their worrying possession numbers would make me shy away from betting them to win it all.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.