NHL

NHL Division Odds: Will the Oilers Win the Pacific Division?

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
NHL Division Odds: Will the Oilers Win the Pacific Division?

The NHL season is only a few weeks away, and the teams are taking shape.

We pretty much know what these teams will look like when they hit the ice in October. With that knowledge, we can start to form some opinions on who will perform well this season.

Some people consider the Pacific Division to be the weakest in the NHL, but it did produce the Stanley Cup Champions last season.

Here are the four teams with the best odds to win the division, per the NHL divisional odds at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Team
Odds
Edmonton Oilers+185
Vegas Golden Knights+240
Los Angeles Kings+380
Calgary Flames+800

Edmonton Oilers

The Edmonton Oilers nearly won the Pacific Division last season, coming up just two points short after winning their last nine regular season games.

They'll head into this season with high hopes -- as any team with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl should have. However, these two have been playing together for years now, and the team has yet to really come close to winning a Stanley Cup. Hopefully for their sake, this year will be different.

Edmonton had their best regular season in the McDavid era last year. They scored 24 goals more than any other team, and this was largely due to a historic power play. Their 32.4% was the highest success rate in the NHL since this started being tracked in 1977-78.

The PP didn’t miss a beat after the trade of Tyson Barrie, who was tasked with running things from the blue line. The trade actually added an element to their already deadly man-advantage unit. Evan Bouchard has a booming slap shot that Barrie doesn't. After Barrie was traded, their goals per 60 minutes on the power play went from 13.12 to 13.58.

The five-on-five play came into question, but it was fairly strong overall during the regular season. They ranked fifth in both goals per 60 and expected goal (xG) percentage. Evander Kane being healthy would help the five-on-five goal scoring; he ranked fifth on the team with 15 even-strength goals despite playing exactly half the season.

The Barrie trade also gave the Oilers a solid defensive defenseman in Mattias Ekholm. He helped round out their defense pairs with Darnell Nurse, Cody Ceci, and Bouchard giving them a solid top four.

Questions will remain about the goaltending. The team ranked 16th in overall save percentage last season. Jack Campbell was a disaster in his first season with the team with -18.87 goals saved above expected (GSAX).

Stuart Skinner was the savior in net for the Oilers. He saved 18.40 goals above expected in his first full season -- something that wasn't anticipated before the year. With goaltending being fickle, it's difficult to count on him being this good again, but that's exactly what the Oilers need.

The power play and goaltending are clearly the keys to the season. If they hold up, the Oilers definitely have a chance of winning the division.

Vegas Golden Knights

Winning the Stanley Cup the year before doesn't guarantee that you'll even be favored to win your own division. The Vegas Golden Knights are the example of that this season.

Even after winning the division last season, Vegas wasn't fancied by the public to have a deep playoff run. That's because they ranked last among playoff teams in Corsi For percentage and also had questionable goaltending.

The five-on-five play can improve with some better health. Mark Stone is one of the best play drivers from the wing in the NHL and only played 43 regular season games. His impact was certainly felt in the playoffs, becoming the fourth-leading scorer in the postseason across the league.

Shea Theodore -- the team's second best defenseman -- also missed significant time in the regular season. He played just 55 games in the regular season. With both of these guys playing more games, the Golden Knights will definitely have a chance to repeat as divisional champs.

The goaltending situation is definitely still in flux. Adin Hill was the team's savior when Laurent Brossoit suffered his injury in the playoffs. Hill was solid in the regular season with 7.54 GSAX in 27 games but took that to another level in the postseason with 13.13 GSAX in 16 appearances.

The Knights will go with Hill and Logan Thompson as the duo in net. Both have shown flashes of being capable starting goalies but are unproven at handling the full workload. They will benefit from playing in Bruce Cassidy's system that is friendly for goalies.

The only major loss as was Reilly Smith, an original Golden Knight and a beloved player. The team decided to keep Ivan Barbashev instead, and he can do a lot of the same things Smith can on the ice.

Overall, the Golden Knights can compete for the division again if they stay healthy and get quality goaltending. That is a line that can be said for many contenders, but at least they have put themselves in that position.

Los Angeles Kings

The Los Angeles Kings have ended their rebuild in the last two seasons, qualifying for the playoffs in both years. They really signaled their intention to level up again with their moves this offseason.

It's easy to forget now, but the Kings had a chance to top the Pacific last season as late as March. On March 27th, they were two points behind Vegas for the first spot. A few untimely injuries cost them dearly with losses against their direct, divisional rivals, and they finished third.

The Kings had one big issue for the majority of last season. They had the second-worst team save percentage in the league. They had all the other hallmarks of a vintage Kings team with solid defensive play and good possession numbers.

Once they got the goalie, things started to take off. Joonas Korpisalo had a .922 save percentage and saved 6.54 goals above expected in just 11 games. LA had the third-best points percentage in the month of March after acquiring Korpisalo.

Unfortunately, the Kings weren't able to hold on to Korpisalo -- mostly due to salary cap. Now they'll have to turn to Cam Talbot, who had just 0.3 GSAX in 36 games last season with the Ottawa Senators. He'll split time with Pheonix Copley, a journeyman goalie who experienced his best NHL season last year.

The Kings' big splash of the offseason was acquiring Pierre-Luc Dubois. Dubois gives the Kings three solid centers between him, Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault. That is key if they have to match up with Edmonton in the playoffs again. Dubois is also capable of playing on the wing if needed.

L.A. has some young players that can develop. Quinton Byfield had a good stretch of play towards the end of the season. The team has high hopes for Brandt Clarke on defense after he dominated junior hockey last season. If these guys can live up to their draft pedigree, it will give the team a huge boost.

The Kings were likely closer to winning the division than people remember last season and can be considered a true dark horse in the Pacific.

Calgary Flames

The only team that holds top-four odds to win their division that missed the playoffs last season is the Calgary Flames.

Calgary had a strange season in 2022-23. They came off their sensational 2021-22 regular season -- that finished in disappointing fashion -- and had a wild offseason. Leading scorer John Gaudreau left in free agency, and Matthew Tkachuk requested a trade. They looked to be up a creek without a paddle at this point in the offseason.

They made a better trade than most expected. They got back Jonathan Huberdeau and Mackenzie Weegar from the Florida Panthers for Tkachuk. However, it did not work out well with Huberdeau, who saw his points drop from 115 in his final year with Florida to just 55. It's not entirely his fault as the overall offensive environment was much worse, but this reduction in production was staggering.

If the Flames were the best version of Daryl Sutter hockey in '21-22, they were close to the worst of that in '22-23. Sutter teams like to bombard teams with shot volume, play with physicality, and be structured defensively.

When that doesn't work, they look a lot like they did last season -- a possession-dominant team that struggles to score. The Flames were the third-best team in xG percentage last season but were the only team in the top seven of that metric to miss the playoffs.

Jacob Markstrom's play also fell off significantly. He went from 15.61 GSAx in 2021-22 to 1.50 in 2022-23.

With Sutter now gone, how will the team play this season? Can Huberdeau find his form from Florida? How will the looming trade requests from important players like Mikael Backlund and Elias Lindholm affect the team?

These are all questions the Flames will have to answer going into the season. They traded leading-scorer Tyler Toffoli over the summer, and how they will generate offense has to be a concern.

Calgary does still have a good amount of talent, but it is difficult to see them competing with the best teams in the Pacific.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.