NHL Selke Trophy Odds: The Race for the Selke Is Wide Open

With the NHL season starting soon, we have some interesting markets to bet before the season.

Speculating on who will win the awards is always fun, and FanDuel Sportsbook has NHL awards odds listed for various trophies.

Today, we'll look at the Selke Trophy. The award for best defensive forward was Patrice Bergeron's to lose for years. With Bergeron now retired, this trophy is up for grabs.

Here are the four favorites to win the award heading into the season:

Nico Hischier, New Jersey Devils

Following the best season of his career, Nico Hischier was nominated for the Selke last season.

Hischier has always been a good defensive player since entering the league in 2017. He's been better in expected goals percentage relative to his teammates, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Even though the Selke is an award based on defensive play, it often takes a good offensive season for the voters to take notice. Hischier had a career high in points with 80 a year ago, so it's no coincidence that was the first season where he was nominated for the trophy.

It also helped that the New Jersey Devils were a surprise team last season and one of the best teams in the NHL. They were one of the best defensive teams in hockey, too, which is another notch in Hischier's favor.

Hischier is the clear favorite entering the season. While he certainly deserves to be among the favorites, there are some interesting names out there who will challenge him.

Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers

A previous winner of the award, Aleksander Barkov is capable of winning it again.

Barkov has had the reputation of being one of the league's best two-way centers for years now. Some of the voters are a bit slow on coming around and rely on reputations when making votes. It leads to guys winning the award maybe a year or two after when they were truly at their best.

That's not to say that Barkov isn't still good defensively -- he is. He's just slightly below the elite level; The Athletic rated him in only the 79th percentile.

Barkov himself joked that his faceoff percentage will increase with Bergeron retiring. There is a serious point in there, though, about if the Boston Bruins are worse because of Bergeron's absence. If the Florida Panthers can win the Atlantic Division, Barkov's chances to win the award get a bump up.

A good offensive season and playing close to a full 82-game campaign would also do wonders for Barkov's Selke chances.

Mitchell Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs

Mitchell Marner received the rare Selke nomination for a wing last season. Mark Stone was nominated twice recently, but the last time a winger won this award was Jere Lehtinen in 2003.

Marner did have a good year defensively last year. He rated in the 89th percentile for a winger in defensive impact and played a lot on the Toronto Maple Leafs' penalty kill. Toronto was the 10th-best team in expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five, and Marner deserves some credit for that.

However, Marner's inclusion as a finalist for this award feels like a creation of the media. The Leafs play in the center of the hockey universe in Toronto, and they are under a microscope. There is nothing in Marner's profile to suggest that if he was playing on a small-market team, he would be considered one of the best defensive forwards in the league.

He is not a player like Bergeron, one teams are trying to avoid matching up their best players against. There's a reason wingers tend not to win this award -- it's because they don't have nearly the same defensive responsibilities as a center.

The fact that Marner was able to get into the top three last season means it's possible that he could win the award in 2023-24. It would take a lot for him to win it, but some impressive underlying stats with some good offensive numbers would get him votes.

Anze Kopitar, Los Angeles Kings

With Bergeron retired and Jonathan Toews not playing this season, Anze Kopitar remains the last of the dominant two-way centers of the early 2010s. There was a stretch of seven straight seasons where the Selke went to one of those three.

Kopitar had a good season last year and finished fifth in the voting for this award. He ranked in the 88th percentile for defense, per The Athletic. His underlying numbers were actually some of the weaker ones in his career, but the relative numbers look a bit funky when you play for one of the better possession teams like the Los Angeles Kings.

The fact that Kopitar got some attention last season after he didn't really dominate possession shows that this award has a lot to do with reputation. The good news for his chances to win this season is that Kopitar's reputation will likely carry over. He also got credit for having a 55.9% faceoff success rate, even though faceoffs are not as important as people think.

Kopitar could be among the candidates again despite the flaws in his profile. Phillip Danault can take some of the tougher matchups defensively, as that's where he excels. This could lead to Kopitar getting easier assignments, racking up points and having solid possession numbers.

If the Kings are able to compete and possibly win the Pacific Division, Kopitar could get a lot of recognition.

Takeaways

The main takeaway from looking at the odds is that it's a great year to bet a long shot. This race is perhaps the most wide open of any award this season. Some intriguing players with longer odds are Jordan Staal (+2000), Mark Stone (+2500), Roope Hintz (+2500) and Matthew Tkachuk (+4000).

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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