NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Sunday 11/19/23

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3
NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Sunday 11/19/23

NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.

Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.

Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.

Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate, find a goalie, some stacks, and some value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.


Goalie to Target

Spencer Martin, Columbus Blue Jackets ($6,800)

If you're looking to pivot off the slate's obvious chalk, Spencer Martin ($6,800) provides a quality alternative.

While I'd imagine that John Gibson ($7,500) commands the most popularity against the hapless St. Louis Blues, Martin is having a tremendous personal season and draws a fairly favorable matchup.

In just seven appearances, Martin is 22nd of 71 qualifying goalies in cumulative goals saved above expectation (2.54 GSAx). He's even outperformed normal starter Elvis Merzlikins (2.09 GSAx) in half the starts.

The Philadelphia Flyers' Corsi volume per 60 minutes (58.8) doesn't provide a ton of shot upside, but at just 3.02 expected goals per 60 minutes, their offense isn't particularly prone to a blowup, either.

I wrote up Martin as a reason to take the under on Philly's team total today; he's viable in DFS, too.


Anaheim Ducks

Normally, the Blues have Jordan Binnington in goal to correct the errors they make on the ice, but Binnington should rest Sunday after a 5-1 beatdown last night in Los Angeles.

Binnington (8.33 GSAx) to Joel Hofer (-0.06 GSAx) is quite the drop, and the Anaheim Ducks should benefit. Hofer has allowed 14 goals already in just five starts.

Anaheim is a bit tricky to stack, but we know the general targets. Frank Vatrano ($8,800) is on the top line and second power-play unit with Ryan Strome ($6,000), so the two are a key duo to keep together. Likewise, Mason McTavish ($6,800) and Alex Killorn ($4,800) skate together on the second line and top power-play unit. Unfortunately, Troy Terry ($6,200) and Leo Carlsson ($6,200) don't correlate with anyone at even strength and also 5-on-4, but they do join McTavish and Killorn with a man advantage.

Of course, defenseman Cam Fowler ($5,500) is Anaheim's offensive staple from the blue line and also pairs with McTavish and Killorn.

With several combinations to choose from, the Ducks are the top stack on the slate with plenty of ways to be unique.

Columbus Blue Jackets

While looking at Martin, don't write off the Columbus Blue Jackets' offense in this one.

Philadelphia isn't an ideal matchup, but they'll certainly work on a four-game slate. They only allow 2.64 expected goals per 60 minutes from their skaters, but their goaltender on Sunday should make all the difference. Samuel Ersson is last on the slate by a country mile in GSAx (-5.44).

There isn't ideal, uniform correlation amongst any of the eight teams in action, so I'd just simply mix and match Columbus' top power play, which does encompass realistically their five best offensive players. Boone Jenner ($6,800), Zach Werenski ($6,100), Patrik Laine ($5,700), Adam Fantilli ($5,200), and John Gaudreau ($4,600) make up that unit.

Realistically, this topsy-turvy slate could require leaving plenty of salary on the table, but I feel Columbus is its second-best stack overall -- not just at salary.

Value Skaters

Seth Jones, D, Chicago Blackhawks ($5,400)

As much of a nightmare as it is to stack the Ducks or Jackets, the Chicago Blackhawks and Buffalo Sabres are even worse. We're really limited to one-off type of plays from both.

Defense roles don't get much better on the slate than the one Seth Jones ($5,400) has, though. Jones is averaging a gaudy 25:49 TOI for the 'Hawks on their top line and their top power-play unit. Frankly, his results don't tell the story of how excellent his role has been.

He hasn't scored on 31 shots, and he's only tallied 4 assists in 17 games despite posting 0.35 per game a season ago. I'm expecting his box score results to turn around soon, and numberFire believes it could be as soon as tonight. He's projected for 10.8 FanDuel points on Sunday.

Dylan Cozens, C, Buffalo Sabres ($4,800)

Unfortunately for Buffalo, they'll also be a source of value as they continue to operate in the aftermath of Tage Thompson's upper-body issue.

After the injury, Dylan Cozens ($4,800) now mans their top-line center positions surrounded by two solid scorers, Alex Tuch ($7,200) and Jeff Skinner ($6,600). To this point, he's remained at home on the second power-play unit away from the scorers, so he's not an ideal stack with them. In fact, it's blue-liner Rasmus Dahlin ($6,600) that is a better fit if fully stacking the Sabres.

Still, Cozens can absolutely work as a one-off. He saw 17:38 TOI in Buffalo's first game without Thompson. numberFire projects him for 13.0 FanDuel points today -- the second-best per-dollar value on the slate behind Columbus' Gaudreau from our stacks.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.