NHL Division Odds: Metropolitan Loaded Once Again

The NHL season is only about a month away, and the teams are taking shape.

We pretty much know what these teams will look like when they hit the ice in October. With that knowledge, we can start to form some opinions on who will perform well this season.

Today, we'll look at some odds to win the Metropolitan Division. It's loaded with several teams that have aspirations to win the Stanley Cup.

Here are the top four contenders in the Metropolitan, with NHL division winner odds via FanDuel Sportsbook:

Carolina Hurricanes

The Carolina Hurricanes made the Eastern Conference Finals for the second time in five years. They have been consistently one of the best teams analytically over that time period, and not much should change in 2023-24.

Carolina has won three-straight division titles, two in the Metro and one in the Central during the Covid-impacted 2021 season. Last year, they only won the division by one point, and will face stiff competition again this season.

The Canes were once again the best team in the NHL in expected goals (xG) differential. They controlled 60.4% of the xG at five-on-five, according to Natural Stat Trick.

They still only ranked 15th in goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. It’s been their style for years to bludgeon teams with shot volume rather than efficiency, and it’s obviously worked for them. The return of Andrei Svechnikov should help them add some goals to the lineup.

The defensive group was already strong, but received an upgrade when they signed Dmitry Orlov. He's been an underrated defenseman in the NHL for a handful of years. They also re-acquired Tony DeAngelo, but he'll help more offensively than defensively.

Carolina's ability to win the division mostly comes down to goaltending. Frederik Andersen reverted back closer to his poor two seasons prior to joining the Canes rather than his excellent first season with the team. He finished the 2022-23 season with a .902 save percentage and 2.59 goals saved above expected.

Antti Raanta also had a downgrade in performance in his second season with Carolina, with a .909 save percentage. Pyotr Kochetkov may be the best option, but he's only played in 27 career NHL games.

Overall, the Canes should be able to play well enough to seriously contend for the Metro, and a third-straight division win for them is a strong possibility.

New Jersey Devils

The New Jersey Devils were the surprise team in the Metro last season, and really in the NHL overall. They took a massive jump from 63 points to 112 points, and nearly won this division.

There were a few obvious reasons for this. Jack Hughes played more than 61 games for the first time in his career, and excelled with 43 goals and 99 points.

Hughes wasn't the only player with a career year. Nico Hischier also set a career high with 81 points while being an excellent defensive center. Dougie Hamilton increased his career high in points by 24. Jesper Bratt scored a career-best 31 goals.

The biggest surprise career season and perhaps the most surprising one was that from goaltender Vitek Vanecek. Vanecek had -10.34 goals saved above expected in two seasons with the Washington Capitals. There was nothing in his profile that suggested he could be an above-average NHL starter.

Vanecek went on to save 13.28 goals above expected for the Devils. This contributed greatly to the Devils' success; they went from a .881% save percentage in 2021-22 to .904% in '22-23. With goaltending being fickle, it remains to be seen if this can continue into this season.

The Devils weren't a classic surprise team that way overperformed their possession numbers. They were second behind only Carolina in expected goals% last season, and were only 17th in shooting percentage last season.

New Jersey will have Timo Meier for the entire season. They made a move to acquire Tyler Toffoli before the draft. That gives them depth scoring on the wings in their top six forwards.

With a young core, the Devils could definitely make the improvements necessary to win this division.

New York Rangers

The New York Rangers finished six points behind the Hurricanes in the Metro last season. There were big expectations for the team after the run to the Eastern Conference Finals in the '21-22 season, and they'll carry over to this season.

The Rangers lost to the rival Devils in the first round last season. This cost Gerard Gallant his job as head coach, perhaps harshly in some people's view.

They followed a similar pattern to that '21-22 team, but didn't get quite the same results. They weren't a team that would dominate possession. In both seasons under Gallant, they were below 50% in five-on-five expected goals.

Instead, they use some elite players to drive results at both ends of the ice. Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider were the top two goals scorers in each of the last two seasons. Artemi Panarin hasn't been in his MVP-candidate form, but is still one of the best playmakers in the league. Adam Fox dictates tempo from defense, and is easily a top-five player in the league at his position.

In net, Igor Shesterkin was by far the best goalie in the NHL in 2021-22, and was nominated for the Hart Trophy. He regressed to just a great goalie in 2022-23, finishing fifth in goals saved above expected. He should at least give them this kind of goaltending in the coming season.

There weren't too many big moves either coming or going for the Rangers. They lost both trade deadline acquisitions to free agency. Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane each contributed, but didn't really ever fit into the lineup comfortably.

The signings of Blake Wheeler, Nick Bonino and Tyler Pitlick add some depth to the bottom six forwards, but don't move the needle too much. Wheeler has shown he still has some gas left in the tank, but now is approaching his age-37 season.

The most worrying signing for the Rangers would be that of Jonathan Quick to be the backup goalie, as he was one of the worst netminders in the league last season.

New coach Peter Laviolette comes in as a guy with a lot of experience and success. He's reached at least the Stanley Cup Final in three of his last four stops, the exception being a brief stop with the Capitals when the team started to age out of contention.

The Rangers are rightly behind the Devils and Hurricanes in the odds. The wild card may be the new coach, who could get the Rangers to play better at five-on-five.

Pittsburgh Penguins

The team with the most interesting offseason in the division was the Pittsburgh Penguins. Things were always going to take a turn when they missed the postseason for the first time since 2006.

Pittsburgh didn't wait long to make a change at general manager, as the writing was on the wall for Ron Hextall. He was fired almost immediately after the season ended on the heels of a tenure that included many questionable moves.

The Penguins hired Kyle Dubas after he parted ways with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Dubas has his detractors, but definitely made some shrewd moves to make Toronto one of the best regular season teams in the league during his time in charge.

A shrewd move is exactly what he did in his first offseason in charge of the Penguins. He went out and acquired Erik Karlsson, the reigning Norris Trophy winner. The San Jose Sharks were so desperate to get out from under Karlsson's contract that they took back Mikael Granlund, and Pittsburgh was also to move Jeff Petry to the Montreal Canadiens in the same deal.

The Karlsson move gives the Penguins a "big four" of players who are all 33 or older, but still playing at a high level. The fact they missed the playoffs last season can't be blamed on Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin, who both averaged more than a point per game.

It was an incredibly tough year personally for Kris Letang, and if he hadn't missed 18 games, maybe the team would have found a way to make the playoffs. Now with the addition of Karlsson, the team will have another player to move the puck on defense if Letang does miss games.

Reilly Smith was also acquired in a trade. He'll be an upgrade compared to Granlund, Kasperi Kapanen and some of the other middle six wingers the Penguins used last season.

Overall, the changes they've made have improved them greatly. If the top two teams slip, the Penguins can definitely be at the top of this division come regular season's end.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.