NHL Daily Fantasy Picks and Helper: Saturday 12/30/23

NHL DFS is similar to MLB in terms of how you build lineups, how you view stacking, and how to value players.

Two main points to always focus on in NHL DFS are what lines the players are on and making sure the goalies you are rostering are confirmed as the starters.

Two of the best resources for that are LeftWingLock.com and DailyFaceOff.com. That is where you can find updated forward and power-play lines for each team, along with which goalies are confirmed as the starters.

Let's jump in and take a look at today's slate, find a goalie, some stacks, and some value plays for your NHL DFS lineups on FanDuel.

NHL DFS Picks

Goalie to Target

Tristan Jarry, Pittsburgh Penguins ($7,600)

It feels like I write up Tristan Jarry ($7,600) every Saturday, but a combination of a low salary, excellent form, and his ability to post saves in addition to wins is a rare combination.

The Pittsburgh Penguins' netminder is still fifth in the NHL in goals saved above expectation (14.33 GSAx) with a .916 save percentage (Sv%) behind a so-so defense.

At 3.06 expected goals allowed per 60, the Pens grade out as just the 14th-best defensive unit among skaters. That's led to Jarry facing 59.4 Corsi per 60 minutes -- not enough to be overwhelmed yet decent traffic for save points.

Tonight, he'll face a St. Louis Blues squad on the second leg of a back-to-back that's posted 3.01 expected goals per 60 minutes (15th in hockey). It's a fairly neutral matchup.

With all of this in mind, it should be no surprise that numberFire's projections expect 19.7 FanDuel points from Jarry on Saturday, the third-most per dollar of salary on the slate.

Stacks

Toronto Maple Leafs

It's been no secret in NHL circles that the Carolina Hurricanes' goaltending situation is the worst in the league, and any sort of improvements will be put to the test tonight in earnest.

It doesn't get much tougher than the Toronto Maple Leafs in their building. They post 3.58 expected goals per 60 at home (fifth-best in the NHL) and hold a 3.25-goal implied team total this evening.

Carolina will send out Pyotr Kochetkov (-3.37 GSAx), who has been an upgrade over Antti Raanta (-9.82 GSAx), but that's not saying much.

Of course, the Leafs' stacking options are as usual. Auston Matthews ($10,400) and Mitchell Marner ($8,200) are the elite scorers on the first line, and William Nylander ($10,000) pairs with John Tavares ($8,500) on the second line. All four link up with blue-liner Morgan Rielly ($7,300) on one of the league's most lethal power plays (26.5% conversion; fourth-best in NHL).

Toronto has posted at least three tallies in each of their last three meetings with the Canes, so this is a fairly high-floor, contrarian spot against one of the league's better clubs.

Los Angeles Kings

A more obvious stack comes from the league's best team.

The Los Angeles Kings have rediscovered the form that made them champions in 2012 and 2014. The elite defense never really left, but they're second in expected goals per 60 minutes (3.54) entering this sublime matchup with the Edmonton Oilers' mediocre goaltending.

Expect either Calvin Pickard (-1.49 GSAx) or Stuart Skinner (-4.47 GSAx) on the first leg of their back-to-back, yet the two should be expected for similar results.

Of course, I'm not breaking any news with this stack. In addition to a 3.37-goal implied total, this top-line stack has delivered all year. Anze Kopitar ($7,500), Adrian Kempe ($7,200), Drew Doughty ($5,900), and Quinton Byfield ($5,800) correlate in all ice situations, and their average salary is just far too low for the quartet's 42 combined tallies this season.

The one drawback here is extreme popularity, but if there was a bonafide cash-game stack on this slate, you're looking at it.

Value Skaters

Dylan Strome, C, Washington Capitals ($5,700)

It'll be interesting to see how DFS players handle Yaroslav Askarov ($6,500) getting the nod in Washington on Saturday.

Askarov made all six saves needed in his first NHL action this season, but he's still only with the Nashville Predators via emergency circumstances. Askarov's 2.39 GAA in the AHL this year is fine, so will FanDuel managers target him with Washington Capitals, or will they assume the Caps' struggling offense (2.97 expected goals per 60) keeps sputtering?

I prefer the former. After all, Washington's top line has 30 goals this season and can exploit excellent better matchups. If this is one, Dylan Strome ($5,700) is a world-class value plug here with a team-best 13 goals this year.

Strome is joined in all ice conditions by Tom Wilson ($6,400), John Carlson ($6,200), and Alex Ovechkin ($6,100), who somehow has just 6 goals on 124 shots this season. A little regression against the rookie wouldn't be a shock.

They're one of my value stacks on the slate, and Strome -- projected for 13.7 FanDuel points -- gets the shout as the one member who fits the "value" salary criteria.

Brent Burns, D, Carolina Hurricanes ($5,200)

The Maple Leafs are often good for an entire game stack, but for once, they enter this one with the advantage.

I will say that I'm a bit concerned to stack against Toronto's Martin Jones given his strong start with the club. He's posted 3.13 GSAx in seven starts. Now, do I trust it to stick? Not particularly when Jones posted -10.61 GSAx last season.

That's one reason Carolina isn't quite as strong of a stack, but their correlation is also worse. Two first-line forwards, a second-liner, and a third-liner form their power play, so we're leaving plenty to chance at even strength.

My favorite way to bring Toronto stacks back is to just target Brent Burns ($5,200) as the lead defenseman in all ice conditions. Burns' 21:26 TOI average is significantly down at 38 years old, but he's still on the lead man advantage and has tallied five points in his last two games.

Defense is usually a punt-or-spend option, but Burns brings a quality score role for a minimal salary.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.