NHL Betting Picks for Monday 4/1/24: Panthers, Maple Leafs Face Off in Divisional Matchup

The eight-game slate in the NHL tonight contains some intriguing matchups as the 2023-24 regular season gets closer and closer to finishing up.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers

Rangers Moneyline (-192)

This late into the season, the Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Rangers couldn't be more different in how their seasons have turned out.

The Penguins are preparing for an early offseason. New York, however, are fighting for the President's Trophy and will enter the playoffs as one of the top teams. With the Rangers at home tonight, it's easy to take their moneyline to get the victory.

On the season, the Penguins have nonstop struggled at scoring. That's been their main problem, averaging just 2.89 goals for per 60 minutes (GF/60) and ranking 23rd in the NHL. This is despite having a strong expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) average of 3.42. Coming up short in the goal column isn't going to change all of a sudden.

The Rangers have everything working for them. They're in the top 10 with 3.39 GF/60 -- ranking seventh overall. Defensively, they're grea, as well. New York is holding their opponents to 2.71 goals against per 60 minutes (GA/60). Pittsburgh has a respectable mark with 2.91 GA/60, so it's going to come down to who can score in the end -- which is all Rangers.

numberFire's model gives the Rangers a 66.51% likelihood to get the victory -- just a percent better than the 65.8% implied probability of -192 odds.

Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs

Over 6.5 Goals (+102)

The premier matchup of the night is an Atlantic Division battle between the Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs.

Rather than picking a side, taking over 6.5 goals feels like the best bet for tonight. Both of these teams are elite when it comes to lighting up the scoreboard, ranking in the top 15.

The Maple Leafs have the clear edge and are the team we want to have the edg considering how good the Panthers are at keeping the puck out of their own net. Toronto is scoring 3.56 GF/60, the fourth-best rank in the NHL. Florida is 13th in the league with 3.16 GF/60 but do rank second with 3.45 xGF/60.

Where the difficulty will come in hitting the over tonight is with how good the Panthers are at keeping pucks out of their own net. Florida leads all teams with a 2.41 GA/60, making it tough on every team around them. It's why the Maple Leafs' elite scoring will be beneficial for tonight; they'll be tough to stop. Toronto holds their opponents to 3.03 GA/60, which means that the Panthers shouldn't have a problem making it count.

The starting goaltenders for tonight will be Sergei Bobrovsky and Ilya Samsonov. Bobrovsky has a 2.40 goals against average (GAA) and .914 save percentage (SV%), but his recent play is a good sign for the Maple Leafs. The Panthers' netminder has allowed three or more goals in six of his last seven games. Samsonov, on the other hand, hasn't had nearly as strong of a season. He's sporting a 3.03 GAA and .893 SV%, including three-plus goals being allowed in three of his last four games.

These two teams should be able to hit the over tonight in the potential playoff preview.

Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning

Lightning -1.5 (+126)

The Detroit Red Wings and Tampa Bay Lightning are going in two different directions, and it's what we're rolling with tonight.

In the last 10 games, these teams couldn't be more opposite. The Lightning are averaging an insane 4.29 GF/60 while also holding their opponents to 2.39 GA/60. The Red Wings haven't had the same success as you may have guessed. Over the same span, they've scored just 2.57 GF/60. That's not great considering where they were earlier this season. Detroit is also allowing 3.46 GA/60 in the last 10 games, which is the eighth-most in the NHL.

Franky, Tampa Bay is one of the hottest teams in the league. They're 8-1-1 in their last 10 games, so their numbers shouldn't come as a shock. The Red Wings have dropped four straight games, bringing them to a 3-5-2 record in the last 10.

With such good odds that sit at +126, the Lightning have a great chance to cover tonight at -1.5 goals. They've done it the last two games, so there should be confidence in them doing so against a team that has struggled to the point that the Red Wings have.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.